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Background: Continuous traits evolution of a group of taxa that are correlated through a phylogenetic tree is commonly modelled using parametric stochastic differential equations to represent deterministic change of trait through time,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-03 Bayu Brahmantio , Krzysztof Bartoszek , Etka Yapar

Multivariate distributions that allow for asymmetry and heavy tails are important building blocks in many econometric and statistical models. The Unified Skew-t (UST) is a promising choice because it is both scalable and allows for a high…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-19 Lin Deng , Michael Stanley Smith , Worapree Maneesoonthorn

Functional mixed models are widely useful for regression analysis with dependent functional data, including longitudinal functional data with scalar predictors. However, existing algorithms for Bayesian inference with these models only…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-14 Thomas Y. Sun , Daniel R. Kowal

The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-02-05 K. Triantafyllopoulos

Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) are well-established tools for probabilistic exploration of dependence structures using precision matrices. We develop a Bayesian method to incorporate covariate information in this GGMs setup in a nonlinear…

This paper addresses the problem of quantification and propagation of uncertainties associated with dependence modeling when data for characterizing probability models are limited. Practically, the system inputs are often assumed to be…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-14 Jiaxin Zhang , Michael D. Shields

In this article, a copula-based method for mixed regression models is proposed, where the conditional distribution of the response variable, given covariates, is modelled by a parametric family of continuous or discrete distributions, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-13 Pavel Krupskii , Bouchra R Nasri , Bruno N Remillard

This work introduces a novel approach for generating conditional probabilistic rainfall forecasts with temporal and spatial dependence. A two-step procedure is employed. Firstly, marginal location-specific distributions are jointly…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-31 David Huk , Rilwan A. Adewoyin , Ritabrata Dutta

Bayesian nonparametric methods are a popular choice for analysing survival data due to their ability to flexibly model the distribution of survival times. These methods typically employ a nonparametric prior on the survival function that is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-22 Edwin Fong , Brieuc Lehmann

We propose a highly flexible distributional copula regression model for bivariate time-to-event data in the presence of right-censoring. The joint survival function of the response is constructed using parametric copulas, allowing for a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-23 Guillermo Briseno-Sanchez , Nadja Klein , Andreas Groll , Andreas Mayr

Copula models have become one of the most widely used tools in the applied modelling of multivariate data. Similarly, Bayesian methods are increasingly used to obtain efficient likelihood-based inference. However, to date, there has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-13 Michael Stanley Smith

Probability density estimation is a central task in statistics. Copula-based models provide a great deal of flexibility in modelling multivariate distributions, allowing for the specifications of models for the marginal distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-08 Nicolás Kuschinski , Richard Warr , Alejandro Jara

The Gaussian copula is a powerful tool that has been widely used to model spatial and/or temporal correlated data with arbitrary marginal distributions. However, this kind of model can potentially be too restrictive since it expresses a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-30 Moreno Bevilacqua , Eloy Alvarado , Christian Caamaño-Carrillo

We investigate the optimal structure of dynamic regression models used in multivariate time series prediction and propose a scheme to form the lagged variable structure called Backward-in-Time Selection (BTS) that takes into account…

Applications · Statistics 2013-01-14 Ioannis Vlachos , Dimitris Kugiumtzis

We propose a flexible Bayesian approach for estimating the joint density of a multivariate outcome of interest in the presence of categorical covariates. Leveraging a Gaussian copula framework, our method effectively captures the dependence…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-10 Giovanni Toto , Peter Müller , Abhra Sarkar

Multivariate Gaussian distributions enjoy Gaussian conditional distributions that makes conditioning easy: conditioning boils down to implementing analytical formulae for conditional means and covariances. For more general distributions,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-26 Antoine Faul , David Ginsbourger , Ben Spycher

The declining response rates in probability surveys along with the widespread availability of unstructured data has led to growing research into non-probability samples. Existing robust approaches are not well-developed for non-Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-29 Ali Rafei , Michael R. Elliott , Carol A. C. Flannagan

Copula-based methods provide a flexible approach to build missing data imputation models of multivariate data of mixed types. However, the choice of copula function is an open question. We consider a Bayesian nonparametric approach by using…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-15 Jiali Wang , Anton Westveld , Bronwyn Loong , Alan Welsh

This paper presents the first application of Gaussian Mixture Copula Models to the statistical modeling of driving scenarios for the safety validation of automated driving systems. Knowledge of the joint probability distribution of scenario…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Christian Reichenbächer , Philipp Rank , Jochen Hipp , Oliver Bringmann

The increasing importance of solar power for electricity generation leads to an increasing demand for probabilistic forecasting of local and aggregated PV yields. In this paper we use an indirect modeling approach for hourly medium to long…

Applications · Statistics 2020-02-24 Alfred Müller , Matthias Reuber