Related papers: Quantitative, Data-driven Network Model for Global…
In this paper the interactions between component failures are quantified and the interaction matrix and interaction network are obtained. The quantified interactions can capture the general propagation patterns of the cascades from…
We introduce a probabilistic framework that represents stylized banking networks with the aim of predicting the size of contagion events. Most previous work on random financial networks assumes independent connections between banks, whereas…
Networked-guarantee loans may cause the systemic risk related concern of the government and banks in China. The prediction of default of enterprise loans is a typical extremely imbalanced prediction problem, and the networked-guarantee make…
We live in a modern world supported by large, complex networks. Examples range from financial markets to communication and transportation systems. In many realistic situations the flow of physical quantities in the network, as characterized…
Cascading failure models are typically used to capture the phenomenon where failures possibly trigger further failures in succession, causing knock-on effects. In many networks this ultimately leads to a disintegrated network where the…
We analyze cascades of defaults in an interbank loan market. The novel feature of this study is that the network structure and the size distribution of banks are derived from empirical data. We find that the ability of a defaulted…
For centuries, national economies created wealth by engaging in international trade and production. The resulting international supply networks not only increase wealth for countries, but also create systemic risk: economic shocks,…
Modern networks are becoming increasingly interdependent. As a prominent example, the smart grid is an electrical grid controlled through a communications network, which in turn is powered by the electrical grid. Such interdependencies…
Localized shocks arising from climate extremes, geopolitical conflicts, and trade protectionism cascade through trade networks, triggering global food crises. Cross-product substitution, a critical response strategy, induces cross-product…
A simple banking network model is proposed which features multiple waves of bank defaults and is analytically solvable in the limiting case of an infinitely large homogeneous network. The model is a collection of nodes representing…
Financial global crisis has devastating impacts to economies since early XX century and continues to impose increasing collateral damages for governments, enterprises, and society in general. Up to now, all efforts to obtain efficient…
We consider the problem of predicting power failure cascades due to branch failures. We propose a flow-free model based on graph neural networks that predicts grid states at every generation of a cascade process given an initial contingency…
This study extends the Gai-Kapadia framework, originally developed for interbank contagion, to assess systemic risk and default cascades in global equity markets. We analyze a 30 asset network comprising Brazilian and developed market…
The aim of this paper is to quantify and manage systemic risk caused by default contagion in the interbank market. We model the market as a random directed network, where the vertices represent financial institutions and the weighted edges…
Cascading failures represent a fundamental threat to the integrity of complex systems, often precipitating a comprehensive collapse across diverse infrastructures and financial networks. This research articulates a robust and pragmatic…
A new class of probabilistic models for cascading failure propagation in interconnected systems is proposed. The models take into account important characteristics of real systems that are not considered in existing generic approaches.…
In many cases of attacks or failures, memory effects play a significant role. Therefore, we present a model that not only considers the dependencies between nodes but also incorporates the memory effects of attacks. Our research…
We present an open-source Python framework for modelling cascading physical climate risk in a spatial supply-chain economy. The framework integrates geospatial flood hazards with an agent-based model of firms and households, enabling…
Recently, large-scale cascading failures in complex systems have garnered substantial attention. Such extreme events have been treated as an integral part of the self-organized criticality (SOC). Recent empirical work has suggested that…
We develop a model for contagion in reinsurance networks by which primary insurers' losses are spread through the network. Our model handles general reinsurance contracts, such as typical excess of loss contracts. We show that simpler…