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Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. We propose a new SMC algorithm to compute the expectation of additive functionals recursively.…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-12-27 Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet , Sumeetpal Singh

In this article we develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo estimation. In particular, the method can be used to estimate expectations with respect to a target probability distribution over an…

Computation · Statistics 2017-03-16 Alexandros Beskos , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Youssef Marzouk , Yan Zhou

We propose a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method to efficiently and accurately compute cut-Bayesian posterior quantities of interest, variations of standard Bayesian approaches constructed primarily to account for model misspecification. We…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-13 Joseph Mathews , Giri Gopalan , James Gattiker , Sean Smith , Devin Francom

Recently, a class of efficient spectral Monte-Carlo methods was developed in \cite{Feng2025ExponentiallyAS} for solving fractional Poisson equations. These methods fully consider the low regularity of the solution near boundaries and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-07 Lisen Ding , Mingyi Wang , Dongling Wang

In this article we consider a Bayesian inverse problem associated to elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs) in two and three dimensions. This class of inverse problems is important in applications such as hydrology, but the…

Computation · Statistics 2014-12-16 Alex Beskos , Ajay Jasra , Ege Muzaffer , Andrew Stuart

A first-order, Monte Carlo ensemble method has been recently introduced for solving parabolic equations with random coefficients in [26], which is a natural synthesis of the ensemble-based, Monte Carlo sampling algorithm and the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-19 Yan Luo , Zhu Wang

Stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) are often difficult to solve numerically due to their low regularity and high dimensionality. These challenges limit the practical use of computer-aided studies and pose significant barriers…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-02-04 Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Håkon Hoel , Andreas Petersson

This paper presents a new method for the solution of multiscale stochastic differential equations at the diffusive time scale. In contrast to averaging-based methods, e.g., the heterogeneous multiscale method (HMM) or the equation-free…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-09-19 A. Abdulle , G. A. Pavliotis , U. Vaes

This paper concerns the use of sequential Monte Carlo methods (SMC) for smoothing in general state space models. A well-known problem when applying the standard SMC technique in the smoothing mode is that the resampling mechanism introduces…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-03-06 Jimmy Olsson , Olivier Cappé , Randal Douc , Eric Moulines

The identification of parameters in mathematical models using noisy observations is a common task in uncertainty quantification. We employ the framework of Bayesian inversion: we combine monitoring and observational data with prior…

Computation · Statistics 2018-05-11 Jonas Latz , Iason Papaioannou , Elisabeth Ullmann

This paper develops a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approach for joint state and parameter estimation that can deal efficiently with abruptly changing parameters which is a common case when tracking maneuvering targets. The approach…

Computation · Statistics 2015-10-12 Christopher Nemeth , Paul Fearnhead , Lyudmila Mihaylova

We apply the Monte Carlo method to solving the Dirichlet problem of linear parabolic equations with fractional Laplacian. This method exploit- s the idea of weak approximation of related stochastic differential equations driven by the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-10-28 Caiyu Jiao , Changpin Li

In this article, we propose a space-time Multi-Index Monte Carlo (MIMC) estimator for a one-dimensional parabolic stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) of Zakai type. We compare the complexity with the Multilevel Monte Carlo…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-12-09 Zhenru Wang , Christoph Reisinger

In this article we consider the approximation of expectations w.r.t. probability distributions associated to the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs); this scenario appears routinely in Bayesian inverse problems. In practice,…

Computation · Statistics 2017-02-07 Alexandros Beskos , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Raul Tempone , Yan Zhou

This paper introduces methodology for performing Bayesian inference sequentially on a sequence of posteriors on spaces of different dimensions. We show how this may be achieved through the use of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers (Del…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-02 Richard G Everitt , Richard Culliford , Felipe Medina-Aguayo , Daniel J Wilson

We present a novel multilevel Monte Carlo approach for estimating quantities of interest for stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). Drawing inspiration from [Giles and Szpruch: Antithetic multilevel Monte Carlo estimation for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-15 Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Andreas Stein

We propose sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for sampling the posterior distribution of state-space models under highly informative observation regimes, a situation in which standard SMC methods can perform poorly. A special case is…

Computation · Statistics 2015-07-10 Pierre Del Moral , Lawrence M. Murray

This work introduces a new method designed for Bayesian deep learning called scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo (SBMC). The method is comprised of a model and an algorithm. The model interpolates between a point estimator and the posterior. The…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluations. We introduce a scalable variant by incorporating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Andrew Millard , Zheng Zhao , Joshua Murphy , Simon Maskell

One of the key challenges in identifying nonlinear and possibly non-Gaussian state space models (SSMs) is the intractability of estimating the system state. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, such as the particle filter (introduced more…

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