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We reconsider a nonparametric density model based on Gaussian processes. By augmenting the model with latent P\'olya--Gamma random variables and a latent marked Poisson process we obtain a new likelihood which is conjugate to the model's…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-30 Christian Donner , Manfred Opper

A common method for assessing validity of Bayesian sampling or approximate inference methods makes use of simulated data replicates for parameters drawn from the prior. Under continuity assumptions, quantiles of functions of the simulated…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-21 Xuejun Yu , David J. Nott , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Nadja Klein

Bayesian nonparametric mixture models are common for modeling complex data. While these models are well-suited for density estimation, recent results proved posterior inconsistency of the number of clusters when the true number of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-31 Louise Alamichel , Daria Bystrova , Julyan Arbel , Guillaume Kon Kam King

Gibbs samplers are popular algorithms to approximate posterior distributions arising from Bayesian hierarchical models. Despite their popularity and good empirical performances, however, there are still relatively few quantitative results…

Computation · Statistics 2023-10-31 Filippo Ascolani , Giacomo Zanella

Bayesian inference is useful to obtain a predictive distribution with a small generalization error. However, since posterior distributions are rarely evaluated analytically, we employ the variational Bayesian inference or sampling method to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Yohei Saito , Shun Kimura , Koujin Takeda

Pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings (pmMH) is a powerful method for Bayesian inference in models where the posterior distribution is analytical intractable or computationally costly to evaluate directly. It operates by introducing…

Computation · Statistics 2016-08-06 Johan Dahlin , Fredrik Lindsten , Joel Kronander , Thomas B. Schön

Bayesian feature allocation models are a popular tool for modelling data with a combinatorial latent structure. Exact inference in these models is generally intractable and so practitioners typically apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Computation · Statistics 2020-01-28 Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Andrew Roth

In this paper we propose to numerically assess the performance of standard Gaussian approximations to probe the posterior distribution that arises from Bayesian data assimilation in petroleum reservoirs. In particular we assess the…

Applications · Statistics 2012-12-11 Marco A. Iglesias , Kody J. H. Law , Andrew M. Stuart

Achieving robust uncertainty quantification for deep neural networks represents an important requirement in many real-world applications of deep learning such as medical imaging where it is necessary to assess the reliability of a neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Tim Rensmeyer , Oliver Niggemann

Model comparison for the purposes of selection, averaging and validation is a problem found throughout statistics. Within the Bayesian paradigm, these problems all require the calculation of the posterior probabilities of models within a…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-08 Yan Zhou , Adam M Johansen , John A D Aston

Bayes linear analysis and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) are techniques commonly used in the Bayesian analysis of complex models. In this article we connect these ideas by demonstrating that regression-adjustment ABC algorithms…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-12-10 D. J. Nott , Y. Fan , L. Marshall , S. A. Sisson

This paper proposes a generalization of Gaussian mixture models, where the mixture weight is allowed to behave as an unknown function of time. This model is capable of successfully capturing the features of the data, as demonstrated by…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-09 Michel H. Montoril , Leandro T. Correia , Helio S. Migon

We propose a new sampling algorithm combining two quite powerful ideas in the Markov chain Monte Carlo literature -- adaptive Metropolis sampler and two-stage Metropolis-Hastings sampler. The proposed sampling method will be particularly…

Computation · Statistics 2021-01-05 Anirban Mondal , Kai Yin , Abhijit Mandal

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a statistical learning technique to calibrate and select models by comparing observed data to simulated data. This technique bypasses the use of the likelihood and requires only the ability to…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-04 Pierre-Olivier Goffard , Patrick J. Laub

We characterise the convergence of the Gibbs sampler which samples from the joint posterior distribution of parameters and missing data in hierarchical linear models with arbitrary symmetric error distributions. We show that the convergence…

Methodology · Statistics 2007-10-24 Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Gareth Roberts

This paper presents a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample from the posterior distribution of conjugate mixture models. This algorithm relies on a flexible split-merge procedure built using the particle Gibbs sampler. Contrary to…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-30 Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Arnaud Doucet , Andrew Roth

Recently developed particle flow algorithms provide an alternative to importance sampling for drawing particles from a posterior distribution, and a number of particle filters based on this principle have been proposed. Samples are drawn…

Computation · Statistics 2014-12-01 Pete Bunch , Simon Godsill

Bayesian optimization through Gaussian process regression is an effective method of optimizing an unknown function for which every measurement is expensive. It approximates the objective function and then recommends a new measurement point…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-17 Hildo Bijl , Thomas B. Schön , Jan-Willem van Wingerden , Michel Verhaegen

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-12 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

We show that it is feasible to carry out exact Bayesian inference for non-Gaussian state space models using an adaptive Metropolis Hastings sampling scheme with the likelihood approximated by the particle filter. Furthermore, an adapyive…

Computation · Statistics 2009-11-03 Ralph Silva , Paolo Giordani , Robert Kohn , Mike Pitt
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