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Statistical post-processing of dynamical forecast ensembles is an essential component of weather forecasting. In this article, we present a post-processing method that generates full predictive probability distributions for precipitation…

Applications · Statistics 2014-04-29 Michael Scheuerer

Trajectory prediction is a cornerstone in autonomous driving (AD), playing a critical role in enabling vehicles to navigate safely and efficiently in dynamic environments. To address this task, this paper presents a novel trajectory…

Predicting spatio-temporal traffic flow presents significant challenges due to complex interactions between spatial and temporal factors. Existing approaches often address these dimensions in isolation, neglecting their critical…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-15 Weilin Ruan , Wenzhuo Wang , Siru Zhong , Wei Chen , Li Liu , Yuxuan Liang

This paper proposes DiffPF, a differentiable particle filter that leverages diffusion models for state estimation in dynamic systems. Unlike conventional differentiable particle filters, which require importance weighting and typically rely…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Ziyu Wan , Lin Zhao

Maritime vessel maneuvers, characterized by their inherent complexity and indeterminacy, requires vessel trajectory prediction system capable of modeling the multi-modality nature of future motion states. Conventional stochastic trajectory…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Changlin Li , Yanglei Gan , Tian Lan , Yuxiang Cai , Xueyi Liu , Run Lin , Qiao Liu

We present a conditional diffusion model - ConDiSim, for simulation-based inference of complex systems with intractable likelihoods. ConDiSim leverages denoising diffusion probabilistic models to approximate posterior distributions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Mayank Nautiyal , Andreas Hellander , Prashant Singh

The modeling of dynamical systems is essential in many fields, but applying machine learning techniques is often challenging due to incomplete or noisy data. This study introduces a variant of stochastic interpolation (SI) for probabilistic…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-03-18 Siddharth Rout , Eldad Haber , Stéphane Gaudreault

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding the impact of human actions on Earth's climate. One key application of these models is studying extreme weather events, such as heat waves or dry spells, which have…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-04-25 Seth Bassetti , Brian Hutchinson , Claudia Tebaldi , Ben Kravitz

Missing data in spatiotemporal systems presents a significant challenge for modern applications, ranging from environmental monitoring to urban traffic management. The integrity of spatiotemporal data often deteriorates due to hardware…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Wenying He , Jieling Huang , Junhua Gu , Ji Zhang , Yude Bai

Spatio-temporal forecasting is a critical component of various smart city applications, such as transportation optimization, energy management, and socio-economic analysis. Recently, several automated spatio-temporal forecasting methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-09 Tengfei Lyu , Weijia Zhang , Jinliang Deng , Hao Liu

Macroscopic models for spatially extended systems under random influences are often described by stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). Some techniques for understanding solutions of such equations, such as estimating…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2009-03-27 Jinqiao Duan

The accurate prediction of precipitation is important to allow for reliable warnings of flood or drought risk in a changing climate. However, to make trust-worthy predictions of precipitation, at a local scale, is one of the most difficult…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-26 Sherman Lo , Peter Watson , Peter Dueben , Ritabrata Dutta

Diffusion models are a new class of generative models, and have dramatically promoted image generation with unprecedented quality and diversity. Existing diffusion models mainly try to reconstruct input image from a corrupted one with a…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Ling Yang , Jingwei Liu , Shenda Hong , Zhilong Zhang , Zhilin Huang , Zheming Cai , Wentao Zhang , Bin Cui

In this work, we aimed to replicate and extend the results presented in the DiffFluid paper[1]. The DiffFluid model showed that diffusion models combined with Transformers are capable of predicting fluid dynamics. It uses a denoising…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-07-14 Yannick Gachnang , Vismay Churiwala

Machine learning has demonstrated remarkable promise for solving the trajectory generation problem and in paving the way for online use of trajectory optimization for resource-constrained spacecraft. However, a key shortcoming in current…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Julia Briden , Breanna Johnson , Richard Linares , Abhishek Cauligi

Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-09 Matthew Bonas , Christopher K. Wikle , Stefano Castruccio

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification via prediction sets with exact finite-sample coverage. In low dimensions these sets are easy to interpret, but in high-dimensional or structured…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-08 Trevor Harris

Accurate and reliable forecasting of epidemic incidences is critical for public health preparedness, yet it remains a challenging task due to complex nonlinear temporal dependencies and heterogeneous spatial interactions. Often, point…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-10 Rajdeep Pathak , Tanujit Chakraborty

Uncertainty is an essential consideration for time series forecasting tasks. In this work, we specifically focus on quantifying the uncertainty of traffic forecasting. To achieve this, we develop Deep Spatio-Temporal Uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-12 Weizhu Qian , Dalin Zhang , Yan Zhao , Kai Zheng , James J. Q. Yu

We study a discrete denoising diffusion framework that integrates a sample-efficient estimator of single-site conditionals with round-robin noising and denoising dynamics for generative modeling over discrete state spaces. Rather than…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Karthik Elamvazhuthi , Abhijith Jayakumar , Andrey Y. Lokhov