English
Related papers

Related papers: Discontinuous stochastic forcing in Greenland ice …

200 papers

This paper reports observations of regional and global upper stratosphere temperature (UST) and surface temperature, as well as various climate drivers including greenhouse gases (GHGs), ozone, aerosols, solar variability, snow cover…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-01-09 Qing-Bin Lu

Recent work has provided ample evidence that nonlinear methods of time series analysis potentially allow for detecting periods of anomalous dynamics in paleoclimate proxy records that are otherwise hidden to classical statis- tical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2018-09-27 Jasper G. Franke , Reik V. Donner

In this paper we perform a careful analysis of the forced PP04 model for climate change, in particular the behaviour of the ice-ages. This system models the transition from a glacial to an inter-glacial state through a sudden release of…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2020-05-19 Kgomotso S. Morupisi , Chris J. Budd

The glacial cycles are attributed to the climatic response of the orbital changes in the irradiance to the Earth. These changes in the forcing are to small to explain the observed climate variations as simple linear responses. Non-linear…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-02-11 Peter D. Ditlevsen

In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, the extreme weather events triggering the variability in Arctic ice cover has drawn increasing attention. A non-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable L\'evy process is thought to be an appropriate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-07-15 Fang Yang , Yayun Zheng , Jinqiao Duan , Ling Fu , Stephen Wiggins

Atmospheric blocking events drive persistent weather extremes in midlatitudes, but isolating the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) from chaotic internal atmospheric variability on these events remains a challenge. We address this…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-02-06 Zilu Meng , Gregory J. Hakim , Wenchang Yang , Gabriel A. Vecchi

The low-frequency variability of the $\delta^{18}$O recorded in ice cores (FK17 and TIR18) recently drilled at two different locations in Dronning Maud Land (Antarctica), is investigated using multi-taper spectral method and singular…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-05-07 Stéphane Vannitsem , David Docquier , Sarah Wauthy , Matthew Corkill , Jean-Louis Tison

We analyze the stability of a low-order coupled sea ice and climate model and extract the essential physics governing the time scales of response as a function of greenhouse gas forcing. Under present climate conditions the stability is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2011-10-13 W. Moon , J. S. Wettlaufer

Under-ice blooms in the Arctic can develop rapidly under conditions where conventional early warning signals based on critical slowing down fail due to strong noise or limited observational records. We analyze noise-induced transitions in a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Yuzhu Shi , Larissa Serdukova , Yayun Zheng , Sergei Petrovskii , Valerio Lucarini

The Earth is well-known to be, in the current astronomical configuration, in a regime where two asymptotic states can be realised. The warm state we live in is in competition with the ice-covered snowball state. The bistability exists as a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-04-24 Valerio Lucarini , Tamas Bodai

We study the impact of applying stochastic forcing to the Ghil-Sellers energy balance climate model in the form of a fluctuating solar irradiance. Through numerical simulations, we explore the noise-induced transitions between the competing…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-05-23 Valerio Lucarini , Larissa Serdukova , Georgios Margazoglou

We study the seasonal changes in the thickness distribution of Arctic sea ice, $g(h)$, under climate forcing. Our analytical and numerical approach is based on a Fokker-Planck equation for $g(h)$ (Toppaladoddi \& Wettlaufer \emph{Phys. Rev.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-12-26 Srikanth Toppaladoddi , John S. Wettlaufer

For a wide range of values of the incoming solar radiation, the Earth features at least two attracting states, which correspond to competing climates. The warm climate is analogous to the present one; the snowball climate features global…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-08-26 Valerio Lucarini , Tamas Bodai

Regional climate change in the $21^{st}$ century will result from the interplay between human-induced changes and internal climate variability. Competing effects from greenhouse gas warming and aerosol cooling have historically caused…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-02 Raphaël Hébert , Thomas Laepple

Understanding the interactions between ice sheets and global climate forcings over geological timescales is essential for projecting their future. Previous studies have highlighted the role of ice dynamics and climate interactions in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-31 Pijush Patra , Ludovico T. Giorgini , J. S. Wettlaufer

All climate models project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the 21st century, but most models neglect increasing runoff from the Greenland ice sheet. Greenland meltwater is expected to exacerbate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-30 Oliver Mehling , Katinka Bellomo , Federico Fabiano , Marion Devilliers , Michele Petrini , Susanna Corti , Jost von Hardenberg

A set of idealized experiments are performed to analyze the competing effects of declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the opening of an ocean gateway, and varying orbital parameters. These forcing mechanisms, which influence the global…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-02-04 Eileen Hertwig , Frank Lunkeit , Klaus Fraedrich

The consistency across scales of a recently developed mathematical thermodynamic structure, between a continuous stochastic nonlinear dynamical system (diffusion process with Langevin or Fokker-Planck equations) and its emergent discrete,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-10-28 Moises Santillan , Hong Qian

The Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis considers that greenhouse gas concentrations should have declined during the Holocene in absence of humankind activity, leading to glacial inception around the present. It partly relies on the fact that…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2011-12-15 Michel Crucifix

An abrupt climatic transition could be triggered by a single extreme event, an $\alpha$-stable non-Gaussian L\'evy noise is regarded as a type of noise to generate such extreme events. In contrast with the classic Gaussian noise, a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-09-20 Yayun Zheng , Fang Yang , Jinqiao Duan , Xu Sun , Ling Fu , Jürgen Kurths