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Bidirectional causal relationships arising from mutual interactions between variables are commonly observed within biomedical, econometrical, and social science contexts. When such relationships are further complicated by unobserved…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Yafang Deng , Kang Shuai , Shanshan Luo

Explaining artificial intelligence or machine learning models is increasingly important. To use such data-driven systems wisely we must understand how they interact with the world, including how they depend causally on data inputs. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Joshua R. Loftus , Lucius E. J. Bynum , Sakina Hansen

In causal models, a given mechanism is assumed to be invariant to changes of other mechanisms. While this principle has been utilized for inference in settings where the causal variables are observed, theoretical insights when the variables…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-07 Simon Bing , Jonas Wahl , Urmi Ninad , Jakob Runge

Causal models bring many benefits to decision-making systems (or agents) by making them interpretable, sample-efficient, and robust to changes in the input distribution. However, spurious correlations can lead to wrong causal models and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-09 Sergei Volodin , Nevan Wichers , Jeremy Nixon

Causal questions are omnipresent in many scientific problems. While much progress has been made in the analysis of causal relationships between random variables, these methods are not well suited if the causal mechanisms only manifest…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-23 Nicola Gnecco , Nicolai Meinshausen , Jonas Peters , Sebastian Engelke

The validity OF a causal model can be tested ONLY IF the model imposes constraints ON the probability distribution that governs the generated data. IN the presence OF unmeasured variables, causal models may impose two types OF constraints :…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Jin Tian , Judea Pearl

We consider the problem of causal discovery (a.k.a., causal structure learning) in a multi-domain setting. We assume that the causal functions are invariant across the domains, while the distribution of the exogenous noise may vary. Under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-01 Kasra Jalaldoust , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash

One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-03 Ricardo Silva , Robin Evans

The paper concerns the probabilistic evaluation of plans in the presence of unmeasured variables, each plan consisting of several concurrent or sequential actions. We establish a graphical criterion for recognizing when the effects of a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Judea Pearl , James M. Robins

This paper serves as a starting point for machine learning researchers, engineers and students who are interested in but not yet familiar with causal inference. We start by laying out an important set of assumptions that are collectively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Daniel Jiwoong Im , Kyunghyun Cho

This tutorial provides a concise introduction to modern causal modeling by integrating potential outcomes and graphical methods. We motivate causal questions such as counterfactual reasoning under interventions and define binary treatments…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-27 Gauranga Kumar Baishya

This study compares the performance of a causal and a predictive model in modeling travel mode choice in three neighborhoods in Chicago. A causal discovery algorithm and a causal inference technique were used to extract the causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-31 Rishabh Singh Chauhan , Uttara Sutradhar , Anton Rozhkov , Sybil Derrible

Not every causal relation between variables is equal, and this can be leveraged for the task of causal discovery. Recent research shows that pairs of variables with particular type assignments induce a preference on the causal direction of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Florian Peter Busch , Moritz Willig , Florian Guldan , Kristian Kersting , Devendra Singh Dhami

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Christopher Stith , Medha Barath , Vahid Balazadeh , Jesse C. Cresswell , Rahul G. Krishnan

A probabilistic model describes a system in its observational state. In many situations, however, we are interested in the system's response under interventions. The class of structural causal models provides a language that allows us to…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-20 Jonas Peters , Stefan Bauer , Niklas Pfister

Inferring causal directions on discrete and categorical data is an important yet challenging problem. Even though the additive noise models (ANMs) approach can be adapted to the discrete data, the functional structure assumptions make it…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-02 Austin Goddard , Yu Xiang

Understanding causality helps to structure interventions to achieve specific goals and enables predictions under interventions. With the growing importance of learning causal relationships, causal discovery tasks have transitioned from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-15 Hang Chen , Keqing Du , Xinyu Yang , Chenguang Li

Graphical causal models are an important tool for knowledge discovery because they can represent both the causal relations between variables and the multivariate probability distributions over the data. Once learned, causal graphs can be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-04-11 Andrew J Sedgewick , Joseph D. Ramsey , Peter Spirtes , Clark Glymour , Panayiotis V. Benos

Inferring the causal direction between two variables from their observation data is one of the most fundamental and challenging topics in data science. A causal direction inference algorithm maps the observation data into a binary value…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-08 Yulai Zhang , Jiachen Wang , Gang Cen , Guiming Luo

The use of simulated data in the field of causal discovery is ubiquitous due to the scarcity of annotated real data. Recently, Reisach et al., 2021 highlighted the emergence of patterns in simulated linear data, which displays increasing…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-24 Francesco Montagna , Nicoletta Noceti , Lorenzo Rosasco , Francesco Locatello
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