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The empirical literature on program evaluation limits its scope almost exclusively to models where treatment effects are homogenous for observationally identical individuals. This paper considers a treatment effect model in which treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-20 Jason Abrevaya , Haiqing Xu

Panel data methods are widely used in empirical analysis to address unobserved heterogeneity, but causal inference remains challenging when treatments are endogenous and confounding variables high-dimensional and potentially nonlinear.…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-24 Anna Baiardi , Paul S. Clarke , Andrea A. Naghi , Annalivia Polselli

In response to the increasing complexity of policy environments and the proliferation of high-dimensional data, this paper introduces the S-DIDML estimator a framework grounded in structure and semiparametrically flexible for causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-15 Yile Yu , Anzhi Xu

A common issue in learning decision-making policies in data-rich settings is spurious correlations in the offline dataset, which can be caused by hidden confounders. Instrumental variable (IV) regression, which utilises a key unconfounded…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Daqian Shao , Ashkan Soleymani , Francesco Quinzan , Marta Kwiatkowska

Many studies exploit variation in the timing of policy adoption across units as an instrument for treatment. This paper formalizes the underlying identification strategy as an instrumented difference-in-differences (DID-IV). In this design,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-13 Sho Miyaji

The endogeneity issue is fundamentally important as many empirical applications may suffer from the omission of explanatory variables, measurement error, or simultaneous causality. Recently, \cite{hllt17} propose a "Deep Instrumental…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-01 Ruiqi Liu , Zuofeng Shang , Guang Cheng

The double/debiased machine learning (DML) framework has become a cornerstone of modern causal inference, allowing researchers to utilise flexible machine learning models for the estimation of nuisance functions without introducing…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-19 Charles Shaw

There is an increasing interest in estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in randomized and observational studies. However, little research has been conducted to understand heterogeneity in an instrumental variables study. In this work,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-20 Michael Johnson , Jiongyi Cao , Hyunseung Kang

Traditional instrumental variable (IV) estimators face a fundamental constraint: they can only accommodate as many endogenous treatment variables as available instruments. This limitation becomes particularly challenging in settings where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Shiangyi Lin , Hui Lan , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Instrumental variables (IV) regression is a popular method for the estimation of the endogenous treatment effects. Conventional IV methods require all the instruments are relevant and valid. However, this is impractical especially in…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-29 Qingliang Fan , Yaqian Wu

Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

Many treatment variables used in empirical applications nest multiple unobserved versions of a treatment. I show that instrumental variable (IV) estimands for the effect of a composite treatment are IV-specific weighted averages of effects…

General Economics · Economics 2022-11-24 Clint Harris

Standard instrumental variables (IV) methods identify a Local Average Treatment Effect under monotonicity, which rules out defiers. In many empirical environments, however, distinct instruments may induce heterogeneous and even opposing…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-16 Johann Caro-Burnett

In the last decade, machine learning techniques have gained popularity for estimating causal effects. One machine learning approach that can be used for estimating an average treatment effect is Double/debiased machine learning (DML)…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-17 Daniele Ballinari , Nora Bearth

We offer straightforward theoretical results that justify incorporating machine learning in the standard linear instrumental variable setting. The key idea is to use machine learning, combined with sample-splitting, to predict the treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-06-22 Jiafeng Chen , Daniel L. Chen , Greg Lewis

Instrumental variables (IV) regression is widely used to estimate causal treatment effects in settings where receipt of treatment is not fully random, but there exists an instrument that generates exogenous variation in treatment exposure.…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-08-10 Stephen Coussens , Jann Spiess

Machine learning methods, particularly the double machine learning (DML) estimator (Chernozhukov et al., 2018), are increasingly popular for the estimation of the average treatment effect (ATE). However, datasets often exhibit unbalanced…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-12 Daniele Ballinari

In observational studies, treatments are typically not randomized and therefore estimated treatment effects may be subject to confounding bias. The instrumental variable (IV) design plays the role of a quasi-experimental handle since the IV…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-30 Lan Liu , Wang Miao , Baoluo Sun , James Robins , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

We propose a doubly robust inference method for causal effects of continuous treatment variables, under unconfoundedness and with nonparametric or high-dimensional nuisance functions. Our double debiased machine learning (DML) estimators…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-02 Kyle Colangelo , Ying-Ying Lee

Chernozhukov, Chetverikov, Demirer, Duflo, Hansen, and Newey (2016) provide a generic double/de-biased machine learning (DML) approach for obtaining valid inferential statements about focal parameters, using Neyman-orthogonal scores and…

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