Related papers: Forecasting Rare Language Model Behaviors

In this work, we argue that large language models (LLMs), though trained to predict only the next token, exhibit emergent planning behaviors: $\textbf{their hidden representations encode future outputs beyond the next token}$. Through…

Deep learning models are effective, yet brittle. Even carefully trained, their behavior tends to be hard to predict when confronted with out-of-distribution samples. In this work, our goal is to propose a simple yet effective solution to…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into high-stakes applications, making robust safety guarantees a central practical and commercial concern. Existing safety evaluations predominantly rely on fixed collections of…

The text produced by language models (LMs) can exhibit specific `behaviors,' such as a failure to follow alignment training, that we hope to detect and react to during deployment. Identifying these behaviors can often only be done post…

Pre-deployment evaluations inspect only a limited sample of model actions. A malicious model seeking to evade oversight could exploit this by randomizing when to "defect": misbehaving so rarely that no malicious actions are observed during…

A fundamental issue in deep learning has been adversarial robustness. As these systems have scaled, such issues have persisted. Currently, large language models (LLMs) with billions of parameters suffer from adversarial attacks just like…

Estimating uncertainty in Large Language Models (LLMs) is important for properly evaluating LLMs, and ensuring safety for users. However, prior approaches to uncertainty estimation focus on the final answer in generated text, ignoring…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are transforming scholarly tasks like search and summarization, but their reliability remains uncertain. Current evaluation metrics for testing LLM reliability are primarily automated approaches that prioritize…

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly prevalent in security research. Their unique characteristics, however, introduce challenges that undermine established paradigms of reproducibility, rigor, and evaluation. Prior work has…

Large-language models are capable of completing a variety of tasks, but remain unpredictable and intractable. Representation engineering seeks to resolve this problem through a new approach utilizing samples of contrasting inputs to detect…

Large Language Models (LLMs) remain vulnerable to jailbreak attacks that bypass their safety mechanisms. Existing attack methods are fixed or specifically tailored for certain models and cannot flexibly adjust attack strength, which is…

Evaluations of large language model (LLM) risks and capabilities are increasingly being incorporated into AI risk management and governance frameworks. Currently, most risk evaluations are conducted by designing inputs that elicit harmful…

Large language models (LLMs) often generate fluent but factually incorrect outputs, known as hallucinations, which undermine their reliability in real-world applications. While uncertainty estimation has emerged as a promising strategy for…

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across a wide range of tasks in various domains. Despite their impressive performance, they can be unreliable due to factual errors in their generations. Assessing their…

This article analyzes the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) as support for the conceptual modeling of relational databases through the automatic generation of Entity-Relationship (ER) diagrams from natural language requirements. The…

Many recent papers have studied the development of superforecaster-level event forecasting LLMs. While methodological problems with early studies cast doubt on the use of LLMs for event forecasting, recent studies with improved evaluation…

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has enhanced software development processes, minimizing the time and effort required for coding and enhancing developer productivity. However, despite their potential benefits, code…

Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior…

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in agentic and multi-turn workflows where they are tasked to perform actions of significant consequence. In order to deploy them reliably and manage risky outcomes in these settings, it…

Large language models (LM) generate remarkably fluent text and can be efficiently adapted across NLP tasks. Measuring and guaranteeing the quality of generated text in terms of safety is imperative for deploying LMs in the real world; to…