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Estimating the size of hidden populations using Multiple Systems Estimation (MSE) is a critical task in quantitative sociology; however, practical application is often hindered by imperfect administrative data and computational constraints.…
Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is an approach to statistical inference where simulations from an assumed model are used to construct estimators and confidence sets. SBI is often used when the likelihood is intractable and to construct…
Model parameter inference is a universal problem across science. This challenge is particularly pronounced in developmental biology, where faithful mechanistic descriptions require spatial-stochastic models with numerous parameters, yet…
We present a Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) framework for cosmological parameter estimation via void lensing analysis. Despite the absence of an analytical model of void lensing, SBI can effectively learn posterior distributions through…
We introduce Sequential Neural Posterior Score Estimation (SNPSE), a score-based method for Bayesian inference in simulator-based models. Our method, inspired by the remarkable success of score-based methods in generative modelling,…
Bayesian simulation-based inference (SBI) methods are used in statistical models where simulation is feasible but the likelihood is intractable. Standard SBI methods can perform poorly in cases of model misspecification, and there has been…
Simulation-based inference (SBI) is a statistical inference approach for estimating latent parameters of a physical system when the likelihood is intractable but simulations are available. In practice, SBI is often hindered by model…
Neural likelihood estimation methods for simulation-based inference can suffer from performance degradation when the modeled data is very high-dimensional or lies along a lower-dimensional manifold, which is due to the inability of the…
Simulation-based inference (SBI) provides a powerful framework for inferring posterior distributions of stochastic simulators in a wide range of domains. In many settings, however, the posterior distribution is not the end goal itself --…
Simulation-based inference (SBI) is emerging as a new statistical paradigm for addressing complex scientific inference problems. By leveraging the representational power of deep neural networks, SBI can extract the most informative…
Neural simulation-based inference (SBI) is a popular set of methods for Bayesian inference when models are only available in the form of a simulator. These methods are widely used in the sciences and engineering, where writing down a…
We present Sequential Neural Variational Inference (SNVI), an approach to perform Bayesian inference in models with intractable likelihoods. SNVI combines likelihood-estimation (or likelihood-ratio-estimation) with variational inference to…
Simulation-based inference (SBI) is an established approach for performing Bayesian inference on scientific simulators. SBI so far works best on low-dimensional parametric models. However, it is difficult to infer function-valued…
A major challenge in sample-based inference (SBI) for Bayesian neural networks is the size and structure of the networks' parameter space. Our work shows that successful SBI is possible by embracing the characteristic relationship between…
In many areas of science, complex phenomena are modeled by stochastic parametric simulators, often featuring high-dimensional parameter spaces and intractable likelihoods. In this context, performing Bayesian inference can be challenging.…
Scientists and engineers employ stochastic numerical simulators to model empirically observed phenomena. In contrast to purely statistical models, simulators express scientific principles that provide powerful inductive biases, improve…
Nested sampling (NS) computes parameter posterior distributions and makes Bayesian model comparison computationally feasible. Its strengths are the unsupervised navigation of complex, potentially multi-modal posteriors until a well-defined…
Black-box simulators are widely used in robotics, but optimizing their parameters remains challenging due to inaccessible likelihoods. Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) tackles this issue using simulation-driven approaches, estimating the…
Accurate condition monitoring of industrial equipment requires inferring latent degradation parameters from indirect sensor measurements under uncertainty. While traditional Bayesian methods like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provide…
Making inferences about physical properties of the Universe requires knowledge of the data likelihood. A Gaussian distribution is commonly assumed for the uncertainties with a covariance matrix estimated from a set of simulations. The noise…