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Large Language Models (LLMs) that can express interpretable and calibrated uncertainty are crucial in high-stakes domains. While methods to compute uncertainty post-hoc exist, they are often sampling-based and therefore computationally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Azza Jenane , Nassim Walha , Lukas Kuhn , Florian Buettner

Entity Linking (EL), the task of mapping textual entity mentions to their corresponding entries in knowledge bases, constitutes a fundamental component of natural language understanding. Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs)…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-19 Jiajun Hou , Chenyu Zhang , Rui Meng

The primary goal of training in early convolutional neural networks (CNN) is the higher generalization performance of the model. However, as the expected calibration error (ECE), which quantifies the explanatory power of model inference,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-02-01 Seungbum Hong , Jihun Yoon , Bogyu Park , Min-Kook Choi

When adapting ICL with or without fine-tuning, we are curious about whether the instruction-tuned language model is able to achieve well-calibrated results without suffering from the problem of overconfidence (i.e., miscalibration)…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Chengzu Li , Han Zhou , Goran Glavaš , Anna Korhonen , Ivan Vulić

Accurate quantification of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties is essential when deploying Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) in high-stakes applications such as drug discovery and financial fraud detection, where reliable predictions are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Linlin Yu , Kangshuo Li , Pritom Kumar Saha , Yifei Lou , Feng Chen

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable self-improvement capabilities, whereby models iteratively revise their outputs through self-generated feedback. While this reflective mechanism has shown promise in enhancing task…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Liangjie Huang , Dawei Li , Huan Liu , Lu Cheng

Bayesian deep learning (BDL) is a promising approach to achieve well-calibrated predictions on distribution-shifted data. Nevertheless, there exists no large-scale survey that evaluates recent SOTA methods on diverse, realistic, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Florian Seligmann , Philipp Becker , Michael Volpp , Gerhard Neumann

Accurately quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is crucial for their reliable deployment, especially in high-stakes applications. Current state-of-the-art methods for measuring semantic uncertainty in LLMs rely on strict…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Yashvir S. Grewal , Edwin V. Bonilla , Thang D. Bui

As large language models (LLMs) are trained on massive datasets, they have raised significant privacy and ethical concerns due to their potential to inadvertently retain sensitive information. Unlearning seeks to selectively remove specific…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Philipp Spohn , Leander Girrbach , Jessica Bader , Zeynep Akata

Information bottleneck is an information-theoretic principle of representation learning that aims to learn a maximally compressed representation that preserves as much information about labels as possible. Under this principle, two…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2023-11-08 Yuyan Ni , Yanyan Lan , Ao Liu , Zhiming Ma

Explaining the black-box predictions of NLP models naturally and accurately is an important open problem in natural language generation. These free-text explanations are expected to contain sufficient and carefully-selected evidence to form…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-07-12 Qintong Li , Zhiyong Wu , Lingpeng Kong , Wei Bi

While deep neural networks have become the go-to approach in computer vision, the vast majority of these models fail to properly capture the uncertainty inherent in their predictions. Estimating this predictive uncertainty can be crucial,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-08 Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Martin Danelljan , Thomas B. Schön

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized the field of natural language processing with their impressive reasoning and question-answering capabilities. However, these models are sometimes prone to generating credible-sounding but…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Ranganath Krishnan , Piyush Khanna , Omesh Tickoo

How can we precisely estimate a large language model's (LLM) accuracy on questions belonging to a specific topic within a larger question-answering dataset? The standard direct estimator, which averages the model's accuracy on the questions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-08 Riccardo Fogliato , Pratik Patil , Nil-Jana Akpinar , Mathew Monfort

Accurate probabilistic predictions can be characterized by two properties -- calibration and sharpness. However, standard maximum likelihood training yields models that are poorly calibrated and thus inaccurate -- a 90% confidence interval…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-14 Volodymyr Kuleshov , Shachi Deshpande

Reliable radar pulse classification is essential in Electromagnetic Warfare for situational awareness and decision support. Deep Neural Networks have shown strong performance in radar pulse and RF emitter recognition; however, on their own…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-09 Mohamed Rabie , Chinthana Panagamuwa , Konstantinos G. Kyriakopoulos

Large Language Models (LLMs) often exhibit misalignment between the quality of their generated responses and the confidence estimates they assign to them. Bayesian treatments, such as marginalizing over a reliable weight posterior or over…

We investigate the calibration of large language models' (LLMs') confidence across diverse tasks. The results of our preregistered study show that the current crop of LLMs are, like people, too sure they are right: confidence exceeds…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Noam Michael , Daniel BenShushan , Jacob Bien , Don A. Moore

Neural network classifiers trained with cross-entropy loss achieve strong predictive accuracy but lack the capability to provide inherent predictive uncertainty estimates, thus requiring external techniques to obtain these estimates. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-08 Courtney Franzen , Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki

Over recent years, there has been a rapid development of deep learning (DL) in both industry and academia fields. However, finding the optimal hyperparameters of a DL model often needs high computational cost and human expertise. To…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2022-08-24 Nan Li , Lianbo Ma , Guo Yu , Bing Xue , Mengjie Zhang , Yaochu Jin