Related papers: Exact Bayesian inference for Markov switching diff…
Statistical inference for discretely observed jump-diffusion processes is a complex problem which motivates new methodological challenges. Thus existing approaches invariably resort to time-discretisations which inevitably lead to…
Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…
We develop exact Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for discretely-sampled, directly and indirectly observed diffusions. The qualification "exact" refers to the fact that the invariant and limiting distribution of the Markov chains is the…
In this paper, we present a novel methodology to perform Bayesian inference for Cox processes in which the intensity function is driven by a diffusion process. The novelty lies in the fact that no discretization error is involved, despite…
In the context of nonparametric Bayesian estimation a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is devised and implemented to sample from the posterior distribution of the drift function of a continuously or discretely observed one-dimensional…
We present new methodologies for Bayesian inference on the rate parameters of a discretely observed continuous-time Markov jump processes with a countably infinite state space. The usual method of choice for inference, particle Markov chain…
Bayesian inference for nonlinear diffusions, observed at discrete times, is a challenging task that has prompted the development of a number of algorithms, mainly within the computational statistics community. We propose a new direction,…
In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…
We develop a Bayesian inference method for diffusions observed discretely and with noise, which is free of discretisation bias. Unlike existing unbiased inference methods, our method does not rely on exact simulation techniques. Instead,…
Switching dynamical systems are an expressive model class for the analysis of time-series data. As in many fields within the natural and engineering sciences, the systems under study typically evolve continuously in time, it is natural to…
In this paper we consider the numerical solutions for a class of jump diffusions with Markovian switching. After briefly reviewing necessary notions, a new jump-adapted efficient algorithm based on the Euler scheme is constructed for…
We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for bi-variate data observed in time but with observation times which occur non-synchronously. In particular, this occurs in a wide variety of applications in finance, such as high-frequency…
Diffusion models have achieved huge empirical success in data generation tasks. Recently, some efforts have been made to adapt the framework of diffusion models to discrete state space, providing a more natural approach for modeling…
We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for changepoints where the number and position of the changepoints are both unknown. In particular, we consider product partition models where it is possible to integrate out model parameters…
Continuous-time stochastic processes play an important role in the description of random phenomena, it is therefore of prime interest to study particular variables depending on their paths, like stopping time for example. One approach…
Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are an important class of time-series models, used to describe stochastic systems evolving in continuous time. Simulating paths from these processes, particularly after conditioning on noisy…
The velocity-jump model is a specific type of piecewise deterministic Markov process in which an individual's velocity is constant except at times that form the events of some point process. It represents an interpretable continuous-time…
Markov chains and diffusion processes are indispensable tools in machine learning and statistics that are used for inference, sampling, and modeling. With the growth of large-scale datasets, the computational cost associated with simulating…
Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…
Switching state-space models (SSSM) are a very popular class of time series models that have found many applications in statistics, econometrics and advanced signal processing. Bayesian inference for these models typically relies on Markov…