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Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Yao Zhang , Emmanuel J. Candès

Ordinal classification has been widely applied in many high-stakes applications, e.g., medical imaging and diagnosis, where reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for decision making. Conformal prediction (CP) is a general UQ…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Zijian Zhang , Xinyu Chen , Yuanjie Shi , Liyuan Lillian Ma , Zifan Xu , Yan Yan

Conformal prediction (CP) quantifies the uncertainty of machine learning models by constructing sets of plausible outputs. These sets are constructed by leveraging a so-called conformity score, a quantity computed using the input point of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-07 Michal Klein , Louis Bethune , Eugene Ndiaye , Marco Cuturi

Conformal prediction is a framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets for previously unseen data, guaranteeing coverage of the true label with a specified probability. However, the efficiency of these prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

In high-stakes scenarios, such as medical imaging applications, it is critical to equip the predictions of a regression model with reliable confidence intervals. Recently, Conformal Prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-19 Yahav Cohen , Jacob Goldberger , Tom Tirer

Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with guaranteed marginal coverage. However, in split conformal prediction this guarantee is training-conditional only in expectation: across many calibration draws, the average…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Petrus H. Zwart

Adversarial examples pose a security threat to many critical systems built on neural networks (such as face recognition systems, and self-driving cars). While many methods have been proposed to build robust models, how to build certifiably…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Ruihan Zhang , Peixin Zhang , Jun Sun

We propose Bayesian Conformal Prediction (BCP), a framework that combines Bayesian posterior predictive distributions with PAC-style conformal risk control to produce prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Fanyi Wu , Veronika Lohmanova , Samuel Kaski , Michele Caprio

Conformal prediction (CP) is a method for constructing a prediction interval around the output of a fitted model, whose validity does not rely on the model being correct--the CP interval offers a coverage guarantee that is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-17 Aabesh Bhattacharyya , Rina Foygel Barber

Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees under an exchangeability assumption, but these guarantees can fail if the data distribution shifts. We analyze the use of pseudo-calibration as a tool to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Farbod Siahkali , Ashwin Verma , Vijay Gupta

We introduce a framework for robust uncertainty quantification in situations where labeled training data are corrupted, through noisy or missing labels. We build on conformal prediction, a statistical tool for generating prediction sets…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Shai Feldman , Stephen Bates , Yaniv Romano

Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free, finite-sample coverage guarantees but critically relies on exchangeability, a condition often violated under distribution shift. We study the robustness of split conformal prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-23 Xunlei Qian , Yue Xing

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Recent work develops online conformal prediction methods that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Huajun Xi , Kangdao Liu , Hao Zeng , Wenguang Sun , Hongxin Wei

Conformal predictions make it possible to define reliable and robust learning algorithms. But they are essentially a method for evaluating whether an algorithm is good enough to be used in practice. To define a reliable learning framework…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-18 Alberto Carlevaro , Teodoro Alamo Cantarero , Fabrizio Dabbene , Maurizio Mongelli

Conformal prediction constructs a set of labels instead of a single point prediction, while providing a probabilistic coverage guarantee. Beyond the coverage guarantee, adaptiveness to example difficulty is an important property. It means…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Sooyong Jang , Insup Lee

Conformal prediction provides finite-sample, distribution-free coverage under exchangeability, but standard constructions may lack robustness in the presence of outliers or heavy tails. We propose a robust conformal method based on a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Alejandro Cholaquidis , Emilien Joly , Leonardo Moreno

In many fairness and distribution robustness problems, one has access to labeled data from multiple source distributions yet the test data may come from an arbitrary member or a mixture of them. We study the problem of constructing a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-07 Yuqi Yang , Ying Jin

Models for image segmentation, node classification and many other tasks map a single input to multiple labels. By perturbing this single shared input (e.g. the image) an adversary can manipulate several predictions (e.g. misclassify several…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-27 Jan Schuchardt , Tom Wollschläger , Aleksandar Bojchevski , Stephan Günnemann

Conformal prediction (CP) is a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models, offering reliable predictions with finite-sample coverage guarantees. When applied to classification, CP produces a prediction set of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Floris den Hengst , Inès Blin , Majid Mohammadi , Syed Ihtesham Hussain Shah , Taraneh Younesian

Data-driven surrogate models offer quick approximations to complex numerical and experimental systems but typically lack uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability in safety-critical applications. While Bayesian methods provide…