Related papers: From random walks to epidemic spreading: Compartme…
Viruses constantly undergo mutations with genomic changes. The propagation of variants of viruses is an interesting problem. We perform numerical simulations of the microscopic epidemic model based on network theory for the spread of…
The long-term evolution of epidemic processes depends crucially on the structure of contact networks. As empirical evidence indicates that human populations exhibit strong community organization, we investigate here how such mesoscopic…
We review recent studies demonstrating a nonuniversal (continuously variable) survival exponent for history-dependent random walks, and analyze a new example, the hard movable partial reflector. These processes serve as a simplified models…
The structure of heterogeneous networks and human mobility patterns profoundly influence the spreading of endemic diseases. In small-scale communities, individuals engage in social interactions within confined environments, such as homes…
A multi-patch and multi-group modeling framework describing the dynamics of a class of diseases driven by the interactions between vectors and hosts structured by groups is formulated. Hosts' dispersal is modeled in terms of patch-residence…
Extrinsic environmental factors influence the distribution and population dynamics of many organisms, including insects that are of concern for human health and agriculture. This is particularly true for vector-borne infectious diseases,…
The primary tool for predicting infectious disease spread and intervention effectiveness is the mass action Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of Kermack and McKendrick. Its usefulness derives largely from its conceptual and mathematical…
We use a stochastic Markovian dynamics approach to describe the spreading of vector-transmitted diseases, like dengue, and the threshold of the disease. The coexistence space is composed by two structures representing the human and mosquito…
A malaria model is formulated which includes the enhanced attractiveness of infectious humans to mosquitoes, as result of host manipulation by malaria parasite, and the human behavior, represented by insecticide-treated bed nets usage. The…
Models of random walks are considered in which walkers are born at one location and die at all other locations with uniform death rate. Steady-state distributions of random walkers exhibit dimensionally dependent critical behavior as a…
We study numerically the variability of the outbreak of diseases on complex networks. We use a SI model to simulate the disease spreading at short times, in homogeneous and in scale-free networks. In both cases, we study the effect of…
This work presents a model combining the simplest communicable and non-communicable disease models. The latter is, by far, the leading cause of sickness and death in the World, and introduces basal heterogeneity in populations where…
We investigate how key epidemiological parameters shape both seasonal epidemics and the persistence of dengue transmission. Our findings confirm known mechanistic drivers of epidemic variability and introduce a ranking of parameter…
We study the following model of disease spread in a social network. At first, all individuals are either infected or healthy. Next, in discrete rounds, the disease spreads in the network from infected to healthy individuals such that a…
In this paper we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and vaccination coverage $v_c$…
Individual-based models of contagious processes are useful for predicting epidemic trajectories and informing intervention strategies. In such models, the incorporation of contact network information can capture the non-randomness and…
Univariate zero-inflated models are increasingly being used to account for excess zeros in spatio-temporal infectious disease counts. However, the multivariate case is challenging due to the need to account for correlations across space,…
This paper gives an introduction to rule-based modelling applied to topics in infectious diseases. Rule-based models generalise reaction-based models with reagents that have internal state and may be bound together to form complexes, as in…
Although traditional models of epidemic spreading focus on the number of infected, susceptible and recovered individuals, a lot of attention has been devoted to integrate epidemic models with population genetics. Here we develop an…
A key problem in modelling the evolution dynamics of infectious diseases is the mathematical representation of the mechanism of transmission of the contagion. Models with a finite number of subpopulations can be described via systems of…