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Related papers: Forecasting time series with constraints

200 papers

Real-world time-series datasets are often multivariate with complex dynamics. To capture this complexity, high capacity architectures like recurrent- or attention-based sequential deep learning models have become popular. However, recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Si-An Chen , Chun-Liang Li , Nate Yoder , Sercan O. Arik , Tomas Pfister

We propose a three-stage framework for forecasting high-dimensional time-series data. Our method first estimates parameters for each univariate time series. Next, we use these parameters to cluster the time series. These clusters can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-28 Reese Pathak , Rajat Sen , Nikhil Rao , N. Benjamin Erichson , Michael I. Jordan , Inderjit S. Dhillon

Deep learning models are increasingly deployed in safety-critical tasks where predictions must satisfy hard constraints, such as physical laws, fairness requirements, or safety limits. However, standard architectures lack built-in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-26 Gonzalo E. Constante-Flores , Hao Chen , Can Li

Synthetic time series are often used in practical applications to augment the historical time series dataset for better performance of machine learning algorithms, amplify the occurrence of rare events, and also create counterfactual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-18 Andrea Coletta , Sriram Gopalakrishan , Daniel Borrajo , Svitlana Vyetrenko

Conventional time-series forecasting methods typically aim to minimize overall prediction error, without accounting for the varying importance of different forecast ranges in downstream applications. We propose a training methodology that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-15 Luca-Andrei Fechete , Mohamed Sana , Fadhel Ayed , Nicola Piovesan , Wenjie Li , Antonio De Domenico , Tareq Si Salem

We address a three-tier numerical framework based on manifold learning for the forecasting of high-dimensional time series. At the first step, we embed the time series into a reduced low-dimensional space using a nonlinear manifold learning…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-03-16 Panagiotis Papaioannou , Ronen Talmon , Ioannis Kevrekidis , Constantinos Siettos

Forecasting based on financial time-series is a challenging task since most real-world data exhibits nonstationary property and nonlinear dependencies. In addition, different data modalities often embed different nonlinear relationships…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-19 Dat Thanh Tran , Juho Kanniainen , Moncef Gabbouj , Alexandros Iosifidis

Time series analysis remains a major challenge due to its sparse characteristics, high dimensionality, and inconsistent data quality. Recent advancements in transformer-based techniques have enhanced capabilities in forecasting and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-29 Robert Leppich , Vanessa Borst , Veronika Lesch , Samuel Kounev

Many applications of generalised linear models (GLMs) can be improved by applying constraints that impose assumptions on the associations or improve consistency of the estimators. Yet, there are still barriers to the implementation and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-19 Pierre Masselot , Devon Nenon , Jacopo Vanoli , Zaid Chalabi , Antonio Gasparrini

Relationships among time series can be exploited as inductive biases in learning effective forecasting models. In hierarchical time series, relationships among subsets of sequences induce hard constraints (hierarchical inductive biases) on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-22 Andrea Cini , Danilo Mandic , Cesare Alippi

Recently, there has been a growing interest in Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), which involves predicting long-term future values by analyzing a large amount of historical time-series data to identify patterns and trends. There…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Aitian Ma , Dongsheng Luo , Mo Sha

In high-stakes engineering applications, optimization algorithms must come with provable worst-case guarantees over a mathematically defined class of problems. Designing for the worst case, however, inevitably sacrifices performance on the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-04 Andrea Martin , Ian R. Manchester , Luca Furieri

Time series forecasting involves collecting and analyzing past observations to develop a model to extrapolate such observations into the future. Forecasting of future events is important in many fields to support decision making as it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-22 Igor Ilic , Berk Gorgulu , Mucahit Cevik , Mustafa Gokce Baydogan

In the area of physical simulations, nearly all neural-network-based methods directly predict future states from the input states. However, many traditional simulation engines instead model the constraints of the system and select the state…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-31 Yulia Rubanova , Alvaro Sanchez-Gonzalez , Tobias Pfaff , Peter Battaglia

Machine learning models can effectively forecast dynamical systems from time-series data, but they typically require large amounts of past data, making forecasting particularly challenging for systems with limited history. To overcome this,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-01 Declan A. Norton , Edward Ott , Andrew Pomerance , Brian Hunt , Michelle Girvan

Time series forecasting is a fundamental task emerging from diverse data-driven applications. Many advanced autoregressive methods such as ARIMA were used to develop forecasting models. Recently, deep learning based methods such as DeepAr,…

Selecting an appropriate look-back horizon remains a fundamental challenge in time series forecasting (TSF), particularly in the federated learning scenarios where data is decentralized, heterogeneous, and often non-independent. While…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Dahao Tang , Nan Yang , Yanli Li , Zhiyu Zhu , Zhibo Jin , Dong Yuan

We introduce a parallel machine scheduling problem in which the processing times of jobs are not given in advance but are determined by a system of linear constraints. The objective is to minimize the makespan, i.e., the maximum job…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2015-10-30 Kameng Nip , Zhenbo Wang , Zizhuo Wang

Time series forecasting plays a pivotal role in a wide range of applications, including weather prediction, healthcare, structural health monitoring, predictive maintenance, energy systems, and financial markets. While models such as LSTM,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Qianying Cao , Shanqing Liu , Alan John Varghese , Jerome Darbon , Michael Triantafyllou , George Em Karniadakis

Self-awareness is the key capability of autonomous systems, e.g., autonomous driving network, which relies on highly efficient time series forecasting algorithm to enable the system to reason about the future state of the environment, as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-18 Minh-Thanh Bui , Duc-Thinh Ngo , Demin Lu , Zonghua Zhang