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Accurate epidemic forecasting is crucial for effective disease control and prevention. Traditional compartmental models often struggle to estimate temporally and spatially varying epidemiological parameters, while deep learning models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Shuai Han , Lukas Stelz , Thomas R. Sokolowski , Kai Zhou , Horst Stöcker

Causal inference in spatial domains faces two intertwined challenges: (1) unmeasured spatial factors, such as weather, air pollution, or mobility, that confound treatment and outcome, and (2) interference from nearby treatments that violate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Ayush Khot , Miruna Oprescu , Maresa Schröder , Ai Kagawa , Xihaier Luo

Spatiotemporal prediction plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications such as urban planning, transportation optimization, disaster response, and pandemic control. In recent years, researchers have made significant progress by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Dahai Yu , Dingyi Zhuang , Lin Jiang , Rongchao Xu , Xinyue Ye , Yuheng Bu , Shenhao Wang , Guang Wang

Short-term demand forecasting models commonly combine convolutional and recurrent layers to extract complex spatiotemporal patterns in data. Long-term histories are also used to consider periodicity and seasonality patterns as time series…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-15 Doyup Lee , Suehun Jung , Yeongjae Cheon , Dongil Kim , Seungil You

Sparse meteorological forecasting is indispensable for fine-grained weather forecasting and deserves extensive attention. Recent studies have highlighted the potential of spatio-temporal graph convolutional networks (ST-GCNs) in predicting…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-26 Yutong Xiong , Xun Zhu , Ming Wu , Weiqing Li , Fanbin Mo , Chuang Zhang , Bin Zhang

As the role played by statistical and computational sciences in climate and environmental modelling and prediction becomes more important, Machine Learning researchers are becoming more aware of the relevance of their work to help tackle…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-23 Federico Amato , Fabian Guignard , Sylvain Robert , Mikhail Kanevski

Unmeasured confounding can severely bias causal effect estimates from spatiotemporal observational data, especially when the confounders do not vary smoothly in time and space. In this work, we develop a method for addressing unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-29 Jiaxi Wu , Alexander Franks

Although understanding and characterizing causal effects have become essential in observational studies, it is challenging when the confounders are high-dimensional. In this article, we develop a general framework $\textit{CausalEGM}$ for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-20 Qiao Liu , Zhongren Chen , Wing Hung Wong

Traffic speed prediction is significant for intelligent navigation and congestion alleviation. However, making accurate predictions is challenging due to three factors: 1) traffic diffusion, i.e., the spatial and temporal causality existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-23 Yi Rong , Yingchi Mao , Yinqiu Liu , Ling Chen , Xiaoming He , Dusit Niyato

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have advanced spatiotemporal forecasting by leveraging relational inductive biases among sensors (or any other measuring scheme) represented as nodes in a graph. However, current methods often rely on Recurrent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-30 Aref Einizade , Fragkiskos D. Malliaros , Jhony H. Giraldo

Spatiotemporal forecasting plays an essential role in various applications in intelligent transportation systems (ITS), such as route planning, navigation, and traffic control and management. Deep Spatiotemporal graph neural networks…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-13 Fuqiang Liu , Luis Miranda-Moreno , Lijun Sun

We address the problem of estimating causal effects from observational data in the presence of network confounding, a setting where both treatment assignment and observed outcomes of individuals may be influenced by their neighbors within a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Abhishek Dalvi , Neil Ashtekar , Vasant Honavar

Causal inference from observational data following the restricted structural causal model (SCM) framework hinges largely on the asymmetry between cause and effect from the data generating mechanisms, such as non-Gaussianity or nonlinearity.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-06 Kang Du , Yu Xiang

Spatiotemporal predictive learning aims to forecast future frames from historical observations in an unsupervised manner, and is critical to a wide range of applications. The key challenge is to model long-range dynamics while preserving…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Xinyong Cai , Runming Xie , Hu Chen , Yuankai Wu

Social scientists now routinely draw on high-frequency, high-granularity ''microlevel'' data to estimate the causal effects of subnational interventions. To date, most researchers aggregate these data into panels, often tied to large-scale…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-07 Mitsuru Mukaigawara , Kosuke Imai , Jason Lyall , Georgia Papadogeorgou

Treatment effects in a wide range of economic, environmental, and epidemiological applications often vary across space, and understanding the heterogeneity of causal effects across space and outcome quantiles is a critical challenge in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Yan Gong , Reetam Majumder , Brian J. Reich , Raphaël Huser

Causal inference from observational data following the restricted structural causal models (SCM) framework hinges largely on the asymmetry between cause and effect from the data generating mechanisms, such as non-Gaussianity or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-30 Kang Du , Yu Xiang

With an ever-increasing number of sensors in modern society, spatio-temporal time series forecasting has become a de facto tool to make informed decisions about the future. Most spatio-temporal forecasting models typically comprise distinct…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-24 Lars Ødegaard Bentsen , Narada Dilp Warakagoda , Roy Stenbro , Paal Engelstad

Purpose: This paper aims to enhance bearing fault diagnosis in industrial machinery by introducing a novel method that combines Graph Attention Network (GAT) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. This approach captures both spatial…

Human mobility traces, often recorded as sequences of check-ins, provide a unique window into both short-term visiting patterns and persistent lifestyle regularities. In this work we introduce GSTM-HMU, a generative spatio-temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Wenying Luo , Zhiyuan Lin , Wenhao Xu , Minghao Liu , Zhi Li