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Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-11 Marzieh Ajirak , Anand Ravishankar , Petar M. Djuric

In this work, we consider a wide two-layer neural network and study the behavior of its empirical weights under a dynamics set by a stochastic gradient descent along the quadratic loss with mini-batches and noise. Our goal is to prove a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-02 Arnaud Descours , Arnaud Guillin , Manon Michel , Boris Nectoux

Neural Linear Models (NLM) are deep Bayesian models that produce predictive uncertainties by learning features from the data and then performing Bayesian linear regression over these features. Despite their popularity, few works have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-17 Sujay Thakur , Cooper Lorsung , Yaniv Yacoby , Finale Doshi-Velez , Weiwei Pan

Uncertainty in machine learning is not generally taught as general knowledge in Machine Learning course curricula. In this paper we propose a short curriculum for a course about uncertainty in machine learning, and complement the course…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-20 Matias Valdenegro-Toro

Deep learning models frequently make incorrect predictions with high confidence when presented with test examples that are not well represented in their training dataset. We propose a novel and straightforward approach to estimate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-04 Tiago Ramalho , Miguel Miranda

Large language models (LLMs) specializing in natural language generation (NLG) have recently started exhibiting promising capabilities across a variety of domains. However, gauging the trustworthiness of responses generated by LLMs remains…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-21 Zhen Lin , Shubhendu Trivedi , Jimeng Sun

Quantification of Uncertainty in predictions is a challenging problem. In the classification settings, although deep learning based models generalize well, class probabilities often lack reliability. Calibration errors are used to quantify…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Aditya Challa , Snehanshu Saha , Soma Dhavala

For a large class of feature maps we provide a tight asymptotic characterisation of the test error associated with learning the readout layer, in the high-dimensional limit where the input dimension, hidden layer widths, and number of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-11 Dominik Schröder , Daniil Dmitriev , Hugo Cui , Bruno Loureiro

The inability of artificial neural networks to assess the uncertainty of their predictions is an impediment to their widespread use. We distinguish two types of learnable uncertainty: model uncertainty due to a lack of training data and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Hans Weytjens , Jochen De Weerdt

In this work we use variational inference to quantify the degree of uncertainty in deep learning model predictions of radio galaxy classification. We show that the level of model posterior variance for individual test samples is correlated…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2022-02-09 Devina Mohan , Anna M. M. Scaife , Fiona Porter , Mike Walmsley , Micah Bowles

Evaluation of per-sample uncertainty quantification from neural networks is essential for decision-making involving high-risk applications. A common approach is to use the predictive distribution from Bayesian or approximation models and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-12 H. Martin Gillis , Isaac Xu , Thomas Trappenberg

A major challenge in studying robustness in deep learning is defining the set of ``meaningless'' perturbations to which a given Neural Network (NN) should be invariant. Most work on robustness implicitly uses a human as the reference model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-27 Vedant Nanda , Till Speicher , Camila Kolling , John P. Dickerson , Krishna P. Gummadi , Adrian Weller

Uncertainty quantification is a critical yet unsolved challenge for deep learning, especially for the time series imputation with irregularly sampled measurements. To tackle this problem, we propose a novel framework based on the principles…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-05 Shweta Dahale , Sai Munikoti , Balasubramaniam Natarajan

Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) theory is widely used to study the dynamics of infinitely-wide deep neural networks (DNNs) under gradient descent. But do the results for infinitely-wide networks give us hints about the behavior of real…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-02 Mariia Seleznova , Gitta Kutyniok

It is often said that a deep learning model is "invariant" to some specific type of transformation. However, what is meant by this statement strongly depends on the context in which it is made. In this paper we explore the nature of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-11 Henry Kvinge , Tegan H. Emerson , Grayson Jorgenson , Scott Vasquez , Timothy Doster , Jesse D. Lew

While several methods for predicting uncertainty on deep networks have been recently proposed, they do not readily translate to large and complex datasets. In this paper we utilize a simplified form of the Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-05 Nicholas Wilkins , Michael Johnson , Ifeoma Nwogu

Precise estimation of predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks is a critical requirement for reliable decision-making in machine learning and statistical modeling, particularly in the context of medical AI. Conformal Prediction (CP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-05 Hamed Karimi , Reza Samavi

We study the effect of normalization on the layers of deep neural networks of feed-forward type. A given layer $i$ with $N_{i}$ hidden units is allowed to be normalized by $1/N_{i}^{\gamma_{i}}$ with $\gamma_{i}\in[1/2,1]$ and we study the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-05 Jiahui Yu , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

Weights initialization in deep neural networks have a strong impact on the speed of converge of the learning map. Recent studies have shown that in the case of random initializations, a chaos/order phase transition occur in the space of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-28 Carlos Cardona

Deep neural networks have outperformed existing machine learning models in various molecular applications. In practical applications, it is still difficult to make confident decisions because of the uncertainty in predictions arisen from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-21 Seongok Ryu , Yongchan Kwon , Woo Youn Kim