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In recent years, surrogate models have been successfully used in likelihood-free inference to decrease the number of simulator evaluations. The current state-of-the-art performance for this task has been achieved by Bayesian Optimization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-06 Alexander Aushev , Henri Pesonen , Markus Heinonen , Jukka Corander , Samuel Kaski

The Tweedie Compound Poisson-Gamma model is routinely used for modeling non-negative continuous data with a discrete probability mass at zero. Mixed models with random effects account for the covariance structure related to the grouping…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-05 Yaodong Yang , Rui Luo , Yuanyuan Liu

Gaussian Process (GPs) models are a rich distribution over functions with inductive biases controlled by a kernel function. Learning occurs through the optimisation of kernel hyperparameters using the marginal likelihood as the objective.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-22 Fergus Simpson , Vidhi Lalchand , Carl Edward Rasmussen

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are widely recognized as powerful non-parametric models for regression and classification. Traditional GP frameworks predominantly operate under the assumption that the inputs are either accurately known or subject…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-14 Muzaffar Qureshi , Tochukwu Elijah Ogri , Zachary I. Bell , Wanjiku A. Makumi , Rushikesh Kamalapurkar

Tweedie's formula is central to measurement-error analysis and empirical Bayes. Under Gaussian noise, the formula identifies the posterior mean directly from the observed-data density, bypassing nonparametric deconvolution. Beyond a few…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-05 Santiago Torres

Gaussian processes (GPs) are Bayesian nonparametric models for function approximation with principled predictive uncertainty estimates. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multilayer generalizations of GPs that can represent complex marginal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-20 Qiuxian Meng , Yongyou Zhang

The detection of periodic signals in irregularly-sampled time series is a problem commonly encountered in astronomy. Traditional tools used for periodic searches, such as the periodogram, have poorly defined statistical properties under…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-01-13 A. Gúrpide , M. Middleton

The combination of inducing point methods with stochastic variational inference has enabled approximate Gaussian Process (GP) inference on large datasets. Unfortunately, the resulting predictive distributions often exhibit substantially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-29 Martin Jankowiak , Geoff Pleiss , Jacob R. Gardner

We present the Gaussian process density sampler (GPDS), an exchangeable generative model for use in nonparametric Bayesian density estimation. Samples drawn from the GPDS are consistent with exact, independent samples from a distribution…

Computation · Statistics 2009-12-25 Ryan Prescott Adams , Iain Murray , David J. C. MacKay

Dynamic behavior of traffic adversely affect the performance of the prediction models in intelligent transportation applications. This study applies Gaussian processes (GPs) to traffic speed prediction. Such predictions can be used by…

Applications · Statistics 2020-11-25 Gurcan Comert

A variational inference-based framework for training a multi-output Gaussian process latent variable model, specifically tailored to the tails-up spatio-temporal stream network, is developed. Training, given a censored observational data…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Marno Basson , Tobias M. Louw , Theresa R. Smith

Inverse problems are prevalent in both scientific research and engineering applications. In the context of Bayesian inverse problems, sampling from the posterior distribution can be particularly challenging when the forward models are…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-17 Zhihang Xu , Xiaoyu Zhu , Daoji Li , Qifeng Liao

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are Bayesian models that provide uncertainty estimates associated to the predictions made. They are also very flexible due to their non-parametric nature. Nevertheless, GPs suffer from poor scalability as the number…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-16 Bahram Jafrasteh , Carlos Villacampa-Calvo , Daniel Hernández-Lobato

Gaussian process (GP) regression has been widely used in supervised machine learning due to its flexibility and inherent ability to describe uncertainty in function estimation. In the context of control, it is seeing increasing use for…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2020-01-01 Lukas Hewing , Juraj Kabzan , Melanie N. Zeilinger

Missing values are common in many real-life datasets. However, most of the current machine learning methods can not handle missing values. This means that they should be imputed beforehand. Gaussian Processes (GPs) are non-parametric models…

Maximizing high-dimensional, non-convex functions through noisy observations is a notoriously hard problem, but one that arises in many applications. In this paper, we tackle this challenge by modeling the unknown function as a sample from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-03 Bo Chen , Rui Castro , Andreas Krause

We present a novel extension of multi-output Gaussian processes for handling heterogeneous outputs. We assume that each output has its own likelihood function and use a vector-valued Gaussian process prior to jointly model the parameters in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-04 Pablo Moreno-Muñoz , Antonio Artés-Rodríguez , Mauricio A. Álvarez

We introduce a Bayesian Gaussian process latent variable model that explicitly captures spatial correlations in data using a parameterized spatial kernel and leveraging structure-exploiting algebra on the model covariance matrices for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-23 Steven Atkinson , Nicholas Zabaras

The Bayesian transformed Gaussian process (BTG) model, proposed by Kedem and Oliviera, is a fully Bayesian counterpart to the warped Gaussian process (WGP) and marginalizes out a joint prior over input warping and kernel hyperparameters.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-21 Xinran Zhu , Leo Huang , Cameron Ibrahim , Eric Hans Lee , David Bindel

Gaussian Processes (\textbf{GPs}) are flexible non-parametric models with strong probabilistic interpretation. While being a standard choice for performing inference on time series, GPs have few techniques to work in a streaming setting.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-22 Théo Galy-Fajou , Manfred Opper