Related papers: High-Frequency Market Manipulation Detection with …
Given a stationary point process, an intensity burst is defined as a short time period during which the number of counts is larger than the typical count rate. It might signal a local non-stationarity or the presence of an external…
Hawkes Processes are a type of point process which models self-excitement among time events. It has been used in a myriad of applications, ranging from finance and earthquakes to crime rates and social network activity analysis.Recently, a…
Hawkes process provides an effective statistical framework for analyzing the time-dependent interaction of neuronal spiking activities. Although utilized in many real applications, the classic Hawkes process is incapable of modelling…
Over the past few decades, the Hawkes process has become a popular framework for modeling temporal events thanks to its flexibility to capture different dependency structures. The objective of this work is to model call sequences emitted by…
Dynamic jumps in the price and volatility of an asset are modelled using a joint Hawkes process in conjunction with a bivariate jump diffusion. A state space representation is used to link observed returns, plus nonparametric measures of…
Hawkes processes are a self-exciting stochastic process used to describe phenomena whereby past events increase the probability of the occurrence of future events. This work presents a flexible approach for modelling a variant of these,…
An extension of the Hawkes process, the Marked Hawkes process distinguishes itself by featuring variable jump size across each event, in contrast to the constant jump size observed in a Hawkes process without marks. While extensive…
A point process for event arrivals in high frequency trading is presented. The intensity is the product of a Hawkes process and high dimensional functions of covariates derived from the order book. Conditions for stationarity of the process…
The paper constructs a multi-variate Hawkes process model of Bitcoin block arrivals and price jumps. Hawkes processes are selfexciting point processes that can capture the self- and cross-excitation effects of block mining and Bitcoin price…
We propose an extension to Hawkes processes by treating the levels of self-excitation as a stochastic differential equation. Our new point process allows better approximation in application domains where events and intensities accelerate…
Hawkes processes are a class of self-exciting point processes that are used to model complex phenomena. While most applications of Hawkes processes assume that event data occurs in continuous-time, the less-studied discrete-time version of…
Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual…
The Markov-modulated Poisson process is utilised for count modelling in a variety of areas such as queueing, reliability, network and insurance claims analysis. In this paper, we extend the Markov-modulated Poisson process framework through…
We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process that accounts for the dynamics of market prices through the impact of market order arrivals at microstructural level. Our model is a point process mainly characterized by 4 kernels associated with…
Modeling event dynamics is central to many disciplines. Patterns in observed event arrival times are commonly modeled using point processes. Such event arrival data often exhibits self-exciting, heterogeneous and sporadic trends, which is…
We provide probabilistic and computational results on Markovian multivariate Hawkes processes and induced population processes. By applying the Markov property, we characterize in closed form a joint transform, bijective to the probability…
The Hawkes model is a past-dependent point process, widely used in various fields for modeling temporal clustering of events. Extending this framework, the multidimensional marked Hawkes process incorporates multiple interacting event types…
Classic estimation methods for Hawkes processes rely on the assumption that observed event times are indeed a realisation of a Hawkes process, without considering any potential perturbation of the model. However, in practice, observations…
The Hawkes model is suitable for describing self and mutually exciting random events. In addition, the exponential decay in the Hawkes process allows us to calculate the moment properties in the model. However, due to the complexity of the…
This paper proposes a new approach for change point detection in multivariate Hawkes processes using Fr\'echet statistic of a network. The method splits the point process into overlapping windows, estimates kernel matrices in each window,…