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Related papers: Amortized In-Context Bayesian Posterior Estimation

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In the social sciences we are often interested in comparing models specified by parametric equality or inequality constraints. For instance, when examining three group means $\{ \mu_1, \mu_2, \mu_3\}$ through an analysis of variance…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-08 Guido Consonni , Roberta Paroli

Parametric stochastic simulators are ubiquitous in science, often featuring high-dimensional input parameters and/or an intractable likelihood. Performing Bayesian parameter inference in this context can be challenging. We present a neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-27 Benjamin Kurt Miller , Alex Cole , Patrick Forré , Gilles Louppe , Christoph Weniger

Maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation, like all Bayesian methods, depends on prior assumptions. These assumptions are often chosen to promote specific features in the recovered estimate. The form of the chosen prior determines the shape of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-15 Zilai Si , Yucong Liu , Alexander Strang

Variational inference techniques based on inducing variables provide an elegant framework for scalable posterior estimation in Gaussian process (GP) models. Besides enabling scalability, one of their main advantages over sparse…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-24 Simone Rossi , Markus Heinonen , Edwin V. Bonilla , Zheyang Shen , Maurizio Filippone

A simulation is useful when the phenomenon of interest is either expensive to regenerate or irreproducible with the same context. Recently, Bayesian inference on the distribution of the simulation input parameter has been implemented…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-07 Dongjun Kim , Kyungwoo Song , Seungjae Shin , Wanmo Kang , Il-Chul Moon , Weonyoung Joo

The proliferation of automated inference algorithms in Bayesian statistics has provided practitioners newfound access to fast, reproducible data analysis and powerful statistical models. Designing automated methods that are also both…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Trevor Campbell , Boyan Beronov

Machine learning methods for computational imaging require uncertainty estimation to be reliable in real settings. While Bayesian models offer a computationally tractable way of recovering uncertainty, they need large data volumes to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-24 Francesco Tonolini , Jack Radford , Alex Turpin , Daniele Faccio , Roderick Murray-Smith

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

A reciprocal LASSO (rLASSO) regularization employs a decreasing penalty function as opposed to conventional penalization approaches that use increasing penalties on the coefficients, leading to stronger parsimony and superior model…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-17 Himel Mallick , Rahim Alhamzawi , Erina Paul , Vladimir Svetnik

We develop a Bayesian spatio-temporal framework for extreme-value analysis that augments a hierarchical copula model with an autoregressive factor to capture residual temporal dependence in threshold exceedances. The factor can be specified…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-06 Carlos A. Pasquier , Luis A. Barboza

To address the common problem of high dimensionality in tensor regressions, we introduce a generalized tensor random projection method that embeds high-dimensional tensor-valued covariates into low-dimensional subspaces with minimal loss of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-03 Roberto Casarin , Radu Craiu , Qing Wang

We formulate, and present a numerical method for solving, an inverse problem for inferring parameters of a deterministic model from stochastic observational data (quantities of interest). The solution, given as a probability measure, is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-05-04 T. Butler , J. D. Jakeman , T. Wildey

We propose Amortized Posterior Sampling (APS), a novel variational inference approach for efficient posterior sampling in inverse problems. Our method trains a conditional flow model to minimize the divergence between the variational…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-07-14 Abbas Mammadov , Hyungjin Chung , Jong Chul Ye

Bayesian optimisation is a powerful tool to solve expensive black-box problems, but fails when the stationary assumption made on the objective function is strongly violated, which is the case in particular for ill-conditioned or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-06 Victor Picheny , Sattar Vakili , Artem Artemev

Bayesian models often involve a small set of hyperparameters determined by maximizing the marginal likelihood. Bayesian optimization is a popular iterative method where a Gaussian process posterior of the underlying function is sequentially…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-18 Oskar Gustafsson , Mattias Villani , Pär Stockhammar

Bayesian inference promises to ground and improve the performance of deep neural networks. It promises to be robust to overfitting, to simplify the training procedure and the space of hyperparameters, and to provide a calibrated measure of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-12 Jonathan Heek , Nal Kalchbrenner

The Bayesian approach to inverse problems is widely used in practice to infer unknown parameters from noisy observations. In this framework, the ensemble Kalman inversion has been successfully applied for the quantification of uncertainties…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-10-15 Neil K. Chada , Claudia Schillings , Simon Weissmann

State-of-the-art multi-objective optimization often assumes a known utility function, learns it interactively, or computes the full Pareto front-each requiring costly expert input.~Real-world problems, however, involve implicit preferences…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Farha A. Khan , Tanmay Chakraborty , Jörg P. Dietrich , Christian Wirth

Amortized analysis is a cost analysis technique for data structures in which cost is studied in aggregate: rather than considering the maximum cost of a single operation, one bounds the total cost encountered throughout a session.…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Harrison Grodin , Robert Harper

Bayesian statistics has gained popularity in psychological research due to its intuitive uncertainty quantification and convenient information-updating rules. In many applications, however, prior distributions are introduced merely as…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Yang Liu , Jonathan P. Williams , Jan Hannig