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This article introduces a novel dynamic framework to Bayesian model averaging for time-varying parameter quantile regressions. By employing sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo, we combine empirical estimates derived from dynamically chosen…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-08 Mauro Bernardi , Roberto Casarin , Bertrand Maillet , Lea Petrella

The quantile varying coefficient (VC) model can flexibly capture dynamical patterns of regression coefficients. In addition, due to the quantile check loss function, it is robust against outliers and heavy-tailed distributions of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-11 Fei Zhou , Jie Ren , Shuangge Ma , Cen Wu

Advances in digital sensors, digital data storage and communications have resulted in systems being capable of accumulating large collections of data. In the light of dealing with the challenges that massive data present, this work proposes…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-09 Allan De Freitas , François Septier , Lyudmila Mihaylova

Bayesian hierarchical modeling is a popular approach to capturing unobserved heterogeneity across individual units. However, standard estimation methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be impracticable for modeling outcomes from…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-04 Michael Braun , Paul Damien

We present a flexible Bayesian semiparametric mixed model for longitudinal data analysis in the presence of potentially high-dimensional categorical covariates. Building on a novel hidden Markov tensor decomposition technique, our proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-05 Giorgio Paulon , Peter Müller , Abhra Sarkar

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

We develop a structural framework for modeling and inferring unobserved heterogeneity in dynamic panel-data models. Unlike methods treating clustering as a descriptive device, we model heterogeneity as arising from a latent clustering…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-29 Jean-Pierre Florens , Anna Simoni

A new class of models, named dynamic quantile linear models, is presented. It combines dynamic linear models with distribution free quantile regression producing a robust statistical method. Bayesian inference for dynamic quantile linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-20 Kelly C. M. Gonçalves , Helio S. Migon , Leonardo S. Bastos

This paper considers Bayesian parameter estimation of dynamic systems using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The Metroplis-Hastings (MH) algorithm is employed, and the main contribution of the paper is to examine and illustrate…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-18 Johannes Hendriks , Adrian Wills , Brett Ninness , Johan Dahlin

This paper develops a Mean Group Instrumental Variables (MGIV) estimator for spatial dynamic panel data models with interactive effects, under large N and T asymptotics. Unlike existing approaches that typically impose slope-parameter…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-31 Jia Chen , Guowei Cui , Vasilis Sarafidis , Takashi Yamagata

We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Pieter Vanmechelen , Geert Lombaert , Giovanni Samaey

Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-13 Daniel W. Heck , Antony M. Overstall , Quentin F. Gronau , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

This paper introduces methodology for performing Bayesian inference sequentially on a sequence of posteriors on spaces of different dimensions. We show how this may be achieved through the use of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers (Del…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-02 Richard G Everitt , Richard Culliford , Felipe Medina-Aguayo , Daniel J Wilson

Switching dynamical systems are an expressive model class for the analysis of time-series data. As in many fields within the natural and engineering sciences, the systems under study typically evolve continuously in time, it is natural to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-19 Lukas Köhs , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl

Decoding complex relationships among large numbers of variables with relatively few observations is one of the crucial issues in science. One approach to this problem is Gaussian graphical modeling, which describes conditional independence…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-26 A. Mohammadi , E. C. Wit

We develop a Bayesian non-parametric quantile panel regression model. Within each quantile, the response function is a convex combination of a linear model and a non-linear function, which we approximate using Bayesian Additive Regression…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-08 Todd E. Clark , Florian Huber , Gary Koop , Massimiliano Marcellino , Michael Pfarrhofer

Bayesian max-margin models have shown superiority in various practical applications, such as text categorization, collaborative prediction, social network link prediction and crowdsourcing, and they conjoin the flexibility of Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-19 Wenbo Hu , Jun Zhu , Bo Zhang

While existing mathematical descriptions can accurately account for phenomena at microscopic scales (e.g. molecular dynamics), these are often high-dimensional, stochastic and their applicability over macroscopic time scales of physical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-08 P. S. Koutsourelakis , Elias Bilionis

Identifying the active factors that have significant impacts on the output of the complex system is an important but challenging variable selection problem in computer experiments. In this paper, a Bayesian hierarchical Gaussian process…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-18 Xiao Yao , Ning Jianhui , Qin Hong

This paper develops a framework for quantile regression in binary longitudinal data settings. A novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is designed to fit the model and its computational efficiency is demonstrated in a simulation…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-09-16 Mohammad Arshad Rahman , Angela Vossmeyer
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