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Identifying unfamiliar inputs, also known as out-of-distribution (OOD) detection, is a crucial property of any decision making process. A simple and empirically validated technique is based on deep ensembles where the variance of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-19 Seijin Kobayashi , Pau Vilimelis Aceituno , Johannes von Oswald

Modern neural network architectures have achieved remarkable accuracies but remain highly dependent on their training data, often lacking interpretability in their learned mappings. While effective on large datasets, they tend to overfit on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Pavia Bera , Sanjukta Bhanja

The task of quantifying the inherent uncertainty associated with neural network predictions is a key challenge in artificial intelligence. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and deep ensembles are among the most prominent approaches to tackle…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Valentin Villecroze , Yixin Wang , Gabriel Loaiza-Ganem

Despite achieving enormous success in predictive accuracy for visual classification problems, deep neural networks (DNNs) suffer from providing overconfident probabilities on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Yet, accurate uncertainty…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-05-17 Zongyao Lyu , Nolan B. Gutierrez , William J. Beksi

Modern neural networks tend to be overconfident on unseen, noisy or incorrectly labelled data and do not produce meaningful uncertainty measures. Bayesian deep learning aims to address this shortcoming with variational approximations (such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-28 Nick Pawlowski , Andrew Brock , Matthew C. H. Lee , Martin Rajchl , Ben Glocker

Detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples is essential for ensuring the reliability of deep neural networks (DNNs) in real-world scenarios. While previous research has predominantly investigated the disparity between in-distribution (ID)…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-23 Yingwen Wu , Tao Li , Xinwen Cheng , Jie Yang , Xiaolin Huang

Uncertainty quantification is essential when dealing with ill-conditioned inverse problems due to the inherent nonuniqueness of the solution. Bayesian approaches allow us to determine how likely an estimation of the unknown parameters is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-16 Ali Siahkoohi , Gabrio Rizzuti , Felix J. Herrmann

LiDAR-based perception is critical for autonomous driving due to its robustness to poor lighting and visibility conditions. Yet, current models operate under the closed-set assumption and often fail to recognize unexpected…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-20 Zizhao Li , Zhengkang Xiang , Jiayang Ao , Feng Liu , Joseph West , Kourosh Khoshelham

Modern neural networks often produce miscalibrated confidence scores and struggle to detect out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs, while most existing methods post-process outputs without testing internal consistency. We introduce the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Agnideep Aich , Sameera Hewage , Md Monzur Murshed , Bruce Wade , Ashit Baran Aich

We propose a novel prediction interval (PI) method for uncertainty quantification, which addresses three major issues with the state-of-the-art PI methods. First, existing PI methods require retraining of neural networks (NNs) for every…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-17 Siyan Liu , Pei Zhang , Dan Lu , Guannan Zhang

Despite the huge success of deep neural networks (NNs), finding good mechanisms for quantifying their prediction uncertainty is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are one of the most popular approaches to uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-01 Agustinus Kristiadi , Sina Däubener , Asja Fischer

This paper develops nonparametric estimation for discrete choice models based on the mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) model. It has been shown that MMNL models encompass all discrete choice models derived under the assumption of random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-02-25 Pierpaolo De Blasi , Lancelot F. James , John W. Lau

Machine learning methods such as deep neural networks (DNNs), despite their success across different domains, are known to often generate incorrect predictions with high confidence on inputs outside their training distribution. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-10 Ramneet Kaur , Susmit Jha , Anirban Roy , Sangdon Park , Edgar Dobriban , Oleg Sokolsky , Insup Lee

Many neural network-based out-of-distribution (OoD) detection methods have been proposed. However, they require many training data for each target task. We propose a simple yet effective meta-learning method to detect OoD with small…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Tomoharu Iwata , Atsutoshi Kumagai

Although deep learning models have achieved state-of-the-art performance on a number of vision tasks, generalization over high dimensional multi-modal data, and reliable predictive uncertainty estimation are still active areas of research.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-10 Samarth Sinha , Homanga Bharadhwaj , Anirudh Goyal , Hugo Larochelle , Animesh Garg , Florian Shkurti

Although deep neural networks have demonstrated significant success due to their powerful expressiveness, most models struggle to meet practical requirements for uncertainty estimation. Concurrently, the entangled nature of deep neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Xinyue Hu , Zhibin Duan , Bo Chen , Mingyuan Zhou

Bayesian neural networks with latent variables are scalable and flexible probabilistic models: They account for uncertainty in the estimation of the network weights and, by making use of latent variables, can capture complex noise patterns…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-19 Stefan Depeweg , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Finale Doshi-Velez , Steffen Udluft

Various approaches have been proposed for out-of-distribution (OOD) detection by augmenting models, input examples, training sets, and optimization objectives. Deviating from existing work, we have a simple hypothesis that standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-29 Xin Dong , Junfeng Guo , Ang Li , Wei-Te Ting , Cong Liu , H. T. Kung

Deep neural networks are behind many of the recent successes in machine learning applications. However, these models can produce overconfident decisions while encountering out-of-distribution (OOD) examples or making a wrong prediction.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-24 Navid Kardan , Ankit Sharma , Kenneth O. Stanley

Improving the reliability of deployed machine learning systems often involves developing methods to detect out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. However, existing research often narrowly focuses on samples from classes that are absent from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-11 Charles Guille-Escuret , Pierre-André Noël , Ioannis Mitliagkas , David Vazquez , Joao Monteiro