Related papers: Discontinuous stochastic forcing in Greenland ice …
This paper reports observations of regional and global upper stratosphere temperature (UST) and surface temperature, as well as various climate drivers including greenhouse gases (GHGs), ozone, aerosols, solar variability, snow cover…
Recent work has provided ample evidence that nonlinear methods of time series analysis potentially allow for detecting periods of anomalous dynamics in paleoclimate proxy records that are otherwise hidden to classical statis- tical…
In this paper we perform a careful analysis of the forced PP04 model for climate change, in particular the behaviour of the ice-ages. This system models the transition from a glacial to an inter-glacial state through a sudden release of…
The glacial cycles are attributed to the climatic response of the orbital changes in the irradiance to the Earth. These changes in the forcing are to small to explain the observed climate variations as simple linear responses. Non-linear…
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, the extreme weather events triggering the variability in Arctic ice cover has drawn increasing attention. A non-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable L\'evy process is thought to be an appropriate…
Atmospheric blocking events drive persistent weather extremes in midlatitudes, but isolating the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) from chaotic internal atmospheric variability on these events remains a challenge. We address this…
The low-frequency variability of the $\delta^{18}$O recorded in ice cores (FK17 and TIR18) recently drilled at two different locations in Dronning Maud Land (Antarctica), is investigated using multi-taper spectral method and singular…
We analyze the stability of a low-order coupled sea ice and climate model and extract the essential physics governing the time scales of response as a function of greenhouse gas forcing. Under present climate conditions the stability is…
Under-ice blooms in the Arctic can develop rapidly under conditions where conventional early warning signals based on critical slowing down fail due to strong noise or limited observational records. We analyze noise-induced transitions in a…
The Earth is well-known to be, in the current astronomical configuration, in a regime where two asymptotic states can be realised. The warm state we live in is in competition with the ice-covered snowball state. The bistability exists as a…
We study the impact of applying stochastic forcing to the Ghil-Sellers energy balance climate model in the form of a fluctuating solar irradiance. Through numerical simulations, we explore the noise-induced transitions between the competing…
We study the seasonal changes in the thickness distribution of Arctic sea ice, $g(h)$, under climate forcing. Our analytical and numerical approach is based on a Fokker-Planck equation for $g(h)$ (Toppaladoddi \& Wettlaufer \emph{Phys. Rev.…
For a wide range of values of the incoming solar radiation, the Earth features at least two attracting states, which correspond to competing climates. The warm climate is analogous to the present one; the snowball climate features global…
Regional climate change in the $21^{st}$ century will result from the interplay between human-induced changes and internal climate variability. Competing effects from greenhouse gas warming and aerosol cooling have historically caused…
Understanding the interactions between ice sheets and global climate forcings over geological timescales is essential for projecting their future. Previous studies have highlighted the role of ice dynamics and climate interactions in…
All climate models project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the 21st century, but most models neglect increasing runoff from the Greenland ice sheet. Greenland meltwater is expected to exacerbate…
A set of idealized experiments are performed to analyze the competing effects of declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the opening of an ocean gateway, and varying orbital parameters. These forcing mechanisms, which influence the global…
The consistency across scales of a recently developed mathematical thermodynamic structure, between a continuous stochastic nonlinear dynamical system (diffusion process with Langevin or Fokker-Planck equations) and its emergent discrete,…
The Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis considers that greenhouse gas concentrations should have declined during the Holocene in absence of humankind activity, leading to glacial inception around the present. It partly relies on the fact that…
An abrupt climatic transition could be triggered by a single extreme event, an $\alpha$-stable non-Gaussian L\'evy noise is regarded as a type of noise to generate such extreme events. In contrast with the classic Gaussian noise, a…