Related papers: Inference Scaling Reshapes AI Governance

Inference in large-scale AI models is typically performed on dense parameter matrices, leading to inference cost and system complexity that scale unsustainably with model size. This limitation does not arise from insufficient model…

Training advanced AI models requires large investments in computational resources, or compute. Yet, as hardware innovation reduces the price of compute and algorithmic advances make its use more efficient, the cost of training an AI model…

The past decade has seen incredible scaling of AI systems by a few companies, leading to inequality in AI model performance. This paper argues that, contrary to prevailing intuition, the diminishing returns to compute scaling will lead to a…

Inference-time scaling can enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) on complex problems that benefit from step-by-step problem solving. Although lengthening generated scratchpads has proven effective for…

Recently, Zaremba et al. demonstrated that increasing inference-time computation improves robustness in large proprietary reasoning LLMs. In this paper, we first show that smaller-scale, open-source models (e.g., DeepSeek R1, Qwen3,…

The rapid expansion of AI inference services in the cloud necessitates a robust scalability solution to manage dynamic workloads and maintain high performance. This study proposes a comprehensive scalability optimization framework for cloud…

An artificial intelligence (AI) model can be viewed as a function that maps inputs to outputs in high-dimensional spaces. Once designed and well trained, the AI model is applied for inference. However, even optimized AI models can produce…

As AI systems advance beyond human capabilities, scalable oversight becomes critical: how can we supervise AI that exceeds our abilities? A key challenge is that human evaluators may form incorrect beliefs about AI behavior in complex…

Incremental learning is useful if an AI agent needs to integrate data from a stream. The problem is non trivial if the agent runs on a limited computational budget and has a bounded memory of past data. In a deep learning approach, the…

This year, jurisdictions worldwide, including the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and China, are set to enact or revise laws governing frontier AI. Their efforts largely rely on the assumption that increasing model…

Advances in low-communication training algorithms are enabling a shift from centralised model training to compute setups that are either distributed across multiple clusters or decentralised via community-driven contributions. This paper…

We conduct experiments on the impact of increasing inference-time compute in reasoning models (specifically OpenAI o1-preview and o1-mini) on their robustness to adversarial attacks. We find that across a variety of attacks, increased…

Enabling LLMs to improve their outputs by using more test-time computation is a critical step towards building generally self-improving agents that can operate on open-ended natural language. In this paper, we study the scaling of…

At face value, this essay is about understanding a fairly esoteric governance tool called compute thresholds. However, in order to grapple with whether these thresholds will achieve anything, we must first understand how they came to be. To…

We examine the reasoning and planning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) in solving complex tasks. Recent advances in inference-time techniques demonstrate the potential to enhance LLM reasoning without additional training by…

Large language models have become a powerful method for feature augmentation in recommendation systems. However, existing approaches relying on quick inference often suffer from incomplete feature coverage and insufficient specificity in…

Predicting changes from scaling advanced AI systems is a desirable property for engineers, economists, governments and industry alike, and, while a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, predictable…

Machine learning is a computational process. To that end, it is inextricably tied to computational power - the tangible material of chips and semiconductors that the algorithms of machine intelligence operate on. Most obviously,…

How does scaling the number of parameters in large language models (LLMs) affect their core capabilities? We study two natural scaling techniques -- weight pruning and simply training a smaller or larger model, which we refer to as dense…

With the growing attention and investment in recent AI approaches such as large language models, the narrative that the larger the AI system the more valuable, powerful and interesting it is is increasingly seen as common sense. But what is…