Related papers: Functional BART with Shape Priors: A Bayesian Tree…

Frequentist and Bayesian methods differ in many aspects, but share some basic optimal properties. In real-life classification and regression problems, situations exist in which a model based on one of the methods is preferable based on some…

BCART (Bayesian Classification and Regression Trees) and BART (Bayesian Additive Regression Trees) are popular Bayesian regression models widely applicable in modern regression problems. Their popularity is intimately tied to the ability to…

Nonparametric regression models such as Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) can be useful in fitting flexible functions of a set of covariates to a response, while accounting for nonlinearities and interactions. However, they are…

There is a dearth of robust methods to estimate the causal effects of multiple treatments when the outcome is binary. This paper uses two unique sets of simulations to propose and evaluate the use of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees…

The linear varying coefficient models posits a linear relationship between an outcome and covariates in which the covariate effects are modeled as functions of additional effect modifiers. Despite a long history of study and use in…

Some applied researchers hesitate to use nonparametric methods, worrying that they will lose power in small samples or overfit the data when simpler models are sufficient. We argue that at least some of these concerns are unfounded when…

Since their inception in the 1980's, regression trees have been one of the more widely used non-parametric prediction methods. Tree-structured methods yield a histogram reconstruction of the regression surface, where the bins correspond to…

This paper introduces BART-RDD, a sum-of-trees regression model built around a novel regression tree prior, which incorporates the special covariate structure of regression discontinuity designs. Specifically, the tree splitting process is…

Flow network models can capture the underlying physics and operational constraints of many networked systems including the power grid and transportation and water networks. However, analyzing reliability of systems using computationally…

We propose a tree-based algorithm for classification and regression problems in the context of functional data analysis, which allows to leverage representation learning and multiple splitting rules at the node level, reducing…

In light of widespread evidence of parameter instability in macroeconomic models, many time-varying parameter (TVP) models have been proposed. This paper proposes a nonparametric TVP-VAR model using Bayesian additive regression trees (BART)…

Individualized treatment rules (ITR) can improve health outcomes by recognizing that patients may respond differently to treatment and assigning therapy with the most desirable predicted outcome for each individual. Flexible and efficient…

Methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effect in observational data have largely focused on continuous or binary outcomes, and have been relatively less vetted with survival outcomes. Using flexible machine learning methods in the…

Contextual bandits are a core technology for personalized mobile health interventions, where decision-making requires adapting to complex, non-linear user behaviors. While Thompson Sampling (TS) is a preferred strategy for these problems,…

We suggest a new method, called Functional Additive Regression, or FAR, for efficiently performing high-dimensional functional regression. FAR extends the usual linear regression model involving a functional predictor, $X(t)$, and a scalar…

We present a novel approach for constrained Bayesian inference. Unlike current methods, our approach does not require convexity of the constraint set. We reduce the constrained variational inference to a parametric optimization over the…

Bayesian regression trees are flexible non-parametric models that are well suited to many modern statistical regression problems. Many such tree models have been proposed, from the simple single- tree model to more complex tree ensembles.…

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a popular Bayesian non-parametric regression algorithm. The posterior is a distribution over sums of decision trees, and predictions are made by averaging approximate samples from the posterior.…

Variable selection remains a fundamental challenge in statistics, especially in nonparametric settings where model complexity can obscure interpretability. Bayesian tree ensembles, particularly the popular Bayesian additive regression trees…

Bayesian Causal Forests (BCF) is a causal inference machine learning model based on a highly flexible non-parametric regression and classification tool called Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). Motivated by data from the Trends in…