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Reliable uncertainty quantification on RUL prediction is crucial for informative decision-making in predictive maintenance. In this context, we assess some of the latest developments in the field of uncertainty quantification for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-10 Luis Basora , Arthur Viens , Manuel Arias Chao , Xavier Olive

Data-driven methods based on machine learning have the potential to accelerate computational analysis of atomic structures. In this context, reliable uncertainty estimates are important for assessing confidence in predictions and enabling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-04 Jonas Busk , Peter Bjørn Jørgensen , Arghya Bhowmik , Mikkel N. Schmidt , Ole Winther , Tejs Vegge

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-11 Marzieh Ajirak , Anand Ravishankar , Petar M. Djuric

Mixed precision quantization has become an important technique for optimizing the execution of deep neural networks (DNNs). Certified robustness, which provides provable guarantees about a model's ability to withstand different adversarial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-29 Yuchen Yang , Yifan Zhao , Shubham Ugare , Gagandeep Singh , Sasa Misailovic

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in text generation, reasoning, and decision-making, enabling their adoption in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, law, and transportation. However, their reliability is a major concern, as they often…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Xiaoou Liu , Tiejin Chen , Longchao Da , Chacha Chen , Zhen Lin , Hua Wei

Ensemble learning is a standard approach to building machine learning systems that capture complex phenomena in real-world data. An important aspect of these systems is the complete and valid quantification of model uncertainty. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-12 Jeremiah Zhe Liu , John Paisley , Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou , Brent Coull

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential for creating trustworthy machine learning models. Recent years have seen a steep rise in UQ methods that can flag suspicious examples, however, it is often unclear what exactly these methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Hao Sun , Boris van Breugel , Jonathan Crabbe , Nabeel Seedat , Mihaela van der Schaar

We propose a method for training a deterministic deep model that can find and reject out of distribution data points at test time with a single forward pass. Our approach, deterministic uncertainty quantification (DUQ), builds upon ideas of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-30 Joost van Amersfoort , Lewis Smith , Yee Whye Teh , Yarin Gal

Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning (ML) models is a foundational challenge in modern data analysis. This challenge is compounded by at least two key aspects of the field: (a) inconsistent terminology surrounding uncertainty and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Shubhendu Trivedi , Brian D. Nord

The advance of Large Language Models (LLMs) has greatly stimulated research interest in developing multi-modal LLM (MLLM)-based visual anomaly detection (VAD) algorithms that can be deployed in complex environments. The challenge is that in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Congjing Zhang , Feng Lin , Xinyi Zhao , Pei Guo , Wei Li , Lin Chen , Chaoyue Zhao , Shuai Huang

Efficiently and meaningfully estimating prediction uncertainty is important for exploration in active learning campaigns in materials discovery, where samples with high uncertainty are interpreted as containing information missing from the…

Materials Science · Physics 2025-11-25 Ashley S. Dale , Kangming Li , Brian DeCost , Hao Wan , Yuchen Han , Yao Fehlis , Jason Hattrick-Simpers

Uncertainty-quantification methods are applied to estimate the confidence of deep-neural-networks classifiers over their predictions. However, most widely used methods are known to be overconfident. We address this problem by developing an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Luigi Sbailò , Luca M. Ghiringhelli

When does a large language model (LLM) know what it does not know? Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides measures of uncertainty, such as an estimate of the confidence in an LLM's generated output, and is therefore increasingly…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Debarun Bhattacharjya , Balaji Ganesan , Junkyu Lee , Radu Marinescu , Katsiaryna Mirylenka , Michael Glass , Xiao Shou

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning regression is of wide interest, as it supports critical applications including sequential decision making and risk-sensitive tasks. In heteroskedastic regression, where the uncertainty of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Mikkel Jordahn , Jonas Vestergaard Jensen , James Harrison , Michael Riis Andersen , Mikkel N. Schmidt

Uncertainty estimation in deep learning has become a leading research field in medical image analysis due to the need for safe utilisation of AI algorithms in clinical practice. Most approaches for uncertainty estimation require sampling…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-04-12 Kaisar Kushibar , Víctor Manuel Campello , Lidia Garrucho Moras , Akis Linardos , Petia Radeva , Karim Lekadir

Neural network (NN) potentials promise highly accurate molecular dynamics (MD) simulations within the computational complexity of classical MD force fields. However, when applied outside their training domain, NN potential predictions can…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-07-28 Stephan Thaler , Gregor Doehner , Julija Zavadlav

Automatic modulation classification (AMC) is a key technique for designing non-cooperative communication systems, and deep learning (DL) is applied effectively to AMC for improving classification accuracy. However, most of the DL-based AMC…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-04-25 Lantu Guo , Yu Wang , Yun Lin , Haitao Zhao , Guan Gui

We present a critical survey on the consistency of uncertainty quantification used in deep learning and highlight partial uncertainty coverage and many inconsistencies. We then provide a comprehensive and statistically consistent framework…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-14 Peter Jan van Leeuwen , J. Christine Chiu , C. Kevin Yang

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is an important building block for the reliable use of neural networks in real-world scenarios, as it can be a useful tool in identifying faulty predictions. Speech emotion recognition (SER) models can suffer…

Sound · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Oliver Schrüfer , Manuel Milling , Felix Burkhardt , Florian Eyben , Björn Schuller

Understanding and quantifying uncertainty in black box Neural Networks (NNs) is critical when deployed in real-world settings such as healthcare. Recent works using Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods have shown how a unified predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-29 Utkarsh Sarawgi , Wazeer Zulfikar , Rishab Khincha , Pattie Maes
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