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Importance sampling (IS) is commonly used for cross validation (CV) in Bayesian models, because it only involves reweighting existing posterior draws without needing to re-estimate the model by re-running Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).…

Computation · Statistics 2025-08-12 Geonhee Han , Andrew Gelman

Group number selection is a key problem for group panel data modeling. In this work, we develop a cross-validation (CV) method to tackle this problem. Specifically, we split the panel data into two data folds on the time span, with group…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-19 Zhe Li , Xuening Zhu , Changliang Zou

Recent advances in deep learning have achieved impressive gains in classification accuracy on a variety of types of data, including images and text. Despite these gains, however, concerns have been raised about the calibration, robustness,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-20 Dallas Card , Michael Zhang , Noah A. Smith

Causal inference starts with a simple idea: compare groups that differ by treatment, not much else. Traditionally, similar groups are constructed using only observed covariates; however, it remains a long-standing challenge to incorporate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-21 Ying Jin , José Zubizarreta

It is useful to estimate the expected predictive performance of models planned to be used for prediction. We focus on leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV), which has become a popular method for estimating predictive performance of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-29 Tuomas Sivula , Måns Magnusson , Asael Alonzo Matamoros , Aki Vehtari

Variance estimation is a fundamental problem in statistical modeling. In ultrahigh dimensional linear regressions where the dimensionality is much larger than sample size, traditional variance estimation techniques are not applicable.…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-12-27 Jianqing Fan , Shaojun Guo , Ning Hao

Generalized additive partial linear models (GAPLMs) are appealing for model interpretation and prediction. However, for GAPLMs, the covariates and the degree of smoothing in the nonparametric parts are often difficult to determine in…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-06 Ze Chen , Jun Liao , Wangli Xu , Yuhong Yang

Decoding, ie prediction from brain images or signals, calls for empirical evaluation of its predictive power. Such evaluation is achieved via cross-validation, a method also used to tune decoders' hyper-parameters. This paper is a review on…

This paper introduces and develops a theoretical extension of the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC), called the Covariance-Corrected WAIC (CC-WAIC), that applied for Bayesian sequential data models. The CC-WAIC accounts for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Safaa K. Kadhem

Cross-validation (CV) is often used to select the regularization parameter in high dimensional problems. However, when applied to the sparse modeling method Lasso, CV leads to models that are unstable in high-dimensions, and consequently…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-28 Chinghway Lim , Bin Yu

Cross-validation under sample selection bias can, in principle, be done by importance-weighting the empirical risk. However, the importance-weighted risk estimator produces sub-optimal hyperparameter estimates in problem settings where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-28 Wouter M. Kouw , Jesse H. Krijthe , Marco Loog

Super learner algorithm can be applied to combine results of multiple base learners to improve quality of predictions. The default method for verification of super learner results is by nested cross validation. It has been proposed by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-19 Krzysztof Mnich , Agnieszka Kitlas Golińska , Aneta Polewko-Klim , Witold R. Rudnicki

In this article, we rigorously establish the consistency of generalized cross-validation as a parameter-choice rule for solving inverse problems. We prove that the index chosen by leave-one-out GCV achieves a non-asymptotic, order-optimal…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-18 Tim Jahn , Mikhail Kirilin

The problem of validating or criticising models for georeferenced data is challenging, since the conclusions can vary significantly depending on the locations of the validation set. This work proposes the use of cross-validation techniques…

Computation · Statistics 2018-02-19 Viviana G R Lobo , Thaís C O da Fonseca , Fernando A S Moura

The contributions of this paper are twofold. First, we show the potential interest of Complex-Valued Neural Network (CVNN) on classification tasks for complex-valued datasets. To highlight this assertion, we investigate an example of…

Cross-validation is a statistical tool that can be used to improve large covariance matrix estimation. Although its efficiency is observed in practical applications and a convergence result towards the error of the non linear shrinkage is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-18 Lamia Lamrani , Christian Bongiorno , Marc Potters

We consider the problem of bandwidth selection by cross-validation from a sequential point of view in a nonparametric regression model. Having in mind that in applications one often aims at estimation, prediction and change detection…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-20 Ansgar Steland

Cross-validation is a well-known and widely used bandwidth selection method in nonparametric regression estimation. However, this technique has two remarkable drawbacks: (i) the large variability of the selected bandwidths, and (ii) the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-11 D. Barreiro-Ures , R. Cao , M. Francisco-Fernández

Given a high-dimensional covariate matrix and a response vector, ridge-regularized sparse linear regression selects a subset of features that explains the relationship between covariates and the response in an interpretable manner. To…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-13 Ryan Cory-Wright , Andrés Gómez

Standard evaluation metrics for machine learning -- accuracy, precision, recall, and AUROC -- assume that all errors are equivalent: a confident incorrect prediction is penalized identically to an uncertain one. For discrete commitment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Datorien L. Anderson