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Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs) are a popular tool for analyzing multi-country datasets. However, the number of estimated parameters can be enormous, leading to computational and statistical issues. In this paper, we develop fast…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-10 Martin Feldkircher , Florian Huber , Gary Koop , Michael Pfarrhofer

We give the first polynomial-time, polynomial-sample, differentially private estimator for the mean and covariance of an arbitrary Gaussian distribution $\mathcal{N}(\mu,\Sigma)$ in $\mathbb{R}^d$. All previous estimators are either…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-15 Gautam Kamath , Argyris Mouzakis , Vikrant Singhal , Thomas Steinke , Jonathan Ullman

We investigate differentially private estimators for individual parameters within larger parametric models. While generic private estimators exist, the estimators we provide repose on new local notions of estimand stability, and these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-24 Hilal Asi , John C. Duchi , Kunal Talwar

The goal of this paper is to show that a single robust estimator of the mean of a multivariate Gaussian distribution can enjoy five desirable properties. First, it is computationally tractable in the sense that it can be computed in a time…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-28 Arnak S. Dalalyan , Arshak Minasyan

Bayesian optimization has emerged as a highly effective tool for the safe online optimization of systems, due to its high sample efficiency and noise robustness. To further enhance its efficiency, reduced physical models of the system can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Jannis O. Lübsen , Christian Hespe , Annika Eichler

Gaussian processes (GPs) are non-linear probabilistic models popular in many applications. However, na\"ive GP realizations require quadratic memory to store the covariance matrix and cubic computation to perform inference or evaluate the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-03 Amanda Muyskens , Benjamin Priest , Imène Goumiri , Michael Schneider

Gaussian processes (GPs) are Bayesian non-parametric models useful in a myriad of applications. Despite their popularity, the cost of GP predictions (quadratic storage and cubic complexity with respect to the number of training points)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-24 Alec M. Dunton , Benjamin W. Priest , Amanda Muyskens

Machine learning algorithms frequently require careful tuning of model hyperparameters, regularization terms, and optimization parameters. Unfortunately, this tuning is often a "black art" that requires expert experience, unwritten rules of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-08-30 Jasper Snoek , Hugo Larochelle , Ryan P. Adams

Using Bayesian experimental design techniques, we have shown that for a single two-level quantum mechanical system under strong (projective) measurement, the dynamical parameters of a model Hamiltonian can be estimated with exponentially…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2012-06-05 Christopher Ferrie , Christopher E. Granade , D. G. Cory

Bayesian optimization is a powerful tool for fine-tuning the hyper-parameters of a wide variety of machine learning models. The success of machine learning has led practitioners in diverse real-world settings to learn classifiers for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-02-24 Matt J. Kusner , Jacob R. Gardner , Roman Garnett , Kilian Q. Weinberger

We present a new quantum algorithm for estimating the mean of a real-valued random variable obtained as the output of a quantum computation. Our estimator achieves a nearly-optimal quadratic speedup over the number of classical i.i.d.…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-11-16 Yassine Hamoudi

Solutions to inverse problems that are ill-conditioned or ill-posed may have significant intrinsic uncertainty. Unfortunately, analysing and quantifying this uncertainty is very challenging, particularly in high-dimensional problems. As a…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-12 Marcelo Pereyra

We propose a novel Bayesian inference framework for distributed differentially private linear regression. We consider a distributed setting where multiple parties hold parts of the data and share certain summary statistics of their portions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-08 Barış Alparslan , Sinan Yıldırım , Ş. İlker Birbil

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a generic modelling tool for supervised learning. While they have been successfully applied on large datasets, their use in safety-critical applications is hindered by the lack of good performance guarantees. To…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-27 David Reeb , Andreas Doerr , Sebastian Gerwinn , Barbara Rakitsch

We survey some of the recent advances in mean estimation and regression function estimation. In particular, we describe sub-Gaussian mean estimators for possibly heavy-tailed data both in the univariate and multivariate settings. We focus…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-12 Gabor Lugosi , Shahar Mendelson

We tackle the problem of estimating a location parameter with differential privacy guarantees and sub-Gaussian deviations. Recent work in statistics has focused on the study of estimators that achieve sub-Gaussian type deviations even for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-01 Marco Avella-Medina , Victor-Emmanuel Brunel

Posterior distributions on parameters computed from experimental data using Bayesian techniques are only as accurate as the models used to construct them. In many applications these models are incomplete, which both reduces the prospects of…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2015-06-23 Christopher J. Moore , Jonathan R. Gair

Variational inference techniques based on inducing variables provide an elegant framework for scalable posterior estimation in Gaussian process (GP) models. Besides enabling scalability, one of their main advantages over sparse…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-24 Simone Rossi , Markus Heinonen , Edwin V. Bonilla , Zheyang Shen , Maurizio Filippone

Given data in $\mathbb{R}^{p}$, a Tukey $\kappa$-trimmed region is the set of all points that have at least Tukey depth $\kappa$ w.r.t. the data. As they are visual, affine equivariant and robust, Tukey regions are useful tools in…

Computation · Statistics 2018-11-09 Xiaohui Liu , Karl Mosler , Pavlo Mozharovskyi

Estimating the mean of a random vector from i.i.d. data has received considerable attention, and the optimal accuracy one may achieve with a given confidence is fairly well understood by now. When the data take values in more general metric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-18 Daniel Bartl , Gabor Lugosi , Roberto Imbuzeiro Oliveira , Zoraida F. Rico