Related papers: Estimating weak Markov-switching AR(1) models
In this contribution we introduce weakly locally stationary time series through the local approximation of the non-stationary covariance structure by a stationary one. This allows us to define autoregression coefficients in a non-stationary…
The functional autoregressive model is a Markov model taylored for data of functional nature. It revealed fruitful when attempting to model samples of dependent random curves and has been widely studied along the past few years. This…
In many statistical signal processing applications, the estimation of nuisance parameters and parameters of interest is strongly linked to the resulting performance. Generally, these applications deal with complex data. This paper focuses…
In this paper we introduce a modified version of a gaussian standard first-order autoregressive process where we allow for a dependence structure between the state variable $Y_{t-1}$ and the next innovation $\xi_t$. We call this model…
Current time-series forecasting models are primarily based on transformer-style neural networks. These models achieve long-term forecasting mainly by scaling up the model size rather than through genuinely autoregressive (AR) rollout. From…
We consider a time-varying first-order autoregressive model with irregular innovations, where we assume that the coefficient function is H\"{o}lder continuous. To estimate this function, we use a quasi-maximum likelihood based approach. A…
The asymptotic normality in multi-dimension of the nonparametric estimator of the transition probabilities of a Markov renewal chain is proved, and is applied to that of other nonparametric estimators involved with the associated…
A general jackknife estimator for the asymptotic covariance of moment estimators is considered in the case when the sample is taken from a mixture with varying concentrations of components. Consistency of the estimator is demonstrated. A…
This project revolves around studying estimators for parameters in different Time Series models and studying their assymptotic properties. We introduce various bootstrap techniques for the estimators obtained. Our special emphasis is on…
A Markov-switching observation-driven model is a stochastic process $((S_t,Y_t))_{t \in \mathbb{Z}}$ where $(S_t)_{t \in \mathbb{Z}}$ is an unobserved Markov chain on a finite set and $(Y_t)_{t \in \mathbb{Z}}$ is an observed stochastic…
In this paper, we study the problem of estimating the autocovariance sequence resulting from a reversible Markov chain. A motivating application for studying this problem is the estimation of the asymptotic variance in central limit…
We study semiparametric inference in some linear regression models with time-varying coefficients, dependent regressors and dependent errors. This problem, which has been considered recently by Zhang and Wu (2012) under the functional…
In $M$-estimation under standard asymptotics, the weak convergence combined with the polynomial type large deviation estimate of the associated statistical random field Yoshida (2011) provides us with not only the asymptotic distribution of…
Switching ARMA models greatly enhance the standard linear models to the extent that different ARMA model is allowed in a different regime, and the regime switching is typically assumed a Markov chain on the finite states of potential…
The space time autoregressive model has been widely applied in science, in areas such as economics, public finance, political science, agricultural economics, environmental studies and transportation analyses. The classical space time…
Consider the problem of joint parameter estimation and prediction in a Markov random field: i.e., the model parameters are estimated on the basis of an initial set of data, and then the fitted model is used to perform prediction (e.g.,…
Markov regime switching models have been widely used in numerous empirical applications in economics and finance. However, the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) has not been proven for some empirically…
Change point analysis has become an important research topic in many fields of applications. Several research work has been carried out to detect changes and its locations in time series data. In this paper, a nonparametric method based on…
The problem of quickest change detection (QCD) in autoregressive (AR) models is investigated. A system is being monitored with sequentially observed samples. At some unknown time, a disturbance signal occurs and changes the distribution of…
The paper deals with the nonparametric estimation problem at a given fixed point for an autoregressive model with unknown distributed noise. Kernel estimate modifications are proposed. Asymptotic minimax and efficiency properties for…