Related papers: Forecasting realized volatility in the stock marke…

High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models provide a flexible framework for characterizing dynamic dependence in multivariate spatio-temporal systems, but their unrestricted estimation becomes infeasible when multiple variables are…

Based on the commentary data of the Shenzhen Stock Index bar on the EastMoney website from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2019. This paper extracts the embedded investor sentiment by using a deep learning BERT model and investigates the…

We propose a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model for mixed-frequency data. Our model is based on the mean-adjusted parametrization of the VAR and allows for an explicit prior on the 'steady states' (unconditional means) of the…

Many financial and economic variables, including financial returns, exhibit nonlinear dependence, heterogeneity and heavy-tailedness. These properties may make problematic the analysis of (non-)efficiency and volatility clustering in…

Great research efforts have been devoted to exploiting deep neural networks in stock prediction. While long-range dependencies and chaotic property are still two major issues that lower the performance of state-of-the-art deep learning…

This paper introduces a unified approach for modeling high-frequency financial data that can accommodate both the continuous-time jump-diffusion and discrete-time realized GARCH model by embedding the discrete realized GARCH structure in…

This paper introduces a novel process for both factor and idiosyncratic volatility matrices whose eigenvalues follow the vector auto-regressive (VAR) model. We call it the factor and idiosyncratic VAR (FIVAR) model. The FIVAR model accounts…

In an environment of increasingly volatile financial markets, the accurate estimation of risk remains a major challenge. Traditional econometric models, such as GARCH and its variants, are based on assumptions that are often too rigid to…

It is well documented that a model for the underlying asset price process that seeks to capture the behaviour of the market prices of vanilla options needs to exhibit both diffusion and jump features. In this paper we assume that the asset…

Constructing a more effective value at risk (VaR) prediction model has long been a goal in financial risk management. In this paper, we propose a novel parametric approach and provide a standard paradigm to demonstrate the modeling. We…

We consider weighted directed networks for analysing, over the period 2000-2013, the interdependencies between volatilities of a large panel of stocks belonging to the S\&P100 index. In particular, we focus on the so-called {\it Long-Run…

Accurate forecasting in the e-commerce finance domain is particularly challenging due to irregular invoice schedules, payment deferrals, and user-specific behavioral variability. These factors, combined with sparse datasets and short…

We study an optimal investment/consumption problem in a model capturing market and credit risk dependencies. Stochastic factors drive both the default intensity and the volatility of the stocks in the portfolio. We use the martingale…

The reduced-rank vector autoregressive (VAR) model can be interpreted as a supervised factor model, where two factor modelings are simultaneously applied to response and predictor spaces. This article introduces a new model, called vector…

One of the most important studies in finance is to find out whether stock returns could be predicted. This research aims to create a new multivariate model, which includes dividend yield, earnings-to-price ratio, book-to-market ratio as…

This paper studies some temporal dependence properties and addresses the issue of parametric estimation for a class of state-dependent autoregressive models for nonlinear time series in which we assume a stochastic autoregressive…

Researchers have constantly asked whether stock returns can be predicted by some macroeconomic data. However, it is known that macroeconomic data may exhibit nonstationarity and/or heavy tails, which complicates existing testing procedures…

Monitoring downside risk and upside risk to the key macroeconomic indicators is critical for effective policymaking aimed at maintaining economic stability. In this paper I propose a parametric framework for modelling and forecasting…

Volatility prediction--an essential concept in financial markets--has recently been addressed using sentiment analysis methods. We investigate the sentiment of annual disclosures of companies in stock markets to forecast volatility. We…

We develop a novel multivariate semi-parametric framework for joint portfolio Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting. Unlike existing univariate semi-parametric approaches, the proposed framework explicitly models the…