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This article presents the complexity of reachability decision problems for parametric Markov decision processes (pMDPs), an extension to Markov decision processes (MDPs) where transitions probabilities are described by polynomials over a…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2020-09-29 Sebastian Junges , Joost-Pieter Katoen , Guillermo A. Pérez , Tobias Winkler

In robust Markov decision processes (RMDPs), it is assumed that the reward and the transition dynamics lie in a given uncertainty set. By targeting maximal return under the most adversarial model from that set, RMDPs address performance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-13 Uri Gadot , Esther Derman , Navdeep Kumar , Maxence Mohamed Elfatihi , Kfir Levy , Shie Mannor

Markov chains and Markov decision processes (MDPs) are well-established probabilistic models. While finite Markov models are well-understood, analysing their infinite counterparts remains a significant challenge. Decisiveness has proven to…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-04-23 Nathalie Bertrand , Patricia Bouyer , Thomas Brihaye , Paulin Fournier , Pierre Vandenhove

We study the problem of synthesizing a policy that maximizes the entropy of a Markov decision process (MDP) subject to a temporal logic constraint. Such a policy minimizes the predictability of the paths it generates, or dually, maximizes…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-06-17 Yagiz Savas , Melkior Ornik , Murat Cubuktepe , Mustafa O. Karabag , Ufuk Topcu

We propose policy gradient algorithms for robust infinite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) with non-rectangular uncertainty sets, thereby addressing an open challenge in the robust MDP literature. Indeed, uncertainty sets that…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-30 Mengmeng Li , Daniel Kuhn , Tobias Sutter

Evaluating hypothetical statements about how the world would be had a different course of action been taken is arguably one key capability expected from modern AI systems. Counterfactual reasoning underpins discussions in fairness, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-04 Kevin Xia , Yushu Pan , Elias Bareinboim

We consider the problem of solving robust Markov decision process (MDP), which involves a set of discounted, finite state, finite action space MDPs with uncertain transition kernels. The goal of planning is to find a robust policy that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Yan Li , Guanghui Lan , Tuo Zhao

Robust Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and risk-sensitive MDPs are both powerful tools for making decisions in the presence of uncertainties. Previous efforts have aimed to establish their connections, revealing equivalences in specific…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-27 Runyu Zhang , Yang Hu , Na Li

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) are essential for interpreting black-box models, yet they often become invalid when models are slightly changed. Existing methods for generating robust CFEs are often limited to specific types of models,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Marcin Kostrzewa , Maciej Zięba , Jerzy Stefanowski

Contrasting marginal counterfactual survival curves across treatment arms is an effective and popular approach for inferring the causal effect of an intervention on a right-censored time-to-event outcome. A key challenge to drawing such…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-29 Andrew Ying , Yifan Cui , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Robust Markov decision processes (MDPs) provide a general framework to model decision problems where the system dynamics are changing or only partially known. Efficient methods for some \texttt{sa}-rectangular robust MDPs exist, using its…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-10-06 Navdeep Kumar , Kfir Levy , Kaixin Wang , Shie Mannor

This paper presents with justifications a technique that is useful for the study of piecewise deterministic Markov decision processes (PDMDPs) with general policies and unbounded transition intensities. This technique produces an auxiliary…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-06-15 Xin Guo , Yi Zhang

We present an optimization-based framework for robust permissive synthesis for Interval Markov Decision Processes (IMDPs), motivated by robotic decision-making under transition uncertainty. In many robotic systems, model inaccuracies and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Khang Vo Huynh , David Parker , Lu Feng

We consider synthesis of control policies that maximize the probability of satisfying given temporal logic specifications in unknown, stochastic environments. We model the interaction between the system and its environment as a Markov…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2014-05-01 Jie Fu , Ufuk Topcu

We introduce an approach to counterfactual inference based on merging information from multiple datasets. We consider a causal reformulation of the statistical marginal problem: given a collection of marginal structural causal models (SCMs)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-07-18 Luigi Gresele , Julius von Kügelgen , Jonas M. Kübler , Elke Kirschbaum , Bernhard Schölkopf , Dominik Janzing

This paper investigates a series of optimization problems for one-counter Markov decision processes (MDPs) and integer-weighted MDPs with finite state space. Specifically, it considers problems addressing termination probabilities and…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-08-07 Jakob Piribauer , Christel Baier

We study the problem of policy synthesis for uncertain partially observable Markov decision processes (uPOMDPs). The transition probability function of uPOMDPs is only known to belong to a so-called uncertainty set, for instance in the form…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-01-24 Marnix Suilen , Nils Jansen , Murat Cubuktepe , Ufuk Topcu

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are used to model a wide variety of applications ranging from game playing over robotics to finance. Their optimal policy typically maximizes the expected sum of rewards given at each step of the decision…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Maximilian Nägele , Jan Olle , Thomas Fösel , Remmy Zen , Florian Marquardt

This paper considers an infinite-horizon Markov decision process (MDP) that allows for general non-exponential discount functions, in both discrete and continuous time. Due to the inherent time inconsistency, we look for a randomized…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-12-10 Erhan Bayraktar , Yu-Jui Huang , Zhenhua Wang , Zhou Zhou

We present a general framework for applying machine-learning algorithms to the verification of Markov decision processes (MDPs). The primary goal of these techniques is to improve performance by avoiding an exhaustive exploration of the…