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To quantify how well theoretical predictions of structural ensembles agree with experimental measurements, we depend on the accuracy of forward models. These models are computational frameworks that generate observable quantities from…

Biological Physics · Physics 2025-11-04 Robert M. Raddi , Tim Marshall , Vincent A. Voelz

Personalizing diffusion models using limited data presents significant challenges, including overfitting, loss of prior knowledge, and degradation of text alignment. Overfitting leads to shifts in the noise prediction distribution,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-07-04 JungWoo Chae , Jiyoon Kim , JaeWoong Choi , Kyungyul Kim , Sangheum Hwang

Recent progress in time-series forecasting has led to rapidly increasing architectural complexity, yet many reported State-of-the-Art gains are statistically fragile or misattributed. We argue that progress requires a shift from model…

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

Time series imputation is critical for many real-world applications and has been widely studied. However, existing models often require specialized designs tailored to specific missing patterns, variables, or domains which limits their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-03 Jinguo Cheng , Chunwei Yang , Wanlin Cai , Yuxuan Liang , Qingsong Wen , Yuankai Wu

We discuss Bayesian model uncertainty analysis and forecasting in sequential dynamic modeling of multivariate time series. The perspective is that of a decision-maker with a specific forecasting objective that guides thinking about relevant…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Isaac Lavine , Michael Lindon , Mike West

Deep learning models, in particular \textit{image} models, have recently gained generalisability and robustness. %are becoming more general and robust by the day. In this work, we propose to exploit such advances in the realm of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Tanay Agrawal , Abid Ali , Antitza Dantcheva , Francois Bremond

Meta-forecasting is a newly emerging field which combines meta-learning and time series forecasting. The goal of meta-forecasting is to train over a collection of source time series and generalize to new time series one-at-a-time. Previous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Mike Van Ness , Huibin Shen , Hao Wang , Xiaoyong Jin , Danielle C. Maddix , Karthick Gopalswamy

Domain shift, characterized by degraded model performance during transition from labeled source domains to unlabeled target domains, poses a persistent challenge for deploying deep learning systems. Current unsupervised domain adaptation…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-27 Zhitong Cheng , Yiran Jiang , Yulong Ge , Yufeng Li , Zhongheng Qin , Rongzhi Lin , Jianwei Ma

Deep Learning has been successfully applied to many application domains, yet its advantages have been slow to emerge for time series forecasting. For example, in the well-known Makridakis (M) Competitions, hybrids of traditional statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-26 John A. Miller , Mohammed Aldosari , Farah Saeed , Nasid Habib Barna , Subas Rana , I. Budak Arpinar , Ninghao Liu

The Transformer is a highly successful deep learning model that has revolutionised the world of artificial neural networks, first in natural language processing and later in computer vision. This model is based on the attention mechanism…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-09 Riccardo Ughi , Eugenio Lomurno , Matteo Matteucci

Global Forecasting Models (GFM) that are trained across a set of multiple time series have shown superior results in many forecasting competitions and real-world applications compared with univariate forecasting approaches. One aspect of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-16 Dilini Rajapaksha , Christoph Bergmeir , Rob J Hyndman

Advances in time-series forecasting are driving a shift from conventional machine learning models to foundation models (FMs) that are trained with generalized knowledge. However, existing FMs still perform poorly in the energy fields, such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Rui Liang , Yang Deng , Donghua Xie , Fang He , Dan Wang

Large language models (LLMs) have been introduced to time series forecasting (TSF) to incorporate contextual knowledge beyond numerical signals. However, existing studies question whether LLMs provide genuine benefits, often reporting…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Xin Qiu , Junlong Tong , Yirong Sun , Yunpu Ma , Wei Zhang , Xiaoyu Shen

In multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting, many deep learning based methods have been proposed for modeling dependencies at multiple spatial (inter-variate) or temporal (intra-variate) scales. However, existing methods may fail to model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Binqing Wu , Jianlong Huang , Zongjiang Shang , Ling Chen

Foundation models (FMs), that are trained on broad data at scale and are adaptable to a wide range of downstream tasks, have brought large interest in the research community. Benefiting from the diverse data sources such as different…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-02-06 Bo Li , Dongseong Hwang , Zhouyuan Huo , Junwen Bai , Guru Prakash , Tara N. Sainath , Khe Chai Sim , Yu Zhang , Wei Han , Trevor Strohman , Francoise Beaufays

Recurrent Neural Networks were, until recently, one of the best ways to capture the timely dependencies in sequences. However, with the introduction of the Transformer, it has been proven that an architecture with only attention-mechanisms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-19 Radostin Cholakov , Todor Kolev

This paper proposes a data-adaptive factor model (DAFM), a novel framework for extracting common factors that explain the structures of high-dimensional data. DAFM adopts a composite quantile strategy to adaptively capture the full…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-02 Seeun Park , Hee-Seok Oh

Multivariate time-series (MTS) forecasting is fundamental to applications ranging from urban mobility and resource management to climate modeling. While recent generative models based on denoising diffusion have advanced state-of-the-art…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-21 Seyed Mohamad Moghadas , Bruno Cornelis , Adrian Munteanu

Predicting transcriptional responses to novel drugs provides a unique opportunity to accelerate biomedical research and advance drug discovery efforts. However, the inherent complexity and high dimensionality of cellular responses, combined…