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A new method called "variational sampling" is proposed to estimate integrals under probability distributions that can be evaluated up to a normalizing constant. The key idea is to fit the target distribution with an exponential family model…

Computation · Statistics 2013-10-15 Alexis Roche

Computing the exact likelihood of data in large Bayesian networks consisting of thousands of vertices is often a difficult task. When these models contain many deterministic conditional probability tables and when the observed values are…

Computation · Statistics 2012-06-26 Ydo Wexler , Dan Geiger

High-energy physics requires the generation of large numbers of simulated data samples from complex but analytically tractable distributions called matrix elements. Surrogate models, such as normalizing flows, are gaining popularity for…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-05-27 Annalena Kofler , Vincent Stimper , Mikhail Mikhasenko , Michael Kagan , Lukas Heinrich

Importance sampling is a popular method for efficient computation of various properties of a distribution such as probabilities, expectations, quantiles etc. The output of an importance sampling algorithm can be represented as a weighted…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-18 Henrik Hult , Pierre Nyquist

We derive explicit bounds for the computation of normalizing constants $Z$ for log-concave densities $\pi = \exp(-U)/Z$ with respect to the Lebesgue measure on $\mathbb{R}^d$. Our approach relies on a Gaussian annealing combined with recent…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-01 Nicolas Brosse , Alain Durmus , Éric Moulines

Energy-Based Models (EBMs) provide a flexible framework for generative modeling, but their training remains theoretically challenging due to the need to approximate normalization constants and efficiently sample from complex, multi-modal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Davide Carbone

Population annealing is a powerful sequential Monte Carlo algorithm designed to study the equilibrium behavior of general systems in statistical physics through massive parallelism. In addition to the remarkable scaling capabilities of the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-10-19 Paul L. Ebert , Denis Gessert , Martin Weigel

In ordinary importance sampling with a nonnegative integrand there exists an importance sampling strategy with zero variance. Practical sampling strategies are often based on approximating that optimal solution, potentially approaching zero…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-02 Art B. Owen

We present a computational strategy for the evaluation of multidimensional integrals on hyper-rectangles based on Markovian stochastic exploration of the integration domain while the integrand is being morphed by starting from an initial…

Applications · Statistics 2016-05-04 Mirco Zerbetto , Diego Frezzato

Many statistical applications involve models for which it is difficult to evaluate the likelihood, but from which it is relatively easy to sample. Approximate Bayesian computation is a likelihood-free method for implementing Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-29 Wentao Li , Paul Fearnhead

Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo method which designs estimators of expectations under a target distribution using weighted samples from a proposal distribution. When the target distribution is complex, such as multimodal distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Anas Cherradi , Yazid Janati , Alain Durmus , Sylvain Le Corff , Yohan Petetin , Julien Stoehr

In Bayesian inference, the approximation of integrals of the form $\psi = \mathbb{E}_{F}{l(X)} = \int_{\chi} l(\mathbf{x}) d F(\mathbf{x})$ is a fundamental challenge. Such integrals are crucial for evidence estimation, which is important…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-24 Jyotishka Datta , Nicholas G. Polson

Normalizing flows are tractable density models that can approximate complicated target distributions, e.g. Boltzmann distributions of physical systems. However, current methods for training flows either suffer from mode-seeking behavior,…

This study presents an importance sampling formulation based on adaptively relaxing parameters from the indicator function and/or the probability density function. The formulation embodies the prevalent mathematical concept of relaxing a…

Applications · Statistics 2024-04-11 Jianhua Xian , Ziqi Wang

Discrete Markov random fields are undirected graphical models that capture complex conditional dependencies between discrete variables. Conducting exact posterior inference in these models is often computationally challenging because…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Giuseppe Arena , Maarten Marsman

Probabilistic models in physics often require from the evaluation of normalized Boltzmann factors, which in turn implies the computation of the partition function Z. Getting the exact value of Z, though, becomes a forbiddingly expensive…

Computational Physics · Physics 2024-04-18 A. Prat Pou , E. Romero , J. Martí , F. Mazzanti

We study the problem of sampling from a distribution $\mu$ with density $\propto e^{-V}$ for some potential function $V:\mathbb R^d\to \mathbb R$ with query access to $V$ and $\nabla V$. We start with the following standard assumptions: (1)…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Yuchen He , Zhehan Lei , Jianan Shao , Chihao Zhang

Adaptive importance sampling is a class of techniques for finding good proposal distributions for importance sampling. Often the proposal distributions are standard probability distributions whose parameters are adapted based on the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-10 Topi Paananen , Juho Piironen , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Aki Vehtari

The work is devoted to the analysis of the Resampling method proposed by A. Andronov and to the analysis of the Resampling method application possibility to the estimation and simulation of the calculation and logical systems reliability.…

Applications · Statistics 2013-04-25 Maxim Fioshin

An essential problem in statistics and machine learning is the estimation of expectations involving PDFs with intractable normalizing constants. The self-normalized importance sampling (SNIS) estimator, which normalizes the IS weights, has…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-01 Nicola Branchini , Víctor Elvira