Related papers: Mortality simulations for insured and general popu…
The Health and Retirement Study is a longitudinal study of US adults enrolled at age 50 and older. We were interested in investigating the effect of a sudden large decline in wealth on the cognitive score of subjects. Our analysis was…
This paper presents a significant advancement in the estimation of the Composite Link Model within a penalized likelihood framework, specifically designed to address indirect observations of grouped count data. While the model is effective…
Accurate estimates of long-term risk probabilities and their gradients are critical for many stochastic safe control methods. However, computing such risk probabilities in real-time and in unseen or changing environments is challenging.…
The face is a rich source of information that can be utilized to infer a person's biological age, sex, phenotype, genetic defects, and health status. All of these factors are relevant for predicting an individual's remaining lifespan. In…
In-hospital mortality (IHM) prediction for ICU patients is critical for timely interventions and efficient resource allocation. While structured physiological data provides quantitative insights, clinical notes offer unstructured,…
This paper examines several computer algorithms designed to assess mortality and longevity risk.
In this work we provide a simple estimation procedure for a general frailty model for analysis of prospective correlated failure times. Rigorous large-sample theory for the proposed estimators of both the regression coefficient vector and…
A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple…
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is the single largest and most detailed scientific effort ever conducted to quantify levels and trends in health. This global health model to estimate mortality rates and…
We explore whether survival model performance in underrepresented high- and low-risk subgroups - regions of the prognostic spectrum where clinical decisions are most consequential - can be improved through targeted restructuring of the…
Most contemporary mortality models rely on extrapolating trends or past events. However, population dynamics will be significantly impacted by climate change, notably the influence of temperatures on mortality. In this paper, we introduce a…
Machine Learning permeates many industries, which brings new source of benefits for companies. However within the life insurance industry, Machine Learning is not widely used in practice as over the past years statistical models have shown…
This paper addresses the task of modeling severity losses using segmentation when the data distribution does not fall into the usual regression frameworks. This situation is not uncommon in lines of business such as third-party liability…
Recently, a marked Poisson process (MPP) model for life catastrophe risk was proposed in [6]. We provide a justification and further support for the model by considering more general Poisson point processes in the context of extreme value…
This article presents a new model for demographic simulation which can be used to forecast and estimate the number of people in pension funds (contributors and retirees) as well as workers in a public institution. Furthermore, the model…
The determination of the shapes of mortality curves, the estimation and projection of mortality patterns over time, and the investigation of differences in mortality patterns across different small underdeveloped populations have received…
Although traditional literature on mortality modeling has focused on single countries in isolation, recent contributions have progressively moved toward joint models for multiple countries. Besides favoring borrowing of information to…
We propose a versatile framework for survival analysis that combines advanced concepts from statistics with deep learning. The presented framework is based on piecewise exponential models and thereby supports various survival tasks, such as…
In this article, we use the illness-death model to present a mathematical framework for studying the compression of morbidity (COM) hypothesis. It turns out that questions about COM are completely determined by the transition rates in the…
We assessed the validity of one of the most frequently used methods to estimate cancer incidence, on the basis of cancer mortality data and the incidence-to-mortality ratio IMR, the IMR method. Using the previous 15 year cancer mortality…