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We discuss the statistical properties of a recently introduced unbiased stochastic approximation to the score equations for maximum likelihood calculation for Gaussian processes. Under certain conditions, including bounded condition number…

Applications · Statistics 2013-12-11 Michael L. Stein , Jie Chen , Mihai Anitescu

We develop a Gaussian-process mixture model for heterogeneous treatment effect estimation that leverages the use of transformed outcomes. The approach we will present attempts to improve point estimation and uncertainty quantification…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-19 Abbas Zaidi , Sayan Mukherjee

Stepped-wedge designs are increasingly used in randomized experiments to accommodate logistical and ethical constraints by staggering treatment roll-out over time. Despite their popularity, existing analytical methods largely rely on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-12 Liangbo Lyu , Bingkai Wang

Bayesian optimisation has gained great popularity as a tool for optimising the parameters of machine learning algorithms and models. Somewhat ironically, setting up the hyper-parameters of Bayesian optimisation methods is notoriously hard.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-07-01 Ziyu Wang , Nando de Freitas

Experimental design is a process of obtaining a product with target property via experimentation. Bayesian optimization offers a sample-efficient tool for experimental design when experiments are expensive. Often, expert experimenters have…

We propose an algorithm to approximate solutions of global optimization problems in Sobolev spaces that follows the spirit of Consensus-based algorithms in finite dimensions. The main ingredient are Gaussian processes. In fact, we exploit…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-17 Mahmoud Khatab , Claudia Totzeck

Adjusting for covariates in randomized controlled trials can enhance the credibility and efficiency of treatment effect estimation. However, handling numerous covariates and their complex (non-linear) transformations poses a challenge.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-22 Yi Liu , Ke Zhu , Larry Han , Shu Yang

Optimal design facilitates intelligent data collection. In this paper, we introduce a fully Bayesian design approach for spatial processes with complex covariance structures, like those typically exhibited in natural ecosystems. Coordinate…

We propose a variance-penalized formulation of Bayesian optimal experimental design for nonlinear models that augments the classical expected utility criterion with a penalty on utility variability, yielding a mean--variance objective that…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Wanggang Shen , Xun Huan

A benefit of randomized experiments is that covariate distributions of treatment and control groups are balanced on average, resulting in simple unbiased estimators for treatment effects. However, it is possible that a particular…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-01 Zach Branson , Luke Miratrix

To minimize the mean squared error (MSE) in global average treatment effect (GATE) estimation under network interference, a popular approach is to use a cluster-randomized design. However, in the presence of homophily, which is common in…

The generation of decision-theoretic Bayesian optimal designs is complicated by the significant computational challenge of minimising an analytically intractable expected loss function over a, potentially, high-dimensional design space. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-07 Antony M. Overstall , James M. McGree , Christopher C. Drovandi

Identification of optimal dose combinations in early phase dose-finding trials is challenging, due to the trade-off between precisely estimating the many parameters required to flexibly model the possibly non-monotonic dose-response…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-13 James Willard , Shirin Golchi , Erica E. M. Moodie , Bruno Boulanger , Bradley P. Carlin

Gaussian process modeling is a standard tool for building emulators for computer experiments, which are usually used to study deterministic functions, for example, a solution to a given system of partial differential equations. This work…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-01 Wenjia Wang

Restricting randomization in the design of experiments (e.g., using blocking/stratification, pair-wise matching, or rerandomization) can improve the treatment-control balance on important covariates and therefore improve the estimation of…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-11-02 Brian Quistorff , Gentry Johnson

There has been a growing interest in covariate adjustment in the analysis of randomized controlled trials in past years. For instance, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently issued guidance that emphasizes the importance of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-12 Kelly Van Lancker , Frank Bretz , Oliver Dukes

This paper takes a different approach for the distributed linear parameter estimation over a multi-agent network. The parameter vector is considered to be stochastic with a Gaussian distribution. The sensor measurements at each agent are…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-04-19 Subhro Das

We propose a computational approach to constructing exact designs on finite design spaces that are optimal for multiresponse regression experiments under a combination of the standard linear and specific 'sparsity' constraints. The linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-13 Lenka Filová , Pál Somogyi , Radoslav Harman

Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) is a methodology to identify experiments that are expected to yield informative data. Recent work in cognitive science considered BOED for computational models of human behavior with tractable and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-01 Simon Valentin , Steven Kleinegesse , Neil R. Bramley , Michael U. Gutmann , Christopher G. Lucas

Two commonly used methods for improving precision and power in clinical trials are stratified randomization and covariate adjustment. However, many trials do not fully capitalize on the combined precision gains from these two methods, which…