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A directed acyclic graph (DAG) provides valuable prior knowledge that is often discarded in regression tasks in machine learning. We show that the independences arising from the presence of collider structures in DAGs provide meaningful…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-22 Shahine Bouabid , Jake Fawkes , Dino Sejdinovic

Learning the unique directed acyclic graph corresponding to an unknown causal model is a challenging task. Methods based on functional causal models can identify a unique graph, but either suffer from the curse of dimensionality or impose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Sujai Hiremath , Jacqueline R. M. A. Maasch , Mengxiao Gao , Promit Ghosal , Kyra Gan

Causal inference is a critical task across fields such as healthcare, economics, and the social sciences. While recent advances in machine learning, especially those based on the deep-learning architectures, have shown potential in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-30 Manqing Liu , David R. Bellamy , Andrew L. Beam

A structural equation model (SEM) is an effective framework to reason over causal relationships represented via a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Recent advances have enabled effective maximum-likelihood point estimation of DAGs from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Chris Cundy , Aditya Grover , Stefano Ermon

Assessing the accuracy of the output of causal discovery algorithms is crucial in developing and comparing novel methods. Common evaluation metrics such as the structural Hamming distance are useful for assessing individual links of causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-07 Jonas Wahl , Jakob Runge

Counterfactual learning has become promising for understanding and modeling causality in complex and dynamic systems. This paper presents a novel method for counterfactual learning in the context of multivariate time series analysis and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Gianlucca Zuin , Adriano Veloso

The causal relationships among a set of random variables are commonly represented by a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG), where there is a directed edge from variable $X$ to variable $Y$ if $X$ is a direct cause of $Y$. From the purely…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-18 Ali AhmadiTeshnizi , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash

Causal discovery from time series is critical for many real-world applications, such as tracing the root causes of anomalies. Existing approaches typically rely on dataset-specific optimization, making it difficult to transfer their causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Biao Ouyang , Tengxue Zhang , Zhihao Zhuang , Yang Shu , Chenjuan Guo , Bin Yang

Knowledge is inherently time-sensitive and continuously evolves over time. Although current Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems enrich LLMs with external knowledge, they largely ignore this temporal nature. This raises two…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-10-16 Jiale Han , Austin Cheung , Yubai Wei , Zheng Yu , Xusheng Wang , Bing Zhu , Yi Yang

We present a hybrid constraint-based/Bayesian algorithm for learning causal networks in the presence of sparse data. The algorithm searches the space of equivalence classes of models (essential graphs) using a heuristic based on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Denver Dash , Marek J. Druzdzel

Causal modeling has long been an attractive topic for many researchers and in recent decades there has seen a surge in theoretical development and discovery algorithms. Generally discovery algorithms can be divided into two approaches:…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-06 Ridho Rahmadi , Perry Groot , Marianne Heins , Hans Knoop , Tom Heskes

Unobserved confounding is one of the greatest challenges for causal discovery. The case in which unobserved variables have a widespread effect on many of the observed ones is particularly difficult because most pairs of variables are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-26 Alexis Bellot , Mihaela van der Schaar

Knowledge graph embedding (KGE) focuses on representing the entities and relations of a knowledge graph (KG) into the continuous vector spaces, which can be employed to predict the missing triples to achieve knowledge graph completion…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-07-25 Yichi Zhang , Wen Zhang

Evaluating graphs learned by causal discovery algorithms is difficult: The number of edges that differ between two graphs does not reflect how the graphs differ with respect to the identifying formulas they suggest for causal effects. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-12 Leonard Henckel , Theo Würtzen , Sebastian Weichwald

A Temporal Knowledge Graph (TKG) is a sequence of KGs with respective timestamps, which adopts quadruples in the form of (\emph{subject}, \emph{relation}, \emph{object}, \emph{timestamp}) to describe dynamic facts. TKG reasoning has…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-10-19 Zixuan Li , Zhongni Hou , Saiping Guan , Xiaolong Jin , Weihua Peng , Long Bai , Yajuan Lyu , Wei Li , Jiafeng Guo , Xueqi Cheng

Causal inference methods for observational data are increasingly recognized as a valuable complement to randomized clinical trials (RCTs). They can, under strong assumptions, emulate RCTs or help refine their focus. Our approach to causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-14 Carlo Berzuini , Davide Luciani , Hiren C. Patel

Faced with data-driven policies, individuals will manipulate their features to obtain favorable decisions. While earlier works cast these manipulations as undesirable gaming, recent works have adopted a more nuanced causal framing in which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Tom Yan , Shantanu Gupta , Zachary Lipton

Multivariate time series (MTS) data such as time course gene expression data in genomics are often collected to study the dynamic nature of the systems. These data provide important information about the causal dependency among a set of…

Applications · Statistics 2013-12-03 Wanlu Deng , Zhi Geng , Hongzhe Li

Knowledge graphs and structural causal models have each proven valuable for organizing biomedical knowledge and estimating causal effects, but remain largely disconnected: knowledge graphs encode qualitative relationships focusing on facts…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Sumyyah Toonsi , Paul Schofield , Robert Hoehndorf

Causal discovery algorithms based on probabilistic graphical models have emerged in geoscience applications for the identification and visualization of dynamical processes. The key idea is to learn the structure of a graphical model from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-12-29 Imme Ebert-Uphoff , Yi Deng