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In many practical applications of machine learning, a discrepancy often arises between a source distribution from which labeled training examples are drawn and a target distribution for which only unlabeled data is observed. Traditionally,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-05 Paweł Teisseyre , Jan Mielniczuk

This paper addresses the covariate shift problem in the context of nonparametric regression within reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs). Covariate shift arises in supervised learning when the input distributions of the training and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-21 Andrea Della Vecchia , Arnaud Mavakala Watusadisi , Ernesto De Vito , Lorenzo Rosasco

With increasing reliance on the outcomes of black-box models in critical applications, post-hoc explainability tools that do not require access to the model internals are often used to enable humans understand and trust these models. In…

In the field of Machine Learning (ML) and data-driven applications, one of the significant challenge is the change in data distribution between the training and deployment stages, commonly known as distribution shift. This paper outlines…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Lakpa Tamang , Mohamed Reda Bouadjenek , Richard Dazeley , Sunil Aryal

In the face of dataset shift, model calibration plays a pivotal role in ensuring the reliability of machine learning systems. Calibration error (CE) is an indicator of the alignment between the predicted probabilities and the classifier…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-15 Teodora Popordanoska , Gorjan Radevski , Tinne Tuytelaars , Matthew B. Blaschko

We propose a novel calibration method for computer simulators, dealing with the problem of covariate shift. Covariate shift is the situation where input distributions for training and test are different, and ubiquitous in applications of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-20 Keiichi Kisamori , Motonobu Kanagawa , Keisuke Yamazaki

The main challenge that sets transfer learning apart from traditional supervised learning is the distribution shift, reflected as the shift between the source and target models and that between the marginal covariate distributions. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-02 Zelin He , Ying Sun , Jingyuan Liu , Runze Li

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

In many applications, especially due to lack of supervision or privacy concerns, the training data is grouped into bags of instances (feature-vectors) and for each bag we have only an aggregate label derived from the instance-labels in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-16 Sagalpreet Singh , Navodita Sharma , Shreyas Havaldar , Rishi Saket , Aravindan Raghuveer

Distribution shifts introduce uncertainty that undermines the robustness and generalization capabilities of machine learning models. While conventional wisdom suggests that learning causal-invariant representations enhances robustness to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Abbavaram Gowtham Reddy , Celia Rubio-Madrigal , Rebekka Burkholz , Krikamol Muandet

We consider the problem of using expert data with unobserved confounders for imitation and reinforcement learning. We begin by defining the problem of learning from confounded expert data in a contextual MDP setup. We analyze the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-14 Guy Tennenholtz , Assaf Hallak , Gal Dalal , Shie Mannor , Gal Chechik , Uri Shalit

Distribution shifts between training and testing datasets significantly impair the model performance on graph learning. A commonly-taken causal view in graph invariant learning suggests that stable predictive features of graphs are causally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Bohan Wang , Yurui Chang , Wei Jin , Lu Lin

An assumption often made in supervised learning is that the training and testing sets have the same label distribution. However, in real-life scenarios, this assumption rarely holds. For example, medical diagnosis result distributions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Yunrui Zhang , Gustavo Batista , Salil S. Kanhere

Transfer Learning is an area of statistics and machine learning research that seeks answers to the following question: how do we build successful learning algorithms when the data available for training our model is qualitatively different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-09 Brandon Tse Wei Chow

Classifier predictions often rely on the assumption that new observations come from the same distribution as training data. When the underlying distribution changes, so does the optimal classification rule, and performance may degrade. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-01 Ciaran Evans , Max G'Sell

Stochastic optimization problems often involve data distributions that change in reaction to the decision variables. This is the case for example when members of the population respond to a deployed classifier by manipulating their features…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-15 Dmitriy Drusvyatskiy , Lin Xiao

Distribution shift occurs when the test distribution differs from the training distribution, and it can considerably degrade performance of machine learning models deployed in the real world. Temporal shifts -- distribution shifts arising…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Huaxiu Yao , Caroline Choi , Bochuan Cao , Yoonho Lee , Pang Wei Koh , Chelsea Finn

Predictive models that generalize well under distributional shift are often desirable and sometimes crucial to building robust and reliable machine learning applications. We focus on distributional shift that arises in causal inference from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-27 Fredrik D. Johansson , Nathan Kallus , Uri Shalit , David Sontag

Covariate shift occurs prevalently in practice, where the input distributions of the source and target data are substantially different. Despite its practical importance in various learning problems, most of the existing methods only focus…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-20 Xingdong Feng , Xin He , Caixing Wang , Chao Wang , Jingnan Zhang

Signal Temporal Logic (STL) inference learns interpretable logical rules for temporal behaviors in dynamical systems. To ensure the correctness of learned STL formulas, recent approaches have incorporated conformal prediction as a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Yixuan Wang , Danyang Li , Matthew Cleaveland , Roberto Tron , Mingyu Cai