Related papers: Exact Bayesian inference for Markov switching diff…
Estimating model parameters of a general family of cure models is always a challenging task mainly due to flatness and multimodality of the likelihood function. In this work, we propose a fully Bayesian approach in order to overcome these…
We present a scalable approach to performing approximate fully Bayesian inference in generic state space models. The proposed method is an alternative to particle MCMC that provides fully Bayesian inference of both the dynamic latent states…
Bayesian nonparametric inferential procedures based on Markov chain Monte Carlo marginal methods typically yield point estimates in the form of posterior expectations. Though very useful and easy to implement in a variety of statistical…
Exact inference for hidden Markov models requires the evaluation of all distributions of interest - filtering, prediction, smoothing and likelihood - with a finite computational effort. This article provides sufficient conditions for exact…
We introduce a nonparametric model for inferring time-evolving, unobserved probability distributions from discrete-time data consisting of unlabelled partitions. The latent process is a two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet diffusion, and…
We present a Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for detecting hidden variables in a continuous time Bayesian network (CTBN), which uses reversible jumps in the sense defined by (Green 1995). In common with several…
We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…
Developing efficient MCMC algorithms is indispensable in Bayesian inference. In parallel tempering, multiple interacting MCMC chains run to more efficiently explore the state space and improve performance. The multiple chains advance…
We develop continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) approximation of one-dimensional diffusions with a lower sticky boundary. Approximate solutions to the action of the Feynman-Kac operator associated with a sticky diffusion and first passage…
Direct simulation of biomolecular dynamics in thermal equilibrium is challenging due to the metastable nature of conformation dynamics and the computational cost of molecular dynamics. Biased or enhanced sampling methods may improve the…
Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihoods, such as Markov random fields, poses a fundamental computational challenge due to the tradeoff between inferential accuracy and computational cost. Various MCMC methods have been…
In this paper, we focus on the statistical filtering problem in dynamical models with jumps. When a particular application relies on physical properties which are modeled by linear and Gaussian probability density functions with jumps, an…
We present a general framework for accelerating a large class of widely used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. Our approach exploits fast, iterative approximations to the target density to speculatively evaluate many potential…
This paper studies the asymptotic behavior of processes with switching. More precisely, the stability under fast switching for diffusion processes and discrete state space Markovian processes is considered. The proofs are based on…
In this paper, we study the asymptotic of exit problem for controlled Markov diffusion processes with random jumps and vanishing diffusion terms, where the random jumps are introduced in order to modify the evolution of the controlled…
A new methodology is presented for the construction of control variates to reduce the variance of additive functionals of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers. Our control variates are definedthrough the minimization of the asymptotic…
Existing deterministic variational inference approaches for diffusion processes use simple proposals and target the marginal density of the posterior. We construct the variational process as a controlled version of the prior process and…
In this short paper, we consider discrete-time Markov chains on lattices as approximations to continuous-time diffusion processes. The approximations can be interpreted as finite difference schemes for the generator of the process. We…
Markov jump processes (or continuous-time Markov chains) are a simple and important class of continuous-time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of simulating from the posterior distribution over paths in these models,…
The first-passage time is a key concept in stochastic modeling, representing the time at which a process first reaches a specified threshold. In this work, we consider a jump-diffusion (JD) model with a time-dependent threshold, providing a…