Related papers: How manipulable are prediction markets?
The dynamics of market prices is described as the evolution of opinions in the trading community regarding future market behavior. The price then is a function of the voting process of the market players in favor to raise or reduce the…
Modern evolvements of the technologies have been leading to a profound influence on the financial market. The introduction of constituents like Exchange-Traded Funds, and the wide-use of advanced technologies such as algorithmic trading,…
The ability to predict social interactions between people has profound applications including targeted marketing and prediction of information diffusion and disease propagation. Previous work has shown that the location of an individual at…
Auctions are markets with strict regulations governing the information available to traders in the market and the possible actions they can take. Since well designed auctions achieve desirable economic outcomes, they have been widely used…
Prices in financial markets exhibit extreme jumps far more often than can be accounted for by external news. Further, magnitudes of price changes are correlated over long times. These so called stylized facts are quantified by scaling laws…
We study overpricing in a repeated game between two representative agents: a market maker, who controls market liquidity, and a market taker, who chooses trade quantities. Market prices evolve through the endogenous price impact of trades…
It is important to study how strategic agents can affect the outcome of an election. There has been a long line of research in the computational study of elections on the complexity of manipulative actions such as manipulation and bribery.…
Prediction markets allow traders to bet on potential future outcomes. These markets exist for weather, political, sports, and economic forecasting. Within this work we consider a decentralized framework for prediction markets using…
Combining models in appropriate ways to achieve high performance is commonly seen in machine learning fields today. Although a large amount of combinatorial models have been created, little attention is drawn to the commons in different…
Time series models, typically trained on numerical data, are designed to forecast future values. These models often rely on weighted averaging techniques over time intervals. However, real-world time series data is seldom isolated and is…
This paper deals with a fundamental subject that has seldom been addressed in recent years, that of market impact in the options market. Our analysis is based on a proprietary database of metaorders-large orders that are split into smaller…
This paper conducts an empirically study on the trade package composed of a sequence of consecutive purchases or sales of 23 stocks in Chinese stock market. We investigate the probability distributions of the execution time, the number of…
A 24-hour exchange market was created on the Web to trade political futures contracts using fictitious money. In this online market, a political futures contract is a futures contract which matures on the election day with a liquidation…
In this paper, inspired by the work of Megiddo on the formation of preferences and strategic analysis, we consider an early market model studied in the field of economic theory, in which each trader's utility may be influenced by the…
In an online prediction market, forecasters who could not see the current state of the market until they made their own separate estimates moved their estimates closer to the market forecast when the current state of the market became…
We document a mechanism operating in complex adaptive systems leading to dynamical pockets of predictability (``prediction days''), in which agents collectively take predetermined courses of action, transiently decoupled from past history.…
The lack of predictability of citation-based measures frequently used to gauge impact, from impact factors to short-term citations, raises a fundamental question: Is there long-term predictability in citation patterns? Here, we derive a…
In the over-the-counter market in derivatives, we sometimes see large numbers of traders taking the same position and risk. When there is this kind of concentration in the market, the position impacts the pricings of all other derivatives…
We consider a financial market in which traders potentially face restrictions in trading some of the available securities. Traders are heterogeneous with respect to their beliefs and risk profiles, and the market is assumed thin: traders…
We present a set of models of the main stylized facts of market price fluctuations. These models comprise dynamical evolution with threshold dynamics and Langevin price equation with multiplicative noise, percolation models to describe the…