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We use generative AI to extract managerial expectations about their economic outlook from 120,000+ corporate conference call transcripts. The resulting AI Economy Score predicts GDP growth, production, and employment up to 10 quarters…
The development of AGI threatens to erode government tax bases, lower living standards, and disempower citizens -- risks that make the 40-year stagnation of wages during the first industrial revolution look mild in comparison. While AI…
The rapid rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI) is driving unprecedented growth in global computational demand, placing increasing pressure on electricity systems. This study introduces an AI-energy coupling framework that…
Task-based models of AI and labor hold organizational structure fixed. We introduce agent capital: AI that reduces coordination costs, expanding spans of control and enabling endogenous task creation. Five propositions characterize how…
We examine whether substantial AI automation could accelerate global economic growth by about an order of magnitude, akin to the economic growth effects of the Industrial Revolution. We identify three primary drivers for such growth: 1) the…
We formalize a macro-financial stress test for rapid AI adoption. Rather than a productivity bust or existential risk, we identify a distribution-and-contract mismatch: AI-generated abundance coexists with demand deficiency because economic…
The integration of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) into economic production represents a transformative shift with profound implications for labor markets, income distribution, and technological growth. This study extends the Constant…
This paper examines the profound challenges that transformative advances in AI towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will pose for economists and economic policymakers. I examine how the Age of AI will revolutionize the basic…
This article develops the concept of the agentic economy and diagnoses its measurable preconditions: a transition in which economic action is increasingly distributed among humans, AI agents, industrial robots, executable protocols, compute…
Recent progress in artificial intelligence (AI) marks a pivotal moment in human history. It presents the opportunity for machines to learn, adapt, and perform tasks that have the potential to assist people, from everyday activities to their…
Generative AI compresses within-task skill differences while shifting economic value toward concentrated complementary assets, creating an apparent paradox: the technology that equalizes individual performance may widen aggregate…
Generative AI is altering work processes, task composition, and organizational design, yet its effects on employment and the macroeconomy remain unresolved. In this review, we synthesize theory and empirical evidence at three levels. First,…
We study how AI agents form expectations and trade in experimental asset markets. Using a simulated open-call auction populated by autonomous Large Language Model (LLM) agents, we document three main findings. First, AI agents exhibit…
Generative AI is a technology which depends in part on participation by humans in training and improving the automation potential. We focus on the development of an "AI twin" that could complement its creator's efforts, enabling them to…
Traditionally, AI has been modeled within economics as a technology that impacts payoffs by reducing costs or refining information for human agents. Our position is that, in light of recent advances in generative AI, it is increasingly…
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to reshape the way individuals communicate and interact. While this form of AI has the potential to efficiently make numerous human decisions, there is limited understanding of how…
We investigate the relation between economic growth and equality in a modified version of the agent-based asset exchange model (AEM). The modified model is a driven system that for a range of parameter space is effectively ergodic in the…
The economic success of individuals is often determined by a combination of talent, luck, and assistance from others. We introduce a new agent-based model that simultaneously considers talent, luck, and social interaction. This model allows…
Recent progress in deep learning, a special form of machine learning, has led to remarkable capabilities machines can now be endowed with: they can read and understand free flowing text, reason and bargain with human counterparts, translate…
Those best-positioned to profit from the proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI) systems are those with the most economic power. Extant global inequality has motivated Western institutions to involve more diverse groups in the…