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An optimal experimental set-up maximizes the value of data for statistical inferences and predictions. The efficiency of strategies for finding optimal experimental set-ups is particularly important for experiments that are time-consuming…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Joakim Beck , Ben Mansour Dia , Luis F. R. Espath , Raul Tempone

The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), as a fundamental data assimilation approach, has been widely used in many fields of the sciences and engineering. When the state variable is of high dimensional accompanied with high resolution…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-18 Shouxia Wang , Hao-Xuan Sun , Song Xi Chen

We leverage multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) to improve the performance of multi-step look-ahead Bayesian optimization (BO) methods that involve nested expectations and maximizations. Often these expectations must be computed by Monte Carlo…

In this article we consider static Bayesian parameter estimation for partially observed diffusions that are discretely observed. We work under the assumption that one must resort to discretizing the underlying diffusion process, for…

Computation · Statistics 2017-01-23 Ajay Jasra , Kengo Kamatani , Kody J. H. Law , Yan Zhou

We address the problem of observation noise misspecification in Bayesian filtering of dynamical systems via recent advances in generalised Bayesian inference. Mis-match in tail decay between the true data generating process and an assumed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Hans Reimann , Sebastian Reich

This research paper delves into the Linear Kalman Filter (LKF), highlighting its importance in merging data from multiple sensors. The Kalman Filter is known for its recursive solution to the linear filtering problem in discrete data,…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-07-19 Parsa Veysi , Mohsen Adeli , Nayerosadat Peirov Naziri , Ehsan Adeli

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a Monte Carlo based implementation of the Kalman filter (KF) for extremely high-dimensional, possibly nonlinear and non-Gaussian state estimation problems. Its ability to handle state dimensions in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-12 Michael Roth , Gustaf Hendeby , Carsten Fritsche , Fredrik Gustafsson

We propose a dynamical low rank approximation of the Kalman-Bucy process (DLR-KBP), which evolves the filtering distribution of a partially continuously observed linear SDE on a small time-varying subspace at reduced computational cost.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-09-16 Fabio Nobile , Thomas Trigo Trindade

We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Pieter Vanmechelen , Geert Lombaert , Giovanni Samaey

We consider state and parameter estimation for a dynamical system having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. It has been shown that the robustness of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating time-invariant…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Philippe Bisaillon , Brandon Robinson , Mohammad Khalil , Chris L. Pettit , Dominique Poirel , Abhijit Sarkar

Data assimilation is a Bayesian inference process that obtains an enhanced understanding of a physical system of interest by fusing information from an inexact physics-based model, and from noisy sparse observations of reality. The…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-03-12 Andrey A Popov , Adrian Sandu

Contemporary data assimilation often involves more than a million prediction variables. Ensemble Kalman filters (EnKF) have been developed by geoscientists. They are successful indispensable tools in science and engineering, because they…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-26 Andrew J. Majda , Xin T. Tong

The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has proven to be an effective variance-reduction statistical method for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models, combining model computations at different levels…

Mathematical Software · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Santiago Badia , Jerrad Hampton , Javier Principe

We provide a continuous time limit analysis for the class of Ensemble Square Root Filter algorithms with deterministic model perturbations. In the particular linear case, we specify general conditions on the model perturbations implying…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-21 Theresa Lange , Wilhelm Stannat

Despite the success of ensemble classification methods in multi-class classification problems, ensemble methods based on approaches other than bagging have not been widely explored for multi-label classification problems. The Kalman…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Arjun Pakrashi , Brian Mac Namee

Aiming to enhance the consistency and thus long-term accuracy of Extended Kalman Filters for terrestrial vehicle localization, this paper introduces the Manifold Error State Extended Kalman Filter (M-ESEKF). By representing the robot's pose…

In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-26 Kei Ishikawa , Takashi Goda

We investigate the applicability of the data assimilation (DA) to large eddy simulations (LESs) based on the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). We carry out the observing system simulation experiment of a two-dimensional (2D) forced isotropic…

In this paper, we present a generalisation of the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method to a setting where the level parameter is a continuous variable. This Continuous Level Monte Carlo (CLMC) estimator provides a natural framework in PDE…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-22 Gianluca Detommaso , Tim Dodwell , Rob Scheichl

Multilevel estimators aim at reducing the variance of Monte Carlo statistical estimators, by combining samples generated with simulators of different costs and accuracies. In particular, the recent work of Schaden and Ullmann (2020) on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-13 Mayeul Destouches , Paul Mycek , Selime Gürol