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Deep learning methods continue to have a decided impact on machine learning, both in theory and in practice. Statistical theoretical developments have been mostly concerned with approximability or rates of estimation when recovering…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-07 Yuexi Wang , Veronika Ročková

Deep neural networks have shown many fruitful applications in this decade. A network can get the generalized function through training with a finite dataset. The degree of generalization is a realization of the proximity scale in the data…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2023-09-15 Kenichi Nakazato

We measure the Out-of-domain uncertainty in the prediction of Neural Networks using a statistical notion called ``Lens Depth'' (LD) combined with Fermat Distance, which is able to capture precisely the ``depth'' of a point with respect to a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-20 Hai-Vy Nguyen , Fabrice Gamboa , Reda Chhaibi , Sixin Zhang , Serge Gratton , Thierry Giaccone

Deep neural networks have seen enormous success in various real-world applications. Beyond their predictions as point estimates, increasing attention has been focused on quantifying the uncertainty of their predictions. In this review, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-06 Chengyu Dong

Probabilistic machine learning techniques can learn both complex relations between input features and output quantities of interest as well as take into account stochasticity or uncertainty within a data set. In this initial work, we…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2020-10-28 A. E. Lovell , A. T. Mohan , P. Talou

Quantifying uncertainty in a model's predictions is important as it enables the safety of an AI system to be increased by acting on the model's output in an informed manner. This is crucial for applications where the cost of an error is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-31 Aria Khoshsirat

Uncertainty Quantification aims to determine when the prediction from a Machine Learning model is likely to be wrong. Computer Vision research has explored methods for determining epistemic uncertainty (also known as model uncertainty),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Prithviraj Manivannan , Ivo Pascal de Jong , Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Andreea Ioana Sburlea

Neural Linear Models (NLM) are deep Bayesian models that produce predictive uncertainty by learning features from the data and then performing Bayesian linear regression over these features. Despite their popularity, few works have focused…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-25 Cooper Lorsung

In-context learning has emerged as a groundbreaking ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) and revolutionized various fields by providing a few task-relevant demonstrations in the prompt. However, trustworthy issues with LLM's response,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-01 Chen Ling , Xujiang Zhao , Xuchao Zhang , Wei Cheng , Yanchi Liu , Yiyou Sun , Mika Oishi , Takao Osaki , Katsushi Matsuda , Jie Ji , Guangji Bai , Liang Zhao , Haifeng Chen

Time-series with volatility clustering pose a unique challenge to uncertainty quantification (UQ) for returns forecasts. Methods for UQ such as Deep Evidential regression offer a simple way of quantifying return forecast uncertainty without…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-20 Steven Y. K. Wong , Jennifer S. K. Chan , Lamiae Azizi

This book chapter introduces the principles and practical applications of uncertainty quantification in machine learning. It explains how to identify and distinguish between different types of uncertainty and presents methods for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-08 Hans Weytjens , Wouter Verbeke

Uncertainty quantification is a critical aspect of machine learning models, providing important insights into the reliability of predictions and aiding the decision-making process in real-world applications. This paper proposes a novel way…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-02 Yusuf Sale , Paul Hofman , Lisa Wimmer , Eyke Hüllermeier , Thomas Nagler

The increasingly wide use of deep machine learning techniques in computational mechanics has significantly accelerated simulations of problems that were considered unapproachable just a few years ago. However, in critical applications such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-01 David Gonzalez , Alba Muixi , Beatriz Moya , Elias Cueto

Invariances in neural networks are useful and necessary for many tasks. However, the representation of the invariance of most neural network models has not been characterized. We propose measures to quantify the invariance of neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-27 Facundo Manuel Quiroga , Jordina Torrents-Barrena , Laura Cristina Lanzarini , Domenec Puig-Valls

Invariances to translations have imbued convolutional neural networks with powerful generalization properties. However, we often do not know a priori what invariances are present in the data, or to what extent a model should be invariant to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-02 Gregory Benton , Marc Finzi , Pavel Izmailov , Andrew Gordon Wilson

As shown in recent research, deep neural networks can perfectly fit randomly labeled data, but with very poor accuracy on held out data. This phenomenon indicates that loss functions such as cross-entropy are not a reliable indicator of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-13 Yiding Jiang , Dilip Krishnan , Hossein Mobahi , Samy Bengio

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD), one of the most fundamental optimization algorithms in machine learning (ML), can be recast through a continuous-time approximation as a Fokker-Planck equation for Langevin dynamics, a viewpoint that has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-19 Hiroshi Horii , Sothea Has

We provide single-model estimates of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty for deep neural networks. To estimate aleatoric uncertainty, we propose Simultaneous Quantile Regression (SQR), a loss function to learn all the conditional quantiles…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-09 Natasa Tagasovska , David Lopez-Paz

In a world where more decisions are made using artificial intelligence, it is of utmost importance to ensure these decisions are well-grounded. Neural networks are the modern building blocks for artificial intelligence. Modern neural…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Mohamad Al Shaar , Nils Ekström , Gustav Gille , Reza Rezvan , Ivan Wely

Virtual Diagnostic (VD) is a deep learning tool that can be used to predict a diagnostic output. VDs are especially useful in systems where measuring the output is invasive, limited, costly or runs the risk of damaging the output. Given a…

Accelerator Physics · Physics 2021-08-02 Owen Convery , Lewis Smith , Yarin Gal , Adi Hanuka