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We devise a Monte Carlo based method for detecting whether a non-negative Markov chain is stable for a given set of parameter values. More precisely, for a given subset of the parameter space, we develop an algorithm that is capable of…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-11 Michel Mandjes , Brendan Patch , Neil Walton

This paper generalizes several results on linear pooling from squared error loss to all kernel scores. The latter are a rich family of scoring rules that covers point and distribution forecasts for univariate and multivariate, discrete and…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-30 Fabian Krüger

We consider nonparametric inference of finite dimensional, potentially non-pathwise differentiable target parameters. In a nonparametric model, some examples of such parameters that are always non pathwise differentiable target parameters…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-14 Aurelien F. Bibaut , Mark J. van der Laan

Recently, the problem of boundary stabilization for unstable linear constant-coefficient coupled reaction-diffusion systems was solved by means of the backstepping method. The extension of this result to systems with advection terms and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-03-17 Rafael Vazquez , Miroslav Krstic

The Van Allen radiation belts in the magnetosphere have been extensively studied using models based on radial diffusion theory, which is based on a quasi-linear approach with prescribed inner and outer boundary conditions. The 1-d diffusion…

The information diffusion prediction on social networks aims to predict future recipients of a message, with practical applications in marketing and social media. While different prediction models all claim to perform well, general…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-01-16 Wenjin Xie , Xiaomeng Wang , Radosław Michalski , Tao Jia

In this paper we study model reduction of linear and bilinear quadratic stochastic control problems with parameter uncertainties. Specifically, we consider slow-fast systems with unknown diffusion coefficient and study the convergence of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-02-10 Hafida Bouanani , Carsten Hartmann , Omar Kebiri

We show that the derivative of the (measure) transfer operator with respect to the parameter of the map is a divergence. Then, for physical measures of discrete-time hyperbolic chaotic systems, we derive an equivariant divergence formula…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-08-09 Angxiu Ni , Yao Tong

This study aims to improve the spatial representation of uncertainties when regressing surface wind speeds from large-scale atmospheric predictors for sub-seasonal forecasting. Sub-seasonal forecasting often relies on large-scale…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Ganglin Tian , Anastase Alexandre Charantonis , Camille Le Coz , Alexis Tantet , Riwal Plougonven

Diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative tools with applications in computer vision and scientific machine learning (SciML), where they have been used to solve large-scale probabilistic inverse problems. Traditionally, these…

Kernel density estimation is a widely used nonparametric approach to estimate an unknown distribution. Recent work in Bayesian predictive inference has considered stochastic processes formed by specifying the predictive distribution for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-15 Torey Hilbert

Gaussian process regression has proven very powerful in statistics, machine learning and inverse problems. A crucial aspect of the success of this methodology, in a wide range of applications to complex and real-world problems, is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-18 Yifan Chen , Houman Owhadi , Andrew M. Stuart

This paper provides a general framework for Stein's density method for multivariate continuous distributions. The approach associates to any probability density function a canonical operator and Stein class, as well as an infinite…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-27 Guillaume Mijoule , Martin Raič , Gesine Reinert , Yvik Swan

Learning with kernels is an important concept in machine learning. Standard approaches for kernel methods often use predefined kernels that require careful selection of hyperparameters. To mitigate this burden, we propose in this paper a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-26 Yufan Zhou , Changyou Chen , Jinhui Xu

Topological data analysis offers a rich source of valuable information to study vision problems. Yet, so far we lack a theoretically sound connection to popular kernel-based learning techniques, such as kernel SVMs or kernel PCA. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-12-24 Jan Reininghaus , Stefan Huber , Ulrich Bauer , Roland Kwitt

We consider a process given as the solution of a one-dimensional stochastic differential equation with irregular, path dependent and time-inhomogeneous drift coefficient and additive noise. H\"older continuity of the Lebesgue density of…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-28 David Baños , Paul Krühner

Previously, we showed that computational mechanic's causal states -- predictively-equivalent trajectory classes for a stochastic dynamical system -- can be cast into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The result is a widely-applicable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-03 Alexandra M. Jurgens , Nicolas Brodu

Computational procedures for the stationary probability distribution, the group inverse of the Markovian kernel and the mean first passage times of an irreducible Markov chain, are developed using perturbations. The derivation of these…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-12 Jeffrey J. Hunter

Data analyses based on linear methods constitute the simplest, most robust, and transparent approaches to the automatic processing of large amounts of data for building supervised or unsupervised machine learning models. Principal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-22 Benjamin A. Helfrecht , Rose K. Cersonsky , Guillaume Fraux , Michele Ceriotti

This paper considers extensions of minimum-disparity estimators to the problem of estimating parameters in a regression model that is conditionally specified; that is where a parametric model describes the distribution of a response $y$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-10 Giles Hooker
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