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Conformal inference is a popular tool for constructing prediction intervals (PI). We consider here the scenario of post-selection/selective conformal inference, that is PIs are reported only for individuals selected from an unlabeled test…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-13 Yajie Bao , Yuyang Huo , Haojie Ren , Changliang Zou

Conformal Prediction (CP) controls the prediction uncertainty of classification systems by producing a small prediction set, ensuring a predetermined probability that the true class lies within this set. This is commonly done by defining a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-14 Coby Penso , Jacob Goldberger , Ethan Fetaya

We investigate the integration of Conformal Prediction (CP) with supervised learning on deterministically encrypted data, aiming to bridge the gap between rigorous uncertainty quantification and privacy-preserving machine learning. Using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Alexander David Balinsky , Dominik Krzeminski , Alexander Balinsky

Surrogate models (including deep neural networks and other machine learning algorithms in supervised learning) are capable of approximating arbitrarily complex, high-dimensional input-output problems in science and engineering, but require…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Miguel Sánchez-Domínguez , Lucas Lacasa , Javier de Vicente , Gonzalo Rubio , Eusebio Valero

Machine-learning techniques are essential in modern collider research, yet their probabilistic outputs often lack calibrated uncertainty estimates and finite-sample guarantees, limiting their direct use in statistical inference and…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-12-22 Jack Y. Araz , Michael Spannowsky

Designing provably safe control is a core problem in trustworthy autonomy. However, most prior work in this regard assumes either that the system dynamics are known or deterministic, or that the state and action space are finite,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Xinhang Ma , Junlin Wu , Yiannis Kantaros , Yevgeniy Vorobeychik

Conformal prediction (CP) has attracted broad attention as a simple and flexible framework for uncertainty quantification through prediction sets. In this work, we study how to deploy CP under differential privacy (DP) in a statistically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-21 Jiamei Wu , Ce Zhang , Zhipeng Cai , Jingsen Kong , Bei Jiang , Linglong Kong , Lingchen Kong

Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on data exchangeability, a condition often…

We propose the conditional predictive impact (CPI), a consistent and unbiased estimator of the association between one or several features and a given outcome, conditional on a reduced feature set. Building on the knockoff framework of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-14 David S. Watson , Marvin N. Wright

Conformal Prediction is a framework that produces prediction intervals based on the output from a machine learning algorithm. In this paper we explore the case when training data is made up of multiple parts available in different sources…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-16 Ola Spjuth , Robin Carrión Brännström , Lars Carlsson , Niharika Gauraha

Conformal prediction (CP) converts any model's output to prediction sets with a guarantee to cover the true label with (adjustable) high probability. Robust CP extends this guarantee to worst-case (adversarial) inputs. Existing baselines…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Autonomous systems operate in environments that may change over time. An example is the control of a self-driving vehicle among pedestrians and human-controlled vehicles whose behavior may change based on factors such as traffic density,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-16 Kaizer Rahaman , Jyotirmoy V. Deshmukh , Ashish R. Hota , Lars Lindemann

Rigorous uncertainty quantification is essential for the safe deployment of autonomous systems in unconstrained environments. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free framework for this task, yet its standard formulations rely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Renukanandan Tumu , Aditya Singh , Rahul Mangharam

Conformal prediction (CP) quantifies the uncertainty of machine learning models by constructing sets of plausible outputs. These sets are constructed by leveraging a so-called conformity score, a quantity computed using the input point of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-07 Michal Klein , Louis Bethune , Eugene Ndiaye , Marco Cuturi

We propose a framework for planning in unknown dynamic environments with probabilistic safety guarantees using conformal prediction. Particularly, we design a model predictive controller (MPC) that uses i) trajectory predictions of the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-06-09 Lars Lindemann , Matthew Cleaveland , Gihyun Shim , George J. Pappas

We propose a stochastic model predictive control (MPC) framework for linear systems subject to joint-in-time chance constraints under unknown disturbance distributions. Unlike existing approaches that rely on parametric or Gaussian…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-21 Lukas Vogel , Andrea Carron , Eleftherios E. Vlahakis , Dimos V. Dimarogonas

We introduce a framework for robust uncertainty quantification in situations where labeled training data are corrupted, through noisy or missing labels. We build on conformal prediction, a statistical tool for generating prediction sets…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Shai Feldman , Stephen Bates , Yaniv Romano

We introduce Neural Conditional Probability (NCP), an operator-theoretic approach to learning conditional distributions with a focus on statistical inference tasks. NCP can be used to build conditional confidence regions and extract key…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Vladimir R. Kostic , Karim Lounici , Gregoire Pacreau , Pietro Novelli , Giacomo Turri , Massimiliano Pontil

Continual Learning (CL) is essential for enabling self-evolving large language models (LLMs) to adapt and remain effective amid rapid knowledge growth. Yet, despite its importance, little attention has been given to establishing statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Xiaofan Zhou , Lu Cheng

Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Nikolaos Bousias , Lars Lindemann , George Pappas