Related papers: BARK: A Fully Bayesian Tree Kernel for Black-box O…

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

Sequential model-based optimization sequentially selects a candidate point by constructing a surrogate model with the history of evaluations, to solve a black-box optimization problem. Gaussian process (GP) regression is a popular choice as…

Bayesian optimization with Gaussian process as surrogate model has been successfully applied to analog circuit synthesis. In the traditional Gaussian process regression model, the kernel functions are defined explicitly. The computational…

We propose an extrinsic Bayesian optimization (eBO) framework for general optimization problems on manifolds. Bayesian optimization algorithms build a surrogate of the objective function by employing Gaussian processes and quantify the…

We present a Bayesian approach to model cohort-level retention rates and revenue over time. We use Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) to model the retention component which we couple with a linear model for the revenue component.…

Vector autoregression (VAR) models are widely used for forecasting and macroeconomic analysis, yet they remain limited by their reliance on a linear parameterization. Recent research has introduced nonparametric alternatives, such as…

The ratio of two densities provides a direct characterization of their differences. We consider the two-sample comparison problem by estimating this ratio given i.i.d. observations from two distributions. To this end, we propose additive…

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a data-driven strategy for minimizing/maximizing black-box functions based on probabilistic surrogate models. In the presence of safety constraints, the performance of BO crucially relies on tight probabilistic…

The combination of Monte Carlo tree search and neural networks has revolutionized online planning. As neural network approximations are often imperfect, we ask whether uncertainty estimates about the network outputs could be used to improve…

Bayesian optimization is a popular formalism for global optimization, but its computational costs limit it to expensive-to-evaluate functions. A competing, computationally more efficient, global optimization framework is optimistic…

Bayesian optimization is a coherent, ubiquitous approach to decision-making under uncertainty, with applications including multi-arm bandits, active learning, and black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization selects decisions (i.e.…

For Bayesian optimization (BO) on high-dimensional data with complex structure, neural network-based kernels for Gaussian processes (GPs) have been used to learn flexible surrogate functions by the high representation power of deep…

In this paper, we consider improving the efficiency of information-based autonomous robot exploration in unknown and complex environments. We first utilize Gaussian process (GP) regression to learn a surrogate model to infer the…

Flexibly modeling how an entire density changes with covariates is an important but challenging generalization of mean and quantile regression. While existing methods for density regression primarily consist of covariate-dependent discrete…

Bayesian optimization is a powerful tool for expensive stochastic black-box optimization problems such as simulation-based optimization or machine learning hyperparameter tuning. Many stochastic objective functions implicitly require a…

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a powerful tool for black-box optimization, but its application to high-dimensional permutation spaces is severely limited by the challenge of defining scalable representations. The current state-of-the-art BO…

Traditional methods for black box optimization require a considerable number of evaluations which can be time consuming, unpractical, and often unfeasible for many engineering applications that rely on accurate representations and expensive…

Bayesian optimisation (BO) uses probabilistic surrogate models - usually Gaussian processes (GPs) - for the optimisation of expensive black-box functions. At each BO iteration, the GP hyperparameters are fit to previously-evaluated data by…

General circulation models (GCMs) are essential tools for climate studies. Such climate models may have varying accuracy across the input domain, but no model is uniformly best. One can improve climate model prediction performance by…

Gaussian processes are important models in the field of probabilistic numerics. We present a procedure for optimizing Mat\'ern kernel temporal Gaussian processes with respect to the kernel covariance function's hyperparameters. It is based…