Related papers: Quantitative, Data-driven Network Model for Global…
The global balance index is used in the network literature to quantify how balanced a signed network is. In this paper we show that the global balance index of financial correlation networks can be used as a systemic risk measure. We define…
We consider discrete-time dynamics, for cascading failure in DC networks, whose map is composition of failure rule with control actions. Supply-demand at the nodes is monotonically non-increasing under admissible control. Under the failure…
Financial crises emerge when structural vulnerabilities accumulate across sectors, markets, and investor behavior. Predicting these systemic transitions is challenging because they arise from evolving interactions between market…
Cascading failures, such as bankruptcies and defaults, pose a serious threat for the resilience of the global financial system. Indeed, because of the complex investment and cross-holding relations within the system, failures can occur as a…
Financial networks are characterized by complex structures of mutual obligations. These obligations are fulfilled entirely or in part (when defaults occur) via a mechanism called clearing, which determines a set of payments that settle the…
Interbank contagion can theoretically exacerbate losses in a financial system and lead to additional cascade defaults during downturn. In this paper we produce default analysis using both regression and neural network models to verify…
Groups of enterprises can serve as guarantees for one another and form complex networks when obtaining loans from commercial banks. During economic slowdowns, corporate default may spread like a virus and lead to large-scale defaults or…
With the sharp increase of power demand, large-scale blackouts in power grids occur frequently around the world. Cascading failures are the main causes of network outages. Therefore, revealing the complicated cascade mechanism in grids is…
We study cross-country GDP losses due to financial crises in terms of frequency (number of loss events per period) and severity (loss per occurrence). We perform the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) to estimate a multi-country aggregate GDP…
Economic interdependencies have become increasingly present in globalized production, financial and trade systems. While establishing interdependencies among economic agents is crucial for the production of complex products, they may also…
National economies rest on networks of millions of customer-supplier relations. Some companies -- in the case of their default -- can trigger significant cascades of shock in the supply-chain network and are thus systemically risky. Up to…
The understanding of cascading failures in complex systems has been hindered by the lack of realistic large-scale modeling and analysis that can account for variable system conditions. Here, using the North American power grid, we identify,…
A major impact of globalization has been the information flow across the financial markets rendering them vulnerable to financial contagion. Research has focused on network analysis techniques to understand the extent and nature of such…
Although standard economics textbooks are seldom interested in production networks, modern economies are more and more based upon suppliers/customers interactions. One can consider entire sectors of the economy as generalised supply chains.…
The networked combat system-of-system (CSOS) is the trend of combat development with the innovation of technology. The achievement of combat effectiveness requires CSOS to have a good ability to deal with external interference. Here we…
The collapse of interdependent networks, as well as similar avalanche phenomena, is driven by cascading failures. At the critical point, the cascade begins as a critical branching process, where each failing node (element) triggers, on…
The Covid-19 pandemic drastically emphasized the fragility of national and international supply networks (SNs),leading to significant supply shortages of essential goods for people, such as food and medical equipment. Severe disruptions…
Financial networks are dynamic. To assess their systemic importance to the world-wide economic network and avert losses we need models that take the time variations of the links and nodes into account. Using the methodology of classical…
Accurate prediction of future loan defaults is a critical capability for financial institutions that provide lines of credit. For institutions that issue and manage extensive loan volumes, even a slight improvement in default prediction…
This paper aims to derive a quantitative model to evaluate the impact of information flow on the effectiveness of disaster response. At the core of the model is a specialized absorbing Markov chain that models the process of delivering…