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We develop a theoretical framework to investigate the link between rising scale economies and stagnating productivity. Our model features heterogeneous firms, imperfect competition, and firm selection. We demonstrate that scale economies…
The Machine learning (ML) is a rapidly evolving field of technology that has the potential to greatly impact society in a variety of ways. However, there are also concerns about the potential negative effects of ML on society, such as job…
A growing empirical literature finds that firms pass the cost of minimum wage hikes onto consumers via higher retail prices. Yet, little is known about minimum wage effects on wholesale prices and whether retailers face a wholesale cost…
This study investigates the correlation between dairy farm characteristics and methane concentrations as derived from satellite observations in Eastern Canada. Utilizing data from 11 dairy farms collected between January 2020 and December…
I have analyzed the practicality of the Evans Rule in the state based forward guidance and possible ways to reform it. I examined the biases, measurement errors, and other limitations extant in the unemployment and the inflation rate in the…
We quantify the Tariff Laffer Curve for the U.S. using a multi-sector Ricardian model calibrated to the 2025 US trade war. We find revenue-maximizing tariffs of 20--30 percent and welfare-maximizing rates of 0--10 percent. We define the…
Identifying factors that affect participation is key to a successful insurance scheme. This study's challenges involve using many factors that could affect insurance participation to make a better forecast.Huge numbers of factors affect…
The Humber region in the UK is a large and diverse industrial area centred around oil refining, chemical industries and energy production. However there is currently a desire to see the region transition towards a more bio-based economy.…
We calculate measures of economic complexity for US metropolitan areas for the years 2007-2015 based on industry employment data. We show that the concept of economic complexity translates well from the cross-country to the regional…
We analyse the economics and epidemiology of different scenarios for a phased restart of the UK economy. Our economic model is designed to address the unique features of the COVID-19 pandemic. Social distancing measures affect both supply…
In this paper we investigate the causal impact of the European Union Emissions Trading System, a cap-and-trade scheme limiting greenhouse gas emissions of firms, on their environmental performance. Although previous studies have focused…
Pandemic control measures like lock-down, restrictions on restaurants and gatherings, social-distancing have shown to be effective in curtailing the spread of COVID-19. However, their sustained enforcement has negative economic effects. To…
This paper empirically assesses predictions of Goodwin's model of cyclical growth regarding demand and distributive regimes when integrating the real and financial sectors. In addition, it evaluates how financial and employment shocks…
Crop yields and harvest prices are often considered to be negatively correlated, thus acting as a natural risk management hedge through stabilizing revenues. Storage theory gives reason to believe that the correlation is an increasing…
The physical and economic damages of hurricanes can acutely affect employment and the well-being of employees. However, a comprehensive understanding of these impacts remains elusive as many studies focused on narrow subsets of regions or…
Probabilistic forecasting of power consumption in a middle-term horizon (months to a year) is a main challenge in the energy sector. It plays a key role in planning future generation plants and transmission grid. We propose a new model that…
Even at the beginning of 2008, the economic recession of 2008/09 was not being predicted. The failure to predict recessions is a persistent theme in economic forecasting. The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) provides data on…
Artificial intelligence is reshaping labor markets, yet we lack tools to systematically forecast its effects on employment. This paper introduces a benchmark for evaluating how well large language models (LLMs) can anticipate changes in job…
In the context of energy transition and decarbonization of the economy, several governments will ban the sale of new combustion vehicles by 2050. Thus, growing penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) in distribution networks (DN) is…
This paper examines the short- and long-run effects of U.S. federal personal income and corporate income tax cuts on a wide array of economic policy variables in a data-rich environment. Using a panel of U.S. macroeconomic data set, made up…