Related papers: Chronologically Consistent Large Language Models
We introduce a family of chronologically consistent, instruction-tuned large language models to eliminate lookahead bias. Each model is trained only on data available before a clearly defined knowledge-cutoff date, ensuring strict temporal…
In financial backtesting, large language models pretrained on internet-scale data risk introducing lookahead bias that undermines their forecasting validity, as they may have already seen the true outcome during training. To address this,…
Large language models (LLMs) excel at operating at scale by leveraging social media and various data crawled from the web. Whereas existing corpora are diverse, their frequent lack of long-term temporal structure may however limit an LLM's…
We develop a statistical test to detect lookahead bias in economic forecasts generated by large language models (LLMs). Using state-of-the-art pre-training data detection techniques, we estimate the likelihood that a given prompt appeared…
Large Language models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT, have gained popularity in recent years with the advancement of Natural Language Processing (NLP), with use cases spanning many disciplines and daily lives as well. LLMs inherit explicit and…
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in finance and economics, where prompt-based attempts against look-ahead bias implicitly assume that models understand chronology. We test this fundamental question with a series of…
This paper introduces BreakGPT, a novel large language model (LLM) architecture adapted specifically for time series forecasting and the prediction of sharp upward movements in asset prices. By leveraging both the capabilities of LLMs and…
Large language models (LLMs) are a type of machine learning tool that economists have started to apply in their empirical research. One such application is macroeconomic forecasting with backtesting of LLMs, even though they are trained on…
Large language models (LLMs) have recently gained significant attention due to their unparalleled ability to perform various natural language processing tasks. These models, benefiting from their advanced natural language understanding…
In 2022, with the release of ChatGPT, large-scale language models gained widespread attention. ChatGPT not only surpassed previous models in terms of parameters and the scale of its pretraining corpus but also achieved revolutionary…
Language Models are being widely used in Education. Even though modern deep learning models achieve very good performance on question-answering tasks, sometimes they make errors. To avoid misleading students by showing wrong answers, it is…
We present NoLBERT, a lightweight, timestamped foundational language model for empirical research -- particularly for forecasting in economics, finance, and the social sciences. By pretraining exclusively on text from 1976 to 1995, NoLBERT…
Much of software-engineering research relies on the naturalness of code, the fact that code, in small code snippets, is repetitive and can be predicted using statistical language models like n-gram. Although powerful, training such models…
Large language models (LLMs) are often trained on extensive, temporally indiscriminate text corpora, reflecting the lack of datasets with temporal metadata. This approach is not aligned with the evolving nature of language. Conventional…
The performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) degrades from the temporal drift between data used for model training and newer text seen during inference. One understudied avenue of language change causing data drift is the emergence of…
Large language models have exhibited exceptional performance on various Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks, leveraging techniques such as the pre-training, and instruction fine-tuning. Despite these advances, their effectiveness in…
Language evolves over time in many ways relevant to natural language processing tasks. For example, recent occurrences of tokens 'BERT' and 'ELMO' in publications refer to neural network architectures rather than persons. This type of…
Large Language Models (LLMs) inherit explicit and implicit biases from their training datasets. Identifying and mitigating biases in LLMs is crucial to ensure fair outputs, as they can perpetuate harmful stereotypes and misinformation. This…
In psycholinguistic modeling, surprisal from larger pre-trained language models has been shown to be a poorer predictor of naturalistic human reading times. However, it has been speculated that this may be due to data leakage that caused…
We introduce Look-Ahead-Bench, a standardized benchmark measuring look-ahead bias in Point-in-Time (PiT) Large Language Models (LLMs) within realistic and practical financial workflows. Unlike most existing approaches that primarily test…