Related papers: Semiparametric estimation for multivariate Hawkes …
This is the second part of our work on Multivariate Quadratic Hawkes (MQHawkes) Processes, devoted to the calibration of the model defined and studied analytically in Aubrun, C., Benzaquen, M., & Bouchaud, J. P., Quantitative Finance,…
It is known that the impact of transactions on stock price (market impact) is a concave function of the size of the order, but there exists little quantitative theory that suggests why this is so. I develop a quantitative theory for the…
Due to its low computational cost, Lasso is an attractive regularization method for high-dimensional statistical settings. In this paper, we consider multivariate counting processes depending on an unknown function parameter to be estimated…
The Hierarchical Dirichlet process is a discrete random measure serving as an important prior in Bayesian non-parametrics. It is motivated with the study of groups of clustered data. Each group is modelled through a level two Dirichlet…
In classical Hawkes process, the baseline intensity and triggering kernel are assumed to be a constant and parametric function respectively, which limits the model flexibility. To generalize it, we present a fully Bayesian nonparametric…
The Hawkes process is a simple point process that has long memory, clustering effect, self-exciting property and is in general non-Markovian. The future evolution of a self-exciting point process is influenced by the timing of the past…
During the semiconductor manufacturing process, predicting the yield of the semiconductor is an important problem. Early detection of defective product production in the manufacturing process can save huge production cost. The data…
Human behavior drives a range of complex social, urban, and economic systems, yet understanding its structure and dynamics at the individual level remains an open question. From credit card transactions to communications data, human…
Inference for Dirichlet process hierarchical models is typically performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, which can be roughly categorised into marginal and conditional methods. The former integrate out analytically the…
We generalise the construction of multivariate Hawkes processes to a possibly infinite network of counting processes on a directed graph $\mathbb G$. The process is constructed as the solution to a system of Poisson driven stochastic…
In this paper, we consider the composition of two independent processes : one process corresponds to position and the other one to time. Such processes will be called iterated processes. We first propose an algorithm based on the Euler…
In this paper, we assume that the permanent market impact of metaorders is linear and that the price is a martingale. Those two hypotheses enable us to derive the evolution of the price from the dynamics of the flow of market orders. For…
Hawkes processes are a self-exciting stochastic process used to describe phenomena whereby past events increase the probability of the occurrence of future events. This work presents a flexible approach for modelling a variant of these,…
We present a reproducible research framework for market microstructure combining a deterministic C++ limit order book (LOB) simulator with stochastic order flow generated by multivariate marked Hawkes processes. The paper derives full…
Statistical analysis of high-frequency stock market order transaction data is conducted to understand order transition dynamics. We employ a first-order time-homogeneous discrete-time Markov chain model to the sequence of orders of stocks…
This paper provides a semiparametric model of estimating states of the volatility defined as the squared diffusion coefficient of a stochastic differential equation. Without assuming any functional form of the volatility function, we…
We introduce the Hyperedge-triggered Hawkes (HTH) process for inferring higher-order interaction structure in multi-cellular systems from asynchronous event-time data. Beyond standard pairwise excitation, the HTH intensity includes a term…
Hawkes processes were first introduced to obtain microscopic models for the rough volatility observed in asset prices. Scaling limits of such processes leads to the rough-Heston model that describes the macroscopic behavior. Blanc et al.…
This paper proposes an Extended State-Dependent Hawkes Process (ExsdHawkes) to model the intricate dynamics of Limit Order Books (LOBs). Our theoretical contribution lies in relaxing traditional constraints by allowing for state…
In this paper we propose a new methodology for solving a discrete time stochastic Markovian control problem under model uncertainty. By utilizing the Dirichlet process, we model the unknown distribution of the underlying stochastic process…