Related papers: Enhancing Efficiency of Local Projections Estimati…
Over the last few years there have been dramatic advances in our understanding of mathematical and computational models of complex systems in the presence of uncertainty. This has led to a growth in the area of uncertainty quantification as…
Accurate prediction of financial market volatility is critical for risk management, derivatives pricing, and investment strategy. In this study, we propose a multitude of regime-switching methods to improve the prediction of S&P 500…
In this paper, we revisit the large-scale constrained linear regression problem and propose faster methods based on some recent developments in sketching and optimization. Our algorithms combine (accelerated) mini-batch SGD with a new…
Volatility forecasting in financial markets is a topic that has received more attention from scholars. In this paper, we propose a new volatility forecasting model that combines the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model with a family of…
This paper introduces a spatiotemporal exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (spatiotemporal E-GARCH) model, extending traditional spatiotemporal GARCH models by incorporating asymmetric volatility…
This paper presents a comparative analysis of univariate and multivariate GARCH-family models and machine learning algorithms in modeling and forecasting the volatility of major energy commodities: crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and…
Clustering points in a vector space or nodes in a graph is a ubiquitous primitive in statistical data analysis, and it is commonly used for exploratory data analysis. In practice, it is often of interest to "refine" or "improve" a given…
We perform the Bayesian inference of a GARCH model by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with an adaptive proposal density. The adaptive proposal density is assumed to be the Student's t-distribution and the distribution parameters are…
This paper is devoted to problem of detecting critical events at finiacial markets using methods of multifractal analysis. Namely, the local regularity of time-series is studied. As a result, one can find out a special behavior or signal of…
Local projections (LP) and vector autoregressions (VAR) are the two standard tools for impulse response analysis, but they often display a finite-sample trade-off: LP is typically less biased but more volatile, while VAR is more precise but…
Regional flood frequency analysis is a convenient way to reduce estimation uncertainty when few data are available at the gauging site. In this work, a model that allows a non-null probability to a regional fixed shape parameter is…
Heteroscedastic regression considering the varying noises among observations has many applications in the fields like machine learning and statistics. Here we focus on the heteroscedastic Gaussian process (HGP) regression which integrates…
In this paper, we study time-varying graphical models based on data measured over a temporal grid. Such models are motivated by the needs to describe and understand evolving interacting relationships among a set of random variables in many…
In this paper we present a locally and dimension-adaptive sparse grid method for interpolation and integration of high-dimensional functions with discontinuities. The proposed algorithm combines the strengths of the generalised sparse grid…
The impact of an extreme climate event depends strongly on its geographical scale. Max-stable processes can be used for the statistical investigation of climate extremes and their spatial dependencies on a continuous area. Most existing…
What should applied macroeconomists know about local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) impulse response estimators? The two methods share the same estimand, but in finite samples lie on opposite ends of a bias-variance…
Forecasting groups of time series is of increasing practical importance, e.g. forecasting the demand for multiple products offered by a retailer or server loads within a data center. The local approach to this problem considers each time…
The increasing scale of data propels the popularity of leveraging parallelism to speed up the optimization. Minibatch stochastic gradient descent (minibatch SGD) and local SGD are two popular methods for parallel optimization. The existing…
In economic development, there are often regions that share similar economic characteristics, and economic models on such regions tend to have similar covariate effects. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian clustered regression for…
Generalized belief propagation (GBP) has proven to be a promising technique for approximate inference tasks in AI and machine learning. However, the choice of a good set of clusters to be used in GBP has remained more of an art then a…