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Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Nikolaos Bousias , Lars Lindemann , George Pappas

This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Yanfei Zhou , Matteo Sesia

Conformal prediction is a model-agnostic approach to generating prediction sets that cover the true class with a high probability. Although its prediction set size is expected to capture aleatoric uncertainty, there is a lack of evidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Misgina Tsighe Hagos , Claes Lundström

Conformal prediction provides rigorous distribution-free finite-sample guarantees for marginal coverage under the assumption of exchangeability, but may exhibit systematic undercoverage or overcoverage for specific subpopulations. Assessing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Zheng Zhou , Xiangfei Zhang , Chongguang Tao , Yuhong Yang

We develop conformal prediction methods for constructing valid predictive confidence sets in multiclass and multilabel problems without assumptions on the data generating distribution. A challenge here is that typical conformal prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-14 Maxime Cauchois , Suyash Gupta , John Duchi

Conformal predictions make it possible to define reliable and robust learning algorithms. But they are essentially a method for evaluating whether an algorithm is good enough to be used in practice. To define a reliable learning framework…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-18 Alberto Carlevaro , Teodoro Alamo Cantarero , Fabrizio Dabbene , Maurizio Mongelli

Uncertainty quantification in Knowledge Graph Embedding (KGE) methods is crucial for ensuring the reliability of downstream applications. A recent work applies conformal prediction to KGE methods, providing uncertainty estimates by…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Yuqicheng Zhu , Daniel Hernández , Yuan He , Zifeng Ding , Bo Xiong , Evgeny Kharlamov , Steffen Staab

Conformal prediction (CP) converts any model's output to prediction sets with a guarantee to cover the true label with (adjustable) high probability. Robust CP extends this guarantee to worst-case (adversarial) inputs. Existing baselines…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Conformal Prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful statistical framework for high-stakes classification applications. Instead of predicting a single class, CP generates a prediction set, guaranteed to include the true label with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Ariel Fargion , Lahav Dabah , Tom Tirer

Conformal prediction (CP) is an emerging uncertainty quantification framework that allows us to construct a prediction set to cover the true label with a pre-specified marginal or conditional probability. Although the valid coverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-09 Yuanjie Shi , Subhankar Ghosh , Taha Belkhouja , Janardhan Rao Doppa , Yan Yan

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification that replaces point predictions with sets, offering marginal coverage guarantees (i.e., ensuring that the prediction sets contain the true label with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Margarida M. Campos , João Calém , Sophia Sklaviadis , Mário A. T. Figueiredo , André F. T. Martins

Conformal prediction has emerged as an effective strategy for uncertainty quantification by modifying a model to output sets of labels instead of a single label. These prediction sets come with the guarantee that they contain the true label…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Haosen Ge , Hamsa Bastani , Osbert Bastani

Conformal inference provides a rigorous statistical framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, enabling well-calibrated prediction sets with precise coverage guarantees for any classification model. However, its reliance…

Conformal Prediction (CP) provides distribution-free uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets that guarantee coverage of the true labels. This reliability makes CP valuable for high-stakes federated learning scenarios such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Rui Xu , Xingyuan Chen , Wenxing Huang , Minxuan Huang , Yun Xie , Weiyan Chen , Sihong Xie

Conformal prediction is a popular uncertainty quantification method that augments a base predictor to return sets of predictions with statistically valid coverage guarantees. However, current methods are often computationally expensive and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Laura Lützow , Michael Eichelbeck , Mykel J. Kochenderfer , Matthias Althoff

Conformal prediction methodology has recently been extended to the covariate shift setting, where the distribution of covariates differs between training and test data. While existing results ensure that the prediction sets from these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-09 Mehrdad Pournaderi , Yu Xiang

In this paper, we present a novel approach for conformal prediction (CP), in which we aim to identify a set of promising prediction candidates -- in place of a single prediction. This set is guaranteed to contain a correct answer with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-03 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Zhendong Wang , Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , Mingyuan Zhou , David M. Blei

Conformal prediction constructs a set of labels instead of a single point prediction, while providing a probabilistic coverage guarantee. Beyond the coverage guarantee, adaptiveness to example difficulty is an important property. It means…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Sooyong Jang , Insup Lee

Modern black-box predictive models are often accompanied by weak performance guarantees that only hold asymptotically in the size of the dataset or require strong parametric assumptions. In response to this, split conformal prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-27 Roel Hulsman
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